I live in Maine, and during a presidential election you often hear that there are only two states in the nation that can split their electoral votes, us and Nebraska. Has it ever actually happened?
Yes in 2008 Obama got one vote out of Nebraska. The notion that an electoral vote could have gone to a Democrat so offends Nebraska Republicans that there has been some talk of changing the rules.
Yes. In 2008, Obama got one of Nebraska’s votes. The State GOP redistrcted to make sure that it wouldn’t happen again.
AIUI they already did. Maine has never split its EV’s but still has the rule.
Maine adopted districted electoral votes in 1969, and at that time, it was possibly the one state where it was least likely to make a difference. (Perhaps that’s not so odd; perhaps that’s why the change sailed through the legislature with little controversy or attention.) Maine’s two House districts, at the time, usually voted within a percentage point of each other, and both were close to the national average.
In 1972, for example–the first election under the new system–Nixon won 61% in the 1st, 62% in the 2nd, and 61% nationwide. The districts, realistically, could split only in a very, very close election.
But sure enough, such an election happened in 1976. On Election Night, with Ohio on a razor’s edge and Hawaii uncertain, it looked for a while like the election might come down to the last electoral vote–and that Maine might split.
As it turned out, neither happened. Jimmy Carter won Ohio and with it a substantial majority in the EC, and Gerald Ford carried both Maine districts, winning the 1st 127,019 to 123,598 and the 2nd 109,301 to 108,861.
Republicans carried both districts easily in 1980, 1984, and 1988.
Things got interesting again in 1992, when Ross Perot ran well in Maine. (Maine has traditionally been hospitable to independents, and has elected several independent governors.) The Clinton-Bush-Perot split was 40-32-28 in the 1st and 38-29-33 in the 2nd. This was the closest (in percentage terms) that Ross Perot came to winning an electoral vote, anywhere.
Since 1996, two things have happened. Maine has become a reliably blue state, with large Democratic majorities, but a gap has opened between the two districts, with the 1st deep blue and the 2nd light blue. In 2012, Obama carried the 1st with 60% and the 2nd with 53%. So we could see a split at some time in the future, but only if Maine as a whole becomes substantially more Republican.
Well, that’s probably more than you wanted to know about Maine. More on Nebraska later.
Nebraska adopted districted electoral votes in 1991. I am unable to state why. All three of Nebraska’s House districts were heavily Republican at the time.
The unicameral Nebraska legislature is elected on a nonpartisan basis, although the partisan affiliation of most lawmakers is well known. The change in law was introduced by a Democrat, DiAnna Schimek, who may have reasoned that while Democrats had no hope of winning the state as a whole, they might one day pick off one of the districts. In any case the bill attracted enough Republican support to pass, and was signed into law by a Democratic Governor, Ben Nelson.
For 16 years the change was meaningless. Democrats never came closer than 11 points in any district in any election, and came that close only when Ross Perot was running in 1992.
Then, somehow, in 2008 Barack Obama carried the Omaha-centric 2nd district by 50% to 49%. The identical district had gone for Bush over Kerry by 60% to 38% in 2004. This was an astonishing turnaround in four years. Of course it occurred partly because Democrats campaigned in 2008 after their polling told them they had a chance to win the district.
The 2011 reapportionment followed, and as noted the legislature made the 2nd more Republican. Obama probably would not have repeated the 2nd district win anyhow. The results in 2012 were D1, Romney 57-41, D2 Romney 53-46, D3 Romney 70-28.
If Republicans wish, they can permanently foreclose the possibility of a repeat split vote by reverting to WTA. They have introduced bills to do so just about every two years. But, the Nebraska unicameral allows filibustering. To date Democrats and a few dissident Republicans have prevented advocates from raising the necessary two-thirds majority to cut off a filibuster.
Great posts, Freddy.
Yes, indeed.
This may also interest you: National Popular Vote Interstate Compact - Wikipedia