I was watching a video on alternative history concerning the Korean War and a few things struck me as potential for debate. I figured I’d start off with my (admittedly limited) narrative on the war, then progress to what the debate is in an alternative timeline and ask if, in hindsight it would have been better or worse to change that timeline.
In the early summer of 1950 and in a surprise invasion, North Korea crosses the border with South Korea (38th parallel) and drives deep into South Korea, causing extensive casualties and capturing Seoul in less than a month. By mid-summer the first US forces enter the war to assist the South Korean military, and by late summer the US and UN is committed to defense of the Pusan Perimeter, a series of defensive works that were a last ditch defense of southern South Korea centered around the port city of Pusan. Having established a fairly stable defensive line, the US and allied forces tries and succeeds with an end around amphibious invasion at Inchon, a city off the north western coast of South Korea. This essentially cuts off the North Korean military units surrounding Pusan and enables the US and allied forces to interdict North Korean logistics, free Seoul, and break out of Pusan attacking the North Korean forces from multiple directions. By early winter the US and allied forces have driven into North Korea and captured Pyongyang, driving north towards the border and basically just mopping up what’s left of the North Korean forces. It seems the war is basically over for North Korea and reunification is only a matter of time. However, alarmed, the Chinese have been secretly moving forces to the border, and as the US/UN forces close in on the border launch an unexpected attack, driving the US and UN forces in disarray back beyond Seoul before they drive back to…the 38th parallel (more or less), where this all started (the Chinese/North Koreans do recapture Seoul, but it’s taken back in early '51). At that point there is basically a stalemate where both sides launch local attacks but essentially don’t do much (the Chinese spring offensive of '51 was particularly costly). By the summer of '51 an armistic was signed.
And we’ve been living with the consequences of this ever since. So, leaving aside the probably glaring holes and just outright incorrect stuff above (sorry, the Korean War was never a huge thing of interest for me so my knowledge of it is pretty sketchy), the alternative history senario would be…what if the US decided, when China attacked, cut off the Chinese army logistically by attacking into Manchuria either via air strikes or sea attacks…whatever it took to basically cut off Chinese logistics? Would it be worth the cost, from the perspective of hindsight, to go all out when we could have done so, and reunified Korea? I think it’s something the US and it’s allies COULD have done (though perhaps it would have been beyond the scope of the UN intervention), but at the time it was felt that Korea wasn’t worth the risk of widening the conflict (i.e. in case Russia had decided to take a more active role).
This would have had a pretty profound change on history, especially wrt China and US relations. I seriously doubt the US could or would have approached China in the '70s as we did to reopen relations…and I doubt China would have been open to it the way they were either. China lost over a million killed in Korea, but cutting off their army in the way I’m thinking would have easily doubled, tripled or even more then casualties, and that would have made a reapproachment that much more difficult. It also would have meant that the China/Korean border would have been even more politically and militarily charged. There is also the factor that the South Korean government of today isn’t anything like the corrupt and morally bankrupt one that was in power during the war…so, a unified Korea might not be what South Korea is today. So…with hindsight, should the US and it’s allies gone all out to ensure there was a unified Korea, or was what happened the best of a bad lot (or, do you think it would have been better for the US/UN to stay out of it and let North Korea unify Korea under their system)?