I really think the problem is in the system. The government simply has too much power, and power corrupts-- or it attracts the corruptable. I have no faith that either party can control itself once it gets its grubby hands on the reigns of power.
My best case scenario is gridlock, and it’s just a matter of deciding which party I want in the legislative branch and which I want in the executive. I haven’t figured out which combo works best (or I should say: causes the least amount of damage).
I tend to agree that what might be running out of steam, in terms of popular support, is not conservative principles per se, but conservative cronyism and radicalism.
Actually, a number of conservative principles are currently gaining favor through having been annexed by liberals. Democrats are now selling themselves as defenders of fiscal responsibility and clean government, for example, which back in 1994 were classic conservative rallying cries. Similarly, conservatives eventually came to support policies of anti-racism and anti-sexism, so those liberal principles gained strength even when “liberalism” as a movement was losing popularity.
I too think that there’s hope if moderate Republicans and principled conservatives stand up for their principles. I was surprised it didn’t happen a few years ago when their radical colleagues started calling them “Republicans in Name Only” and cold-shouldering them off committees.
IMO, what’s taken over the country at present is not so much “conservatism” as an irresponsible, domineering, corrupt political machine. Machine politicians fundamentally don’t care all that much about political principles or competing ideologies; what they care about is power and profit.
This particular political machine happens to be using conservatism as its main PR tool for reasons of convenience. (E.g., that’s where most of their political connections are; conservatism provides some superficial ideological cover for the never-ending tax cuts and dismantling of regulation; conservative supporters tend to have more financial resources; the military that the machine exploits for political adventures trends conservative; and so forth.)
If a machine can similarly benefit by using liberal ideas as its PR tool (think DeSapio’s revived “Tammany Hall” Democratic machine in New York in the 1950’s, with its support of rent control, youth suffrage, etc.), it’ll do the same. Ideas are not what machine politics are really about.
I feel some sympathy for the hacks currently in power. What most of their base wants is simply internally inconsistent. A small part of their base is honest but is (rightly) unelectable.
Look at the budget and you will find that US government is essentially a large pension plan that happens to have an army. Medicare, social security and the share of Medicaid going to the elderly comprise a huge and growing share of total spending. Maintaining these programs -which the public likes and wants- is simply inconsistent with the Republican tax cut plan. The few conservatives with a logically consistent plan --i.e. roll the clock back to 1929-- have an electorally tiny constituency (Norquist).
The interesting side effect, is that when you stop caring about budget deficits, you stop caring about the wasteful spending of $50 billion dimes and nickels (over 5 years). All that’s left is the Machine.
Nothing wins like a winner though. The wild card here is that McCain could trounce any Democrat that went up against him, if only he could get through the Republican primaries.