Have the White Sox clinched a wild card spot? (at least)

Factual Questions
1

Here’s my logic:

The White Sox currently have a 95 wins. If they lose the rest of their games than their winning percentage will be .5864.

If Boston and New York both win tonight, Boston will have 93 wins and New York will have 94. Three possible scenarios from their series this weekend

New York takes 3:
New York wins the division with 97 wins, Boston has 93 – White Sox win the wild card with 95 wins

New York takes 2:
New York wins the division with 96 wins, Boston has 94 wins, White Sox win the wild card with 95 wins.

Boston takes 2:
Division is tied with 95 wins. One game play off. Winner will take the division,
loser will have 95 wins along with the White Sox, BUT only a .5828 winning percentage because of the extra loss. White Sox win the wild card.

Boston takes 3:
Boston takes the division with 96 wins, New York has 94 wins, White Sox win the wild card with 95 wins.
This hasn’t been announced anywhere, so I assume that I’m missing something in my logic…

2

I admit to being thoroughly ignorant of such matters, but I’d find it a bit surprising that the playoff game counts toward wild-card selection. No doubt a knowledgeable doper will soon be along to clarify this.

3

Here’s where your logic is faulty I think there would be another playoff game between NY and Chicago, since that loss is from an extra game they would not have normally played, and thus it wouldn’t really be fair to give Chicago the wildcard, since both teams had identical regular season records.

But you are also forgetting about Cleveland in this scenario. Odds are, the White Sox will take the Central, and then it’s a three way race between NY, Boston, and the Tribe to set the AL east (obvously just NY and Boston here) and the AL wildcard.

But regardless of what the outcome will be, this is one of the most exciting post-season races in a long time. I’m looking forward to these last few games.

Go Sox! (Red Sox, in case you didn’t know)

4

Chicago has clinched at least a tie for the wild card.

Their worst case scenario is finishing in second place, a game behind Cleveland.

Then the Red Sox and Yankees tie.

Under new tiebreakers rule, the Red Sox and Yankees would play a tiebreaker for the AL East.

The loser of that would play the White Sox in a second tiebreaker for the wild card spot.

So the tiebreakers are regular season games, but you would have to forget the standings in this instance.

5

At least in past years, MLB’s policy was that if two team tie for a division with X wins, and another team wins X games in a wild card position, the two division-tied teams play one playoff game and the loser of that game then plays an additional game against the wild card qualifier.

MLB’s “What if?” page, curiously, not does address this scenario for 2005. They address every other conceivable scenario, though. At this point, though, it seems very unlikely that both Boston and New York will win tonight AND win exactly the right number of games in their series AND have Chicago lose every remaining game, so I don’t think it matters.

6

The rule was changed in 2003.

If all four teams (Cleveland, Chicago, Boston, and New York) tie with the same record.

They have a playoff on Monday between the teams in the division to decide that.

The losers then playoff Tuesday.

Meanwhile the Angels sit back and cackle quietly.

7

Or they curse their luck at being in the AL, when if they were in the NL, they could have taken the West Division without having to have worked so hard to win.

8

Here’s an analysis from the BP:

9

AL Central Division champs! :cool:

My co-workers and I were discussing this today during the game (well, we were watching the web cast) and this exact question came up. This one co-worker in our group who has the most knowledge of baseball rules said that if the Tribe were to tie the Chi-Sox in terms of record, then the Sox would win because they have a better head-to-head record. Also, she said that no other team can finish with 96 wins or more and place second in their division. So, I think BobT’s first post is correct. Am I right?

10

It’s now wholly academic; the White Sox beat Detroit today. They now cannot miss the playoffs.

Even if Cleveland were to catch up, the White Sox cannot finish worse than 96-67 after a tiebreaker, and one of either New York or Boston must finish with fewer than 96 wins.

11

yep - they’re the Central Division Champs. Period. Punto final.
whew

12

On review, my implication that the White Sox might have to play a tiebreaker to decide if they have a division title or a wild card title is wrong. In fact, even if Cleveland ties them, Chicago must win the division.

MLB only plays tiebreakers to determine what teams make the playoffs or don’t - not to determine who is the wild card and who is the division champion. If Cleveland wins today and then sweeps Chicago, they will both be 96-66, but since Boston and New York cannot both win 96 games, Chicago and Cleveland would both make the playoffs. In that instance which is the wild card would be determined by head-to-head record.

13

Well, they just clinched the division today defeating Detroit. At best, the Indians can tie for the division lead, and in the season series, the White Sox are up 11-5, so they win the division.

14

I believe you are–as is BobT. Here’s what I found on MLB’s website regarding 3 way ties for playoff positions:

BUT!!! It’s a moot point!!! At least in 2005

Go White Sox!!!