This famous event in the TV Series MAS*H… how likely was it?
I will preface this by saying I am not a war or Korean War expert in any way. So feel free to correct me if necessary!
However, based on what I know, it would seem pretty much impossible for this to happen in the way the actual Korean War was fought.
I am presuming there were no navigation errors on the flight leading the flight over North Korean airspace. Navigation errors were certainly possible in that day and age, but I don’t believe the writers intended Blake’s death for that sort of irony. So we’ll assume all went well there.
Henry Blake left the MAS*H in a chopper (seems more likely he’d have left by Jeep, but whatever), presumably for Seoul. Then a flight from there to Tokyo. The normal flight path from Seoul to Tokyo does indeed go over the Sea of Japan. However, by the time the Sea Of Japan is actually reached, it’s about 50 miles from the current North Korean border, and it only gets further away after that.
First, if that route was any danger, why go over the Sea of Japan? A longer, southeastern route could be taken that doesn’t go over the sea at all, but over the Strait of Korea. Yes, it’s longer, but if Blake’s plane can be shot down, MacArthur’s plane can be shot down. I think the Army would do everything to avoid a risk with a plane that isn’t mission critical, is just moving personnel out.
Second, everything I’ve read indicates that the area of the Sea of Japan Blake’s plane would have been over was on complete lockdown by UN forces. I read through the log of all US ships damaged in the Korea War, and they were 100% from mines in North Korean harbors, or from North Korean shore batteries. Apparently North Korean forces had zero ability to go out and do anything at sea. So any air forces are venturing out, 50 miles into enemy waters, completely without cover.
Third, why? What are you attacking? Surface to air missiles were a few years away. From my reading, seems like it was conventional shelling/shore batteries (about 5 to 10 miles on that, nowhere near Blake’s plane) or it’s a conventional bombing/fighter run. But what are you seeking if Blake’s plane is what you find? You have a choice in deploying your air forces. Over land, where you have a lot better support, actual relevant targets you can hit. Or over sea, where you have no support whatsoever. And what targets are you seeking? If Blake’s plane is what you find, seems like you’re on a fishing expedition.
Fourth, Blake’s plane may have been an Army plane, but it wasn’t a combat plane. Even if you accept the trillion to one possibility that a North Korean fighter actually gets 50+ miles over sea into UN airspace, the plane you’re shooting down isn’t engaged in combat. You may be violating rules of engagement and starting battles you can’t finish. I know this stuff goes on anyway, but it doesn’t seem too smart.
Fifth, Blake could have easily been written to die at or near the unit. I know the writers were going for a more ironic ending. The irony is that when the show did have incidents where there was shelling or actual dangers of being shot at the camp, the show typically played them for laughs or pacifism. Probably to counteract the more gung-ho characters like Frank Burns and Colonel Flagg. But they were only three miles from the front, sure, I can buy anyone dying there from some stray action. Miles and miles away from the action, over the Sea of Japan? Not buying that anymore.
But maybe I’m all wrong. Thoughts?
