According to many sites, the world’s population is scheduled to hit 7,000,000,000 sometime this year. Is there any estimate as to the date when this will happen?
It’s only an estimated figure.
It’s not like there’s a meter somewhere ticking off the numbers, and the seven billionth winner gets champagne. The population figure is the net sum of births and deaths. The figures for those are notoriously unreliable in many countries round the world. Many births and deaths are never recorded, and some countries just estimate their population.
So, don’t expect a headline in the news “Seven billion today”. It won’t happen.
You hit the edit button before I could reply.
I thought this was going to be one hell of a post count party.
I thought we already hit it.
Now it’s projected to hit 7 billion in 2012. I’m not sure if they have an exact date yet, as the estimates get regularly updated. But, I’m certain when it happens, it will happen on an exact day and it will be in the news. We might not have an exact day until we enter the month it’s estimated to occur.
I heard that! My first thought was that something had gone haywire on the Front Page
But if you want to watch along: http://www.worldometers.info/
It’s possible to estimate the dates, but as noted by Michael of Lucan they’re only approximate. The Day of 6 Billion, for example, was declared by the UN Population Fund to be October 12, 1999; estimates based on U.S. Census Bureau approximations put it in June 1999 instead. Similarly, the “Day of Seven Billion” (according to this Wiki page) is estimated to either be in August of this year or July of next year, depending on who you ask.
However, I do expect that there will be a headline reading “Seven Billion Today” at some point in the next year or two. At some point, one or the other of the above agencies will put out a press release talking about their estimates. The articles & TV spots written about will undoubtedly not make it clear that this is only an estimate, and most of the public will just it assume that they’ve determined the exact date.
(Yes, I’m a little cynical about science journalism)
Here is the link to the Population Clock, from the US Census. It gives both the US and World population
Here’s some figures from that site
Date -> World Population -> Increase
07/1/2010 6,852,472,823
08/1/2010 6,858,904,297 6,431,474
09/1/2010 6,865,335,772 6,431,475
10/1/2010 6,871,559,780 6,224,008
11/1/2010 6,877,991,255 6,431,475
12/1/2010 6,884,215,263 6,224,008
01/1/2011 6,890,646,738 6,431,475
02/1/2011 6,897,078,213 6,431,475
03/1/2011 6,902,887,287 5,809,074
04/1/2011 6,909,318,762 6,431,475
05/1/2011 6,915,542,770 6,224,008
06/1/2011 6,921,974,245 6,431,475
07/1/2011 6,928,198,253 6,224,008
So I took all these number and threw them in Excel and did an average monthly again
The average monthly gain is 6,310,453
So each month, on average, the world is gaining 6,310,453
If this holds true the world won’t hit the seven billion mark till July 2012
08/1/2011 6,934,508,706
09/1/2011 6,940,819,159
10/1/2011 6,947,129,612
11/1/2011 6,953,440,065
12/1/2011 6,959,750,518
01/1/2012 6,966,060,971
02/1/2012 6,972,371,424
03/1/2012 6,978,681,877
04/1/2012 6,984,992,330
05/1/2012 6,991,302,783
06/1/2012 6,997,613,236
07/1/2012 7,003,923,689
Nitpick: That would put 7 billion sometime in the middle of June, not July. And your population change figures look to be based on an assumption of just a constant increase per day, with the only variation from month to month being due to the length of the month. So you’d be much better off just going with the per-day rate they’re using.
The US Census site confirms what I say, that any figures quoted are merely estimates. The number quoted is imaginary, not reflecting actual population figures.
I suspect that in the next twelve months or so they will arbitrarily decide that the seven billionth person has been reached. A photogenic new-born baby somewhere like Chad will be picked to represent this, not a kid in Chicago or Dublin. However, it will be an arbitrary choice.
Think of a business which decides to give a reward to its millionth customer. They really don’t know who it is, so they arbitrarily pick someone who is somewhere around number one million. By an amazing coincidence, it will be someone reasonably photogenic, and in their target market.
Yeah. They could go with that old joke [spoiler] http://www.ohgizmo.com/2006/04/05/lasik-at-home-do-it-yourself-laser-eye-surgery/
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I know all this. That’s why I used the word “estimate.”
I’m counting them personally. Unfortunately, I need to tell you that there are actually only seven people in this world. The other six have really good disguises.
To whom are you telling this?
Who is number one?
Bob.