Imagine the inside of a tail section with pulleys, levers and cable. Now imagine a trim tab ripped out with the cables and levers left to flail next to the other levers and cables. Given the other example of exactly the same event happening what are the odds that the same result occured?
control surfaces were often fabric in early aircraft. The first 3 models of P-51’s had fabric covered elevators. And I would point out that part of the elevator was indeed ripped off in the form of a trim tab. 450 mph is not a good speed to test the plane with parts missing.
When you triple the amount of HP then the resulting thrust exceeds the normal parameters of control surfaces. Both the elevator and ailerons may require full control input to compensate for this so I would expect unlimited-class racers to modify their planes to compensate for this.
We really don’t know yet. They could just change the flight rules to minimize this kind of accident, like they did with airshow rules after some planes crashed into spectators in Germany.
The insurance rate for air shows probably went up a little. That’s what insurance is for. The insurer may require the race be moved further away from the crowd. I can’t even count the number of crashes at Oshkosh over the years. Fortunately most of the accidents don’t involve the public directly. The last Mustang crash there was right in front of my plane but fortunately the accident was confined to the runway and also fortunately I didn’t see it happen.
Granted I wasn’t actually there, and I’m limited to what video is down on the internet, but the images I’ve seen don’t actually show any “spiral” or “corkscrew” action. It really does look like it went straight in, no rolling motion once the nose pointed to the ground.
He didn’t go exactly staight in. It may have looked like it, but there was a significant angle at impact or the debris wouldn’t have blown into the box seats at high speed.
The accounts I’ve heard had the plane pitch up violently, roll, and dive into the ground. The other reason I think it must have rolled towards the crowd is that the flight line for race planes is actually quite a distance from the crowd - there’s a large tarmac in front of the box seats, then a grass infield, then the runway. The race planes should be over the runway flying straight and level before they reach the crowd, and maybe 500 ft away from the grandstands. For the plane to impact where it did, it had to be significantly off course. A roll towards the audience would do that.
No, you misunderstand - I am not, of course, disputing it hit the ground at an angle, or that it was off course. I’m just saying that in the videos I’ve seen of it actually going in there seems to be no spiral or corkscrew motion. That may be a result of the angle at which the event was filmed but it doesn’t look like a spin to me. A dive, yes, but not a spin. There does not *appear *to be any roll component or movement around the longitudinal axis.
Again, though, I’m not a professional investigator on the scene.
Broomstick: I’m not talking about a spin or an an axial roll where the airplane would rotating around its axis - more like a barrel roll at high speed. But I guess we’ll find out in the fullness of time.
That’s just chilling. For some unknown reason, I occasionally have dreams about watching planes crashing into the ground - this was an actual nightmare come true for me.
Not on a vector towards the crowd, he wasn’t. The aircraft are supposed to have completed their final turn towards the flight line well before they get to the spectator area. For safety reasons they’re supposed to be parallel to the crowd precisely so a crash will not go into the crowd.
Look at this diagram. That runway is 150 ft wide, so if this drawing is to scale, the plane should have been 1,000 ft or so from the crowd. But a pitch-up and barrel roll towards the crowd could have closed that 1000 ft gap. A fluke accident.
I don’t see how they can incorporate additional procedures that would negate this type of accident. It’s a 450 mph car race without a wall and fence to catch flying debris.
I’d say the Oshkosh air show is exponentially more dangerous than the Reno Air Race but for different reasons. There have been 3 accidents by performers in the last 5 years with 2 fatalities involving landing or taxiing. I can’t count all the crashes involving travel to and from the event.
Funny, though - while people will add up the crashes going to and from Oshkosh no one seems to care how many people get into car accidents going to and from Disneyland.
I think the Oshkosh shows are less likely to be fatal for the spectators, which is my biggest concern. I don’t like to see participants get hurt or killed but let’s face it - if you’re racing airplanes at Reno in the unlimited category you know the risks and you’ve chosen to take them. We don’t expect a show to kill the spectators.
Unfortunately, I think the only way to really protect the spectators at a Reno air race is to sit them pretty far away from the action, like binocular range.
It was so tragic and pilots understand the risks. Most of those attending the race are pilots, families of, etc…When you are racing around the pontoons (sp?) you are pulling extreme g’s. If the elevator piece broke the pilot would loose control of the plane at over 400 mph; the plane for a moment would flatten out, which is why he pushed hard to get it over the grandstands and then head straight down. He did not start his day thinking this would happen just like major car accidents or the time a fighter jet in an airshow killed hundreds of spectators while “flying way too low”, Additionally, the plane was at an angle as it raced the oval course. I have been to the Reno Air Show many times. And I am truly saddened…Of course I am no expert by any means and at the end of the day its horrid. A little information: In 2003 during the Reno Air Show three planes crashed and the pilots died, no spectators were injured or killed. No one should be that close to the action…I guess as humans we are action junkies and sometime we pay the price.
Yeah, although the races were already designed to be spectator-safe. But as Magiver points out, anything going 450 mph can close a large gap very quickly - as we saw with this crash. Horrific as it wss, if that plane had gone 10% farther when out of control, it could have blown through the grandstands, and the casualty count would have been in the hundreds.
That’s not an excuse to end the races, though. Fluke accidents happen. An airplane could go down into the crowds at Oshkosh or any big air show and kill a lot of people. Stuff happens. You can’t live life in a bubble, and all motorsports have risk.
Yes, a sudden spate of small plane crashes is usually the way I find out the date of the Oshkosh show, if I don’t happen across any ads promoting it.
My WAG is that Oshkosh is the most dangerous destination/origination airport in the world – indirectly. Every year, aside from any accidents at the show, there are three or four (maybe more?) crashes of small planes flying to it beforehand, or away from it after the show. Many of the accidents are technically not connected to Oshkosh because when they crash along they way, as the crash is during one stage of the trip between two other airports along the way.
Just from personal experience at Oshkosh I’ve walked around in areas where A/C have crashed at both the airport and in town. The P-51 that crashed a couple of years ago was directly in front of my plane at a distance of 510 feet.
Having also been to the Reno Air Race I feel safer there than Oshkosh with the exception of what now appears to be a design flaw in the P-51 tail. I suspect the FAA will focus on the trim system on this plane. It’s very possible that excessive force is being generated due to pilot input and the tail section will have to be reinforced. Just reading some of the forums on racing there are planes that require full trim input on both ailerons and elevators because of the exponential increase in hp added to the airframes.
I don’t think the air races will survive (Reno or otherwise) if spectators are moved to binocular range. As it’s set up now the stands are on the straightaway which is about as good as it gets.
I agree. Put the audience any farther away, and the experience would change dramatically.
The thing is, there was nothing unique to the air races that made this crash more likely or more deadly. This could have happened at any major airshow. Aerobatic performers do high speed passes in front of large crowds all the time. There have been many warbird crashes. This one just happened to have a failure mode that pulled the aircraft in towards the crowd.
That said, whether the races continue or not will depend on external factors like whether the organizers can get insurance or if the NTSB demands changes that make the races infeasible.
As for Oshkosh, I’m afraid I chickened out on flying my plane in. My AA1 was range-challenged in the first place, and I’ve heard too many horror stories of planes running out of gas while being 50th in line for landing. What was it like flying in, Magiver? What kind of plane did you have?
I’ve got an audio tape of the Oshkosh ATC, and it’s amazing and a bit frightening to listen to.
