I received considerable statistics on HSC from the National Highway Traffic Safety Association (NHTSA) / National Center for Statistics and Analysis (NCSA). They sent data on fatalities from HSC by state and year for 1990 through 1998, the only years I asked for. They apparently have same for earlier years. Besides by state and year, the data is broken down by the categorical position of a fatality in the HSC incident, i.e., by whether the person had been 1) in the police vehicle, 2) the chased vehicle, 3) in a vehicle not either of those, or 4) not in a vehicle. The 1990 data does not list item 1. I don’t know whether this means there were no such fatalities in that year, or whether there were some but they were not reported. No data of any type is given for a few different states in different years. Likewise, I don’t know if they had no fatalities in those years or they just didn’t report those they had.
Of course, this data doesn’t shed light on numerous facets of the chases one would like to know in order to evaluate them and their justifiability. We do not know from them:
A. The history of past or present criminality/dangerousness of the fugitive driver known at initiation of the chase.
B. Same found out later.
C. Same committed during the chase.
D. Same committed later, whether to be considered as in the normal course of the fugitive’s life or resultant from the chase per se or thereafter consequent of the chase experience
E. All of the above for any passengers in the fugitive’s vehicle. Some could even have been hostages.
F. What degree of culpability any of such passengers had in initiation or continuation of the chase.
G. All of the above as to any of the other fatalities accounted for, including those in the police vehicle, which could’ve included persons in custody.
H. Which chases were initiated only upon permission of designated at-station personnel.
I. Which were later so permitted after begun.
J. What the much large numbers of serious injuries were in these chases.
K. Numerous other facets I’ve thought of and forgotten, or that I haven’t thought of.
Anyhow, I’ll list a few of the data here:
The all-US totals in the 4 categories are, by year:
Category --> 1 . . . 2 . . . 3 . . . 4 . all cats .*
1990 . . . no rec. 266 . . .46 . . . 5 . . 317
1991 . . . . 4 . . 252 . . .46 . . . 5 . . 307
1992 . . . . 1 . . 224 . . .66 . . . 7 . . 298
1993 . . . . 1 . . 284 . . .57 . . . 5 . . 347 . .307
1994 . . . . 3 . . 284 . . .93 . . .12 . . 392 . .347
1995 . . . .10 . . 249 . . 117 . . .10 . . 386 . .386
1996 . . . . 5 . . 267 . . 109 . . . 9 . . 390 . .390
1997 . . . . 1 . . 193 . . 100 . . .11 . . 305 . .306
1998 . . . . 2 . . 198 . . 100 . . .14 . . 314
*All-state, all-category figures I reported before, from the NHTSA Website. Dunno why the disparities.
You may note that '94-'96 were particularly bloody years, and that '95 was not even a very happy scene for the cops, assuming they might be interested in something more than the glory of the chase (otherwise, by the number of them that reached the ultimate glory, it might be considered a great year).
Now, as to these national figures, we could make some quite crude assumptions in order to come up with a sort of figure of merit for each of these yearly chase records – in a non-due-process police-ocracy. Assume:
a. All fatalities in catgory 2 were “Bad Guys” (B), and all in categories 1, 3 and 4 were “Good Guys” (G).
b. The appropriate HSC figure of merit is B/(B+G) expressed in percent.
Then, from the above figures, we have these percentages:
1990 . . 84
1991 . . 82
1992 . . 75
1993 . . 65
1994 . . 72
1995 . . 65
1996 . . 68
1997 . . 63
1998 . . 63
If selection of kill by law enforcement is the measure of justice, the US, as a whole, is exactly going in the right direction, I’d say. Either the cops are getting worse or the increased traffic (and maybe road improvements) is getting to them.
Now, let’s look at some states’ records, say the 5 high-population ones and 4 more from different regions of the US, checking only for the 2 years, 1990 and 1998:
Category --> 1 . . 2. . 3 . .4 all cats . . . . . . . .1 . .2. . 3 . .4 all cats
State
. | Pop (millions)
. v |
. . . v
. . . . . . . . . 1990 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1998
Hi-Pop States:
CA . 29.8 .no rec. 51 . 10 . .0 . 61 _ _ _ CA . 32.7 . .0 . 18 . .6 . .5 . 29
FL . 12.9 .no rec. .8 . .0 . .0 . .8 _ _ _ FL . 14.9 . .1 . 14 . .5 . .0 . 20
IL . 11.4 .no rec. .5 . .2 . .1 . .8 _ _ _ IL . 12.0 . .0 . .9 . .7 . .0 . 16
NY . 18.0 .no rec. .4 . .2 . .1 . .7 _ _ _ NY . 18.2 . .0 . .0 . .2 . .0 . .2
TX . 17.0 .no rec. 29 . .7 . .0 . 36 _ _ _ TX . 19.8 . .0 . 15 . .3 . .1 . 19
By region:
GA . .6.5 .no rec. 22 . .5 . .0 . 27 _ _ _ GA . .7.6 . .0 . .9 . .0 . .0 . .9
MT . .0.8 .no rec. .1 . .0 . .0 . .1 _ _ _ MT . .0.8 . .0 . .2 . .1 . .0 . .3
IA . .2.8 .no rec. .3 . .0 . .0 . .3 _ _ _ IA . .2.9 . .0 . .1 . .0 . .0 . .1
ME . .1.2 .no rec. .1 . .0 . .0 . .1 _ _ _ ME . .1.2 . .0 . .1 . .3 . .0 . .4
Normalizing only the total fatalities wrt population (using 1997 pop for 1998 data), we get (deaths/million):
Relative total fatalities
State . 1990 . .1998
CA . . . 1.7 . . 0.9
FL . . . 0.6 . . 1.3
IL . . . 0.4 . . 1.3
NY . . . 0.2 . . 0.1
TX . . . 1.7 . . 1.0
GA . . . 3.4 . . 1.2
MT . . . 1.3 . . 0.4
IA . . . 1.1 . . 0.3
ME . . . 0.8 . . 3.3
Maybe later I’ll fill in the other years to see if there are any trends in these states and to better compare each to the others. Any state comparisons, populous-vs.-lo-pop state comparisons, regional comparisons and improvements/worsenings for a given state, that are drawn from only these two years, would probably be very noisy. But, on the face of it, one might say that:
I. CA & TX were quite bad but both about halved their problems.
II. FL & IL were quite good but both about doubled their problems.
III. NY was exceptionally good and then about halved that still.
IV. The South(east) was about twice as bad as CA & TX, but then cut their problems by about 1/3.
V. The Midwest and Mountain states were mediocre, but then cut their problems by about 1/3.
VI. Maine, representing New England, was pretty good, but went all to hell.
But actually, the kills in the last 3 states above were numerically too small to determine anything significant.
So you who wanted more statistics wade in these for a while. The full set of statistics for all states reporting, for the years 1990-1998, were faxed (via eFax) to me by NHTSA on request. I have the result in an EFX file (227 KB), which I can’t convert to any other format, but an eFax viewer (and eFax service if you want it) is available free[/url"] on the Web. I can send this file attached to an e-mail message to whomever should want it, or anyone can get it, or other years of such data, directly from [url=http://www.nhtsa.dot.gov/]NHTSA (Lyn Cianflocco, NRD-31, Ph: (202) 366-4198, (800) 934-8517 or e-mail via webmaster@nhtsa.dot.gov ).
Ray (not a statistician)