Hillary Clinton VP choice

[Buck_Godot]

@DigitalC

Oh come on, anyone worried about a woman as president is not going to change their mind because the VP is a male.

I disagree. To a certain voter, one woman, is a novelty, two women is a feminist conspiracy.

[iiandyiiii]

There are two main types of VP choices over the last few decades – someone young and “fresh” to bring a “youth and change” vibe to an older, establishment candidate, and someone older with a long political career to bring gravitas and experience to a relatively young and inexperienced candidate. I think Hillary is much likely to choose the first type, which would mean Castro and Booker are likely choices.

[Quartz]

Which presidential hopeful would accept the poisoned chalice? If Hillary were to win, the “Time for a change” view would be considerable in 8 years’ time. Of course, 8 years as the VP might be its own reward.

[JKellyMap]

@Quartz

Which presidential hopeful would accept the poisoned chalice? If Hillary were to win, the “Time for a change” view would be considerable in 8 years’ time. Of course, 8 years as the VP might be its own reward.

That’s an interesting point. Has there ever been a sitting VP who was elected president immediately after his party was already in power (presidentially speaking) for 16 years? I really doubt it.

[JKellyMap]

Duh…Harry Truman. Which means that, if he/she has elected-Presidential aspirations, Hilary’s VP will either have to hope for a world war, or that she die in office.

[Lance_Turbo]

There’s a betting market for this. (PredictIt)

Here’s the top six in order of market price:

Julian Castro
Tim Kaine
Martin O’Malley
Cory Booker
Elizabeth Warren
Deval Patrick

[DSeid]

@Barkis_is_Willin

I could see myself voting for Hillary over some from the current crop of GOP candidates, but those odds go down if Sherrod Brown is on her ticket. He may be too far left for her.

@BobLibDem

Best choice- Joe Biden

Would like to see Sherrod Brown or Al Franken …

And there we see the dynamic. Brown is a solid progressive choice. On the down side might turn off some of the conservatives who might swing on the plus side might help get some progressives more excited. Agree some with Sanders … higher turnout is a plus to the Democratic side.

Plus again a marginal help in a key swing state and expertise on rural issues which is where the party needs the most help overall, avoiding too much guns and social issues (not running from them though) in favor of a focus on rural job growth (as he has done).

[Qin_Shi_Huangdi]

Brian Schweitzer would be a great choice.

[yellowjacketcoder]

@Qin_Shi_Huangdi

Brian Schweitzer would be a great choice.

I like Schweitzer a lot but I think he’s made the Sherman speech about the vice presidency.

[That_Don_Guy]

@JKellyMap

That’s an interesting point. Has there ever been a sitting VP who was elected president immediately after his party was already in power (presidentially speaking) for 16 years? I really doubt it.

@JKellyMap

Duh…Harry Truman. Which means that, if he/she has elected-Presidential aspirations, Hilary’s VP will either have to hope for a world war, or that she die in office.

Er, Truman wasn’t the “sitting VP” when he was elected in 1948; he had been President for about three years.

IIRC, the only two sitting VPs elected President were Martin Van Buren and George H.W. Bush, and in both cases, the party had been in power for only two terms, although Van Buren’s predecessor’s terms were preceded by the “Era of Good Feelings.” (Had Al Gore been elected in 2000, his party also would have been in power for only two terms before his election.)

[GloryDays]

@Qin_Shi_Huangdi

Brian Schweitzer would be a great choice.

Schweitzer brings down scale whites to the ticket, he could take some Trump supporters off the GOP. He might be a loose cannon however.

[JKellyMap]

@That_Don_Guy

IIRC, the only two sitting VPs elected President were Martin Van Buren and George H.W. Bush, and in both cases, the party had been in power for only two terms, although Van Buren’s predecessor’s terms were preceded by the “Era of Good Feelings.” (Had Al Gore been elected in 2000, his party also would have been in power for only two terms before his election.)

Thanks. Then there’s Nixon, whose situation some would say resembled Gore’s, only with ballots wet with Chicago River water rather than hanging chads

Plus, Nixon gets extra points, since he did eventually become president.

[BrainGlutton]

@yellowjacketcoder

Julian Castro would be a nice choice for both firing up the base, firing up the latino vote, and trying to put the southwest into play, but I think the name and the fact that Texas going blue in the next decade is a pipe dream keeps him off the ticket. Could be interesting.

“Castro” ain’t a scary name no more; Julian on the ticket would win Clinton a lot more votes than he would lose her.

[Futurist110]

@BrainGlutton

“Castro” ain’t a scary name no more; Julian on the ticket would win Clinton a lot more votes than he would lose her.

Isn’t Castro pretty inexperienced for the Presidency, though?

[GloryDays]

@Futurist110

Isn’t Castro pretty inexperienced for the Presidency, though?

That’s what I think to. In this age of national security, defense spending, is Castro ready to be president? If I was her, I would pick former Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine or Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack of Iowa.

[China_Guy]

@Futurist110

Isn’t Castro pretty inexperienced for the Presidency, though?

He’s no Sarah Palin FWIW

[DSeid]

What voters would Castro deliver that she does not already have? What states might he impact?

Playing on that realclearpolitics app, change GOP Hispanic share from 27.6% down to 20% and increase Hispanic turnout from 48% to 60% … and the electoral college result stays the same.

Maybe some down ticket impact in few states, okay.

[iiandyiiii]

@DSeid

What voters would Castro deliver that she does not already have? What states might he impact?

Playing on that realclearpolitics app, change GOP Hispanic share from 27.6% down to 20% and increase Hispanic turnout from 48% to 60% … and the electoral college result stays the same.

Maybe some down ticket impact in few states, okay.

He might improve turnout. In the long run that’s huge… Texas could flip of Hispanic turnout was high enough.

[Bridget_Burke]

@iiandyiiii

He might improve turnout. In the long run that’s huge… Texas could flip of Hispanic turnout was high enough.

Let Ted Cruz explain:

“If Republicans do not do better in the Hispanic community,” he said, “in a few short years Republicans will no longer be the majority party in our state.” He ticked off some statistics: in 2004, George W. Bush won forty-four per cent of the Hispanic vote nationally; in 2008, John McCain won just thirty-one per cent. On Tuesday, Romney fared even worse.

“In not too many years, Texas could switch from being all Republican to all Democrat,” he said. “If that happens, no Republican will ever again win the White House. New York and California are for the foreseeable future unalterably Democrat. If Texas turns bright blue, the Electoral College math is simple. We won’t be talking about Ohio, we won’t be talking about Florida or Virginia, because it won’t matter. If Texas is bright blue, you can’t get to two-seventy electoral votes. The Republican Party would cease to exist. We would become like the Whig Party. Our kids and grandkids would study how this used to be a national political party. ‘They had Conventions, they nominated Presidential candidates. They don’t exist anymore.’

Or, that’s what he was saying in 2012. Cruz was a great debater–I was a crappy one but know how debates work. You study both sides of the question, then a coin toss decides which one you’ll be arguing. “Conviction” has nothing to do with it.

Castro as VP nominee might bring out the Tejano vote. (Cruz knows that a Canadian-Cubano won’t.) But actually getting that vote out isn’t easy.

[Gyrate]

@GloryDays

Schweitzer brings down scale whites to the ticket, he could take some Trump supporters off the GOP. He might be a loose cannon however.

I can’t envision a scenario in which any current Trump supporters would vote for the Democratic candidate no matter who that is.

I think Franken has the chops but I also think he’d do far more good where he is.