Do people still actually fall for three card monte? How could enough people out there not know it’s a scam for it to be profitable?
I saw a shell game, a three card monte varient, being played on the Rambla in Barcelona. It was fascinating to watch and figure out who the confederates were. There were several in just one game; a couple of look outs, a few in the crowd, a rover who pulled cash out of the game and the guy running the game.
Of course I know 3 card Monte is fixed.
But I’ve got the last laugh. There’s this Nigerian millionaire who is ready to deposit a huge sum in my bank account. Huge!
They know it’s a scam but they think they’ve figured out a way to beat the scam.
Yes, it’ll be another manifestation of the Dunning-Kruger effect:
"Sure, Three Card Monte works on all these saps, but I am different and special - I shall find that lady, and walk off with my pockets full of doubloons. These poor professional grifters will rue the day they tried their petty scam on one as quick-sighted and street-smart as I…
What the fuck? That was the queen right there. I actually saw it when he fumbled it. Oh, this is bullshit, man, bullshit!"
[peeve]That’s not what that is.[/p]
The Dunning Kruger effect is (at this end of the scale) the tendency of the incompetent to be unable to identify their own incompetence. As anyone who plays Three Card Monte is self-evidently both incompetent and unable to assess their own incompetence, I think it’s a rather good example.
Incidentally, the fact that people in this thread are baffled by the idea that anyone would play Three Card Monte is a good illustration of the DK effect at the other end of the scale - the tendency of the competent to over-estimate other people’s abilities.
My understanding of the game is there is never a red card. Basically a simple magic trick. So you have a 0-in-3 chance of getting the card.
Exactly. Or, perhaps there is a red card but the dealer will never show it to you. Or if you do suss out the particular trick he used this time, he just won’t take your bet. Or, if he doesn’t get a shill bet in or change the rules he just might not pay you. Or he may yell “COPS!” and just run with your cash.
It’s not a game, it’s a scam.
Absolutely true: One night tipping a few beers with college buddies (early 80’s) in a semi-crowded Milwaukee dive, a couple of guys were running a Three Card Monte from table to table. When they got to us, the game ran quick and we all bet a few bucks just for the novelty of it (the dealer had a great street-patter). They probably got a total of $5 out of us, but my friend actually won. We all asked him afterward if he was in cahoots with the guys, but he said the strategy was obvious: Never bet on the card you think is the red one, and you have a 50-50 chance.
About 15 minutes later the dealers were hustled out by bouncers–not sure why, but running a game like that it’s easy to overstay your welcome…
It’s well known that the only guys to ever win at Three Card Monte were Run DMC. Now THAT’S tricky.
For a simple and brief example of how this (and other scams) can work with an accomplice, I recommend The Flim-Flam Man, a movie with George C. Scott.