Stalingrad was never encircled by the Germans. It was encircled by the Soviets….
My mistake. The point remains that Kiev != Ukraine, capturing the city would neither end the war or pacify the locals, and a besieged population that is highly determined to fight for its homeland can hold out for a very long time.
Well if you are using WW2, analogies, them note Kiev was encircled twice in the war and both times the defenders capitulated.
WW2 examples are not really relevant here.
To return to the OP…Don’t dismiss the possibility that Putin is unbalanced. From this excellent article:
Fueled by his fears of COVID, Putin, long a secluded figure, has become increasingly isolated, and
People who have known him for decades say this has deepened a pent-up resentment of the West and a fixation on Russia’s shared history with Ukraine — making him more aggressive and unpredictable than ever.
“He’s even more isolated than Stalin,” says Gleb Pavlovsky, a former adviser. “In the last years of his life, Stalin didn’t come to the Kremlin and lived in his dacha, but the politburo came to see him and they talked and drank. Putin doesn’t have that. He’s as isolated as he can be. And in that situation rational issues become irrational”.
Also…
As Putin’s circle became more limited, the picture of the world he received became more distorted.
He and his confidants would increasingly spout bizarre conspiracy theories that the West was bent on destroying Russia through everything from gay marriage to anti-corruption activist Alexei Navalny.
Do I think all this means Putin has snapped? No. Nor do I think he’s poised on the precipice. I do, however, think his world view has become increasingly skewed, particularly in regards to Ukraine, which has pissed him off time and again by rebelling against his corrupt Ukrainian allies and by its application to NATO, the very organization that rejected his bid 20+ years ago.
He’s too delusional to realize that if he takes Ukraine, he’ll never really have it. Ukrainians have proven repeatedly that they’re a feisty bunch with tremendous stamina. They’ll be using guerrilla tactics for decades, if need be.
The High & Mighty aren’t like you and me (unless Putin is an SDMB member). When you are surrounded by sycophants and yes-men, have unlimited funds, no constraints on what you can do, and a vast, powerful army at your beck & call, the world looks quite different. There’s no doubt that your mental state is affected.
Putin is 69. Though far from ancient, that is well within the range common to dementia, so it is a possibility.
I have another theory. As a former KGB hardliner, he was vehemently against the breakup of the Soviet Union, and his wet dream is “reunification” with himself being the hero that gets it done. Bordering on 70, he is probably feeling that he has a finite amount of time to get this done and, up to this point and in all honesty, he hasn’t accomplished any of it. The Ukraine is the first step and, much like Hitler with Austria, he is starting there.
Appeasement doesn’t work with the totalitarian mindset. It is not viewed as a compromise given to preserve peace but, instead, is viewed as weakness and a signal that it is time to take more. If he is successful, I fully believe he intends to continue.
And as to the earlier question as to how come if he’s a “man on a mission” he has waited this long, it’s not as if he has been sitting on his hands all this time — just that he did not feel he had to do it like this (and probably felt he was not ready until recently). With politics, dark ops, and limited military action he had secured Belarus’ status as a satellite, picked up pieces of Georgia, grabbed Crimea, garnered support from Western populists … and all along kept supporting pro-Russian parties in Ukraine, but these failed to hold on to power for long enough. Like I said earlier, he may have lost patience with how long it was taking, and felt he finally had the force balance to risk going for it “the hard way”.
Ehhh, needs more table.
[shouting] CAN YOU HEAR ME NOW?!!
He’s going to need to set up a video conference just to have a meeting in that room. ![]()
In Putin’s mind, I wonder if this was mostly intended to put Belarus and Kazakhstan on notice. Both were showing early symptoms of a Euromaidan moment. I think a lot of the confusion in the north is because most of those units thought they were in Belarus just to prop up Lukashenko.
If various reports about Putin’s health are even partially correct, he probably doesn’t want anybody to get a good look at him.
The last time Russia conquered Ukraine, they held it for two hundred and eight years.
Occupying a country was much easier before the invention of the AK-47. And Nationalism.
Times have changed.
We’re not talking ancient history here. Russia occupied Ukraine thirty-one years ago.
This is not a justification for the Russian invasion. But we should note that Russian control of Ukraine is not some crazy pipe dream. It’s a very realistic possibility.
I’m highly tempted to use that photo as a background in my next Teams meeting.
“I ordered 48 inch table…”
Is it out of COVID fears?
If so is that just extreme fear or does it raise suspicion of some actual serious medical condition?