I’m posting this question in In My Humble Opinion because I want people to feel free expressing their opinions without having to have a citation for them.
So what do you think?
Nope - not until the economy begins to turn around will we see a trend upwards. That is a bit doom and gloom but our economic woes have been quietly ignored for almost 2 years, this was the inevitable collapse. I’m forced to leave my interests where they are because I do not want to lose them - so I’ll ride it out then diversify
Honestly, I don’t think it has. I think it won’t go much lower, mainly because there are probably some undervalued companies out there now. But I think it will be a long time before we even see the Dow back to 10K, much less to where it was even in the middle of this year.
When people say that the market can’t go lower, I’m reminded of the Great Depression, when prices declined for years after the big crash.
I’ve been wondering the same thing, and have been coming up with the same answer as everyone else. Wait until this Christmas season craps out worse than any in history, and the other chains hanging on by a thread go under. I think we’ll see 7,000 before we see 10,000.
I think we’ll definitely see a lower low than we’ve seen so far. However, I also think that in ten years from now, you’ll look back at today as a good time to have bought. Not the best time, but a good time.
I’m expecting the Dow to go below 6,000 before it bottoms out.
I believe by the time the true bottom is revealed, the market will be up by 30% and you would have missed the “bottom”.
Between a bad Christmas season ahead and Chapter 11 for the Big Three I think the market still has a couple of thousand to fall. If oil goes back up or the airlines need a bailout then we could end up closer to 4k before this all shakes out. But all that said if you’ve got time then this is a good time to buy.
I thought they always said hemlines go down in a bad economy . . . 
evil 
I’d say that we’ve got a little falling left to do. If i knew just how much, I’d pull my money out of it’s cd and wait with baited breath :-P. If we dip below 7k i’ll buy with my loose cash.
In the mid-70s, the DJIA bottomed around 600, correcting for inflation gives about 2300 now.
- We have a long way to go.
- This situation is much worse than the 1970s.
8000 is still a stock market bubble. The current prices (let alone last year’s) are madness.
Random question: how do i edit my post? I noticed an embarrassing typo and can’t find a button for it.
You can only edit a post within a 5 minute time frame. After that, it is there forever.
For something really egregious, a mod sometimes will help out, but I doubt you have anything to worry about. I’d let it go.
Problem is, when you buy a stock you are supposed to figure out the fair valuation for it based on published financial info and it’s sales potential. But for financial companies that info has been shown to be mostly fiction. Sales outlook for any company is sucking pond water right now and nobody knows when things will pick up. You can’t assume even a basically healthy business will do OK if they can’t borrow capital to fund expansion and operations.
Other factors: There’s this little neutron bomb called collatoralized debt swaps (CDO’s) hanging out there that are theoretically worth more than all the money in the world thanks to our astoundingly dipshit lack of regulation. They are all interlocking and they all pay off 100 to 1 or more if the underlying debt goes south. It reminds me a lot of the political situation in Europe just before WWI, financially speaking. These are the gizmos that Warren Buffet called weapons of mass financial destruction. Nobody knows how that will play out and until we do, nobody is getting too happy about a recovery.
Then there’s the 70% of the American economy that is based on consumer spending. But with declining real estate values, no more home equity loans, zero savings, and a pile of credit card debt, your average family isn’t going to prop up the economy any more.
Contraction and de-leveraging tend to feed on themselves, producing a market overshoot on the down side, and irrational pessimism which tends to make itself come true.
But mainly, America doesn’t make much stuff any more while China and India most definitely do. All that bullshit about how that doesn’t matter because of the New Economy is just a bunch of hot air. Our top export is lawyers and accountants, and right about now the rest of the world isn’t too impressed with either. I expect things could get a lot worse and I doubt if we will get back to our previous standard of wealth for a very long time.
By the way, when you are figuring out your retirement, don’t count on Social Insecurity. And if you have any 401k plans don’t forget that you pay the taxes when you withdraw the money. At the tax rate that is imposed at the time. If things get real bad, expect that to be upward of 50%. I would be headed for the exit right now if there was one.
Sorry about your day. I’ll shut the hell up now.
The after market close reports about Citigroup indicate Friday will be a bad day on Wall Street. It doesn’t help when the Treasury Secretary said the financial crisis now plaguing the world economy is something that happens “once or twice” in 100 years. With Congress about to recess for a long Thanksgiving holiday, the Detroit Three will have to wait. The markets won’t like that.
We are nowhere near bottom just yet.
Dow 5000, baby!
Invest in the future. Invest in VeriChip.
Certainly not here in Canada - we have the strongest banking system on the planet, but the Toronto Stock Exchange and the Loonie are taking daily hits. I also don’t think we’ve heard all of the financial malpractices that have been going on for the last few years. Naked short selling, Collateralized debt swaps; I feel sure there are more of these out there.
Good read, Jaglavak, and others. Thanks.