[QUOTE=Jurph]
He won Alaska and Texas. They’re the two biggest.
Seriously, though, you have to get into some pretty convoluted ways of measuring things to come up with a system where Hillary is ahead. He has won small states that may or may not be “in play” for the general… but they are definitely “in play” for the primary. Obama’s campaign has outmaneuvered Hillary’s time and time again.
Judges, let’s take a look: “Presumptive nominee” is worth… ah, zero delegates.
Yep. They sure are… big. Next point, please.
Incorrect.
I was under the impression that the only organization awarding meaningful credentials was the DNCC Credentials Committee.
She may, but I’m not rushing to get her to go away. I would certainly prefer for her to think about how the tone of this primary campaign is affecting the Democratic nominee’s chances in the general, but at this point I think asking her to consider anything other than Her Victory is futile.
Again: maybe so. But that doesn’t mean she’ll close the gap with Obama.
No, he didn’t land a knockout blow. But Hillary’s delegate lead in Rhode Island was nullified by Obama’s lead in Texas, and his wins in Vermont and Wyoming nullify her win in Ohio. He actually increased his lead over the course of March. In racing, that’s called “pulling away”. Texas and Ohio were both billed as “must-win” states for her, and she didn’t win them both.
She tied.
I don’t want the voting to stop, but I wouldn’t mind if this were over. Of course, you don’t have to turn the clock back very far at all to find a day when Hillary believed that a lead of a hundred or so delegates would seal her victory. Everyone knew that her early strategy was to build a credible lead – at the time, a hundred votes would have done it – then turn the screws, get a bunch of supers to declare for her, and force the other candidate out “for the good of the party.” Notice the heavy coverage of delegate totals (vice pledged delegate counts) in the early states to see how the narrative was being written.
I will never count a Clinton out until I can look down from a safe distance, plainly see both hands, and get a good look up both sleeves. They do have a talent for coming back. But here’s the score:
- Hillary cannot get to 2023½ with regular votes, even if she wins every last pledged delegate from here until the Convention. If Hillary dropped out today, it’s mathematically possible but not-bloody-likely that Obama could get to the magic number by winning elections.
- If the Superdelegates continue to break about 50/50 (generous!) she needs to get 83% of the remaining pledged delegates in order to show up to the Convention tied with Obama. Sadly for her, the supers are not only breaking in Obama’s favor, but they’re defecting from her camp as well.
- If she can convince the Supers to break for her two-to-one, the she only needs 64% of the remaining delegate pool to show up tied with Obama. Doable, yes – but she’s only done it in five places: Oklahoma, Arkansas, American Samoa, Florida, and Michigan. By contrast, he’s beaten her 2-to-1 in twelve contests (and her name appeared on all twelve ballots).
- If FL and MI magically had their delegates counted again today, she could close the gap to as little as 50 delegates, but she would still need to gain a net of 50 delegates over the remaining contests to show up tied with Obama.
Obama’s strategy at this point is simple: continue to get out the vote, and don’t lose. If you imagine Hillary can show up to Denver with fewer delegates than Obama and win the nomination without becoming a radioactive candidate for the party, you’re dreaming.
Hillary’s strategy, on the other hand, has to focus on beating the game: she needs to get ahead in numbers, she needs to find a way to rewrite the MI and FL rules, she needs to stop hemorrhaging superdelegates, she needs to keep the party leadership from aligning against her and muscling her out (I don’t want to see it either, but if she keeps tearing down Obama it could happen)… she needs to squeeze every advantage she can get from the rules. Like I said, I’m not counting her out, but among other foul-ups, her campaign has failed to name a full slate of delegates for Pennsylvania; that’s like starting a chess match already down a piece. Experienced players may do that when they feel they have a great advantage… but she doesn’t. If she’s going to win she can’t make any more amateur procedural mistakes, or get caught in any more silly off-the-cuff lies, or make panicky personnel changes, or be the second one to make a speech on any issue.
She needs to step up, be the first to the microphone with serious policy proposals, and beat Obama in every single aspect of the contest that remains. I don’t think she’s got it in her.
[/QUOTE]
Wow, so many point by point responses. I guess I’ll go in order:
Obama’s campaign has never outmaneuvered Hillary in convincingly winning (actually, winning at ALL – and I’m talking popular, not delegate count) the large, critical states that are needed in the general election and many of the ones he has won won’t be up for the taking in the general anyway so who cares; it also won’t get him the nomination by achieving the minimum number of delegates.
Yup, they sure are big. You dismiss that, but it’s a critical part of her argument to the supers and it is a valid argument. It can’t simply be wished away. Obama has not proven he can win the big states and there’s a larger percentage of her voters that will go to McCain in the general than the other way around.
Not incorrect, I’m talking popular at the time of the convention, not delegates now or then.
Funny, but I’m obviously speaking of her credentials in terms of her superior experience that will also be part of her argument to supers between then and now.
She’s not expecting to close the gap with Obama on delegates. So what? It’s been known for a while now that it was going to go to the supers. Obama can’t close the gap to 2,025 either.
She won both Ohio and Texas. I’m talking popular, again, not delegates; and that’s because the delegates aren’t going to clinch the nod for him anyway and when Denver arrives and neither has 2,025 then the delegate count will not determine the winner. It will be the supers. There’s an argument that they should/will/would vote for the one with the most delegates, but there’s an equally valid argument that they’ll go with the one with the popular vote which I expect will be HRC by then. If that’s the case, the pledged delegates are moot.
She didn’t tie, she won. Popular.
She doesn’t need to be tied or even close to Obama in pledged delegates. Neither is going to win this on pledged delegates, they’re all but moot already.
Obama’s “strategy” is get people to vote for you and don’t lose? Um. Next point, please…
I don’t imagine Hillary can show up to Denver with fewer delegates than Obama and win the nomination without becoming a radioactive candidate for the party. Hence, I’m not dreaming.
I imagine she will show up to Denver with fewer delegates than Obama and win the nomination and be a radioactive candidate for the party. So be it.
She doesn’t need to rewrite the MI and FL rules, she’s already got the popular in both those states and seeing as how neither of them is going to clinch the delegates anyway before Denver, she’ll use MI and FL’s popular vote lead as part of her rationale. It will work or it won’t, but that’s the strategy.
Being the second one to make a speech on any issue is a bad thing? That’s odd.
She has stepped up and been the first to lay out serious policy proposals time and again including her proposals on postnatal care, capping insurance at between 5 and 10%, etc. Nobody can seriously contend she isn’t more knowledgeable and well-versed at healthcare than Obama is.
She doesn’t need to beat Obama in every single aspect of the contest that remains; I think Obama will win NC and tie in Indiana and it still won’t be enough for him to win on delegates.
Delegates will then be out, won’t be obligated to be pledged any longer, and it will go the superdelegates which are mostly women, have longstanding ties to the Clintons, and the masses of them haven’t announced as of now. If they wanted to shut it down (as seems the media bent as of now) then they’d have done it already.
As for Obama, he needs to stop getting caught in more damaging off-the-cuff phrases like “typical white person”, making panicky changes to his spiritual advisors, and see if he can get his story straight on what he would/should/could/will do with regards to Trinity and make the folks in PA and elsewhere feel comfortable with the endorsements of the Nation of Islam and the New Black Panthers.
Oh yeah, and he needs to find a way to make his efforts to not have MI and FL counted or redone not seem like an effort to run out the clock before the tide turns and she rises (yet again).
And finally, he needs to not have another major scandal or three between now and then and do well at both of the anticipated upcoming debates.
I believe Obama’s camp will be digging through HRC’s tax records soon.
Then again, the idea of a scandal derailing a Clinton is pretty laughable.
He’s done pretty well in having dealt with his first and only major scandal ever in this entire campaign with the Wright situation, but it’s not dead, still percolating, and with his typical white person comment and follow-up questions sure to continue and also resurface at the debates next month, he’s not out of those woods yet.
Really good detailed reply on your part. I’m gonna try to summarize the responses from hereon out though cuz going down point for point is a bit much; especially since these points have already been covered upthread or in another one. Thanks for your thoughts.