For those who think that Obama is getting some special scrutiny here, I should remind you of other front-running candidates who have been sunk by far less than this.
For example, who remembers George Allen? He was the new Republican hope two years ago. But he got caught on video calling a heckler ‘macaca’. No one even knew what it meant. But hey, it must be racist, right? The media did flips and twists to scour the globe looking for the word, to try and tie a racial connotation to it. They found out that French colonials in the Belgian Congo had used the word as an epithet. Well, Allen must be a racist then. The video was played over and over again, and Allen’s campaign was finished.
Howard Dean let loose one “YEAARGH!” that looked a little manic, and he was done.
John McCain was beating Bush handily until rumors surfaced that he had fathered a black baby, just as the nomination contest was moving into South Carolina. Bush beat him, and McCain never recovered.
Party nomination contests are often dirty, and it doesn’t take much to sink a candidate because the primary criterion to winning is electability. Anything that casts doubt on that is trouble.
But the reason Allen was sunk by ‘Macaca’ is because it played into people’s suspicions of him in the first place. And because it was caught on video, so it gave fodder for TV networks to replay over, and over, and over. The gaffes that kill politicians are ones that play into their perceived flaws or the public’s fears. If there’s video, ramp up the damage by a factor of 10.
Obama so far has weathered the Rezko issue, the Bill Ayers issue, and the Revend Wright issue. But if this sinks him, it won’t be anything that hasn’t happened to a dozen other promising candidates. If anything, he’s taken more hits than most candidates would be able to withstand - probably because he’s up against another weak and polarizing candidate with her own baggage.
But this does not bode well for him in the general election.