Lots of people believe that they know where health care spending goes (i.e. why American spending is roughly double that of any other modern nations.) You probably believe you know. Most likely, though, you are wrong.
So first, let’s get rid of some myths. (PPPY = Per Person Per Year)
- 1 –
Universal Health Care Cuts Spending
If you look at this image from the NY Times, you will see that of 30 nations, their year-to-year spending increase has been largely consistent. Several of these nations have changed to UHC during the period of time that is shown, but there is no way to tell from looking at this graph which nations these were, nor at what time it was that they changed their system of health care. If UHC changed the course of health care spending, you would be able to see that in this graph.
- 2 –
Private Insurance Explains Our Spending
Firstly, both Israel and Switzerland rely on private insurance and their spending is in range of other European nations.
Now let’s look at actual administration costs of private insurance. Numbers vary; this survey says that average health care administration costs are about $1000 PPPY in the US, and about $300 per person in Canada. This review (PDF), however, lists Medicare administrative spending as 5% of revenue and private insurance as at about 9%. Medicare revenue is about $6600 PPPY, so this would be $330 in administration cost. Calculating private insurance cost from what information is in the document is a bit more difficult. Assuming a similar $6600 per person value at 9%, cost would be ~$590 per person. Assuming 160 million people covered by private insurance and a total administrative cost of $85 billion, administrative costs of private insurance per person would be ~$530. This table from the Canadian National Health Expenditure Database puts administration costs as wavering around 3.6% of total costs per year. This table, gives total spending as $3300CA or ~$3000US, which would be only $100US per person.
Really about all we can say is that somewhere between $200 to $700 can theoretically be saved in there, so we’ll average that to $450.
Since the US pays about $3000 more in health care than any other nation, even saving that $450 wouldn’t bring us to norm (nor would the $700).
I will also note that the likely reason for private insurance administration costing more is due to scale. Many more, smaller organizations have to spend more on administration than one large organization. Switzerland, for example, has 85 private insurance companies and a relatively small population. Both of these probably are factors in its spending being higher than most other nations in Europe.
- 3 –
The US Pays More for Pharmaceuticals
We do (PDF). The OECD average is about $366 dollars per person per year. The US is at about $728. So theoretically, we could save maybe $200 spending PPPY.
Again, this isn’t nearly enough to bring us down by $3000.
- 4 –
The US Has Too Many Cases of Elective Surgery
This one you might not have heard of. The idea is that countries who don’t have wait lines for health care have fewer cases of elective surgery. This does appear to be true (PDF). However, outside of heart bypass surgery, the US actually seems to generally come in below other countries without waiting lines. (Here’s another chart of just plastic surgery.)
- 5 –
Preventative Medicine Costs Less
More likely it doesn’t change the cost in any meaningful way:
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/08/business/08leonhardt.html?ex=1344225600&en=d7df12bae3f08026&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss
http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/358/7/661
- 6 –
Uncapped Malpractice Awards Mean Higher Doctors Fees
The idea, with this one, is that if doctors and hospitals have to pay less in malpractice insurance, they will have to charge less. A more thorough discussion can be read here, but personally I would have to agree that the amount of health care spending which goes towards malpractice insurance is sufficiently small that it’s largely unrelated to our discussion here.
POSSIBLY NOT MYTHS
- 7 –
Uncapped Malpractice Awards Mean Defensive Medicine
The idea is that doctors, fearing lawsuit, order an excessive number of tests and hence waste a lot of money that isn’t justified by the actual odds of there being some, more rare condition.
The answer: Dunno
If people could help search for answers to this one (e.g. how many tests are run PPPY and how much that costs on average, by nation), it would be very helpful.
- 8 –
The US Buys the Newest, Bestest Stuff
Similar to the idea that we pay more for pharmaceuticals in the US, possibly we also buy most of our equipment for a higher price.
Again, if people can try and find information on this, it would be helpful.
- 9 –
The US Tries to Keep Old People Alive Longer
I can’t find where I saw this. Basically, supposedly the US tries to keep people who are dying on artificial support more often and for longer than other nations.
Again, I would be interested in verifying and quantifying this.
Some further items that I have checked: The number of doctors per person is roughly equivalent between the US, Canada, and the UK. ~2.2 per person. The average yearly wage of a doctor is about the same between the US, Canada, and the UK. I don’t have cites for these because this is the third time I’ve started this thread without completing it, and I’ve since lost cites for this information. I don’t feel like looking it up again, but it’s true.
Since we can quantify items 1-6, for the most part, we can say for certain that at most we could save maybe $700 through any of these, leaving another $2300 to make up. 7-9 are possibly culprits of this. I have a feeling like I forgot a #10 that I intended to include. Ideally we could focus on these items or any further theories.