Story here. That they took both makes me nervous–the DOMA case is a fairly modest, incremental step, but as I recall the Prop 8 ruling was broad enough that it might make even Justice Kennedy uncomfortable.
I know there are a lot of threads down there about same-sex marriage, but this is a fairly specific topic.
The supremes have decided to review both California’s Prop 8 and a provision of DOMA that is apparently relevant to it.
It was my understanding that if they did take up Prop 8, then the ruling would probably be law for the whole country; whereas if they left it alone, the result would only cover district 9.
As for DOMA,
So, I’m hoping that they confirm the overturning of prop 8, and that they overturn relevant provisions of DOMA. But I am doubtful, it seems almost too good to be true.
I’m also wondering whether the timing of this decision, after the election, has anything to do with it. Facing a probable change of at least 2 justices over the next 4 years and therefore the court probably becoming more liberal, maybe the current Chief wants to decide this now while the majority can be counted as conservative.
Who will be the deciding vote(s)? I imagine there are some justices whose vote can be predicted almost to a certainty. Others might surprise us.
This is going to be fascinating. I wish I didn’t have so much at stake.
Roddy
Threads merged.
Notwithstanding my handle, I’m not a super-devoted court watcher these days. But Emily Bazelon discussed this on the Slate Political Gabfest, which I listened to this morning. Her breakdown:
Ginsburg, Breyer, Kagan and Sotomayor will almost certainly be for striking down both DOMA and Prop 8.
Scalia will, without a doubt, want to let both stand. (Seriously, have you read the way this guy writes when teh ghey comes up?) Thomas will probably go with Scalia.
Alito doesn’t have much of a record on this type of issue, but safe money would put him with the conservative wing.
Roberts is perhaps a wild card, as the Obamacare decision suggests that he may be concerned about the perception of the Court by the public as being out of step. He’ll be worth watching at oral argument.
If Roberts goes with the conservatives, it all comes down to Kennedy, as usual. Kennedy gave us both Romer v. Evans and Lawrence v. Texas. I’d feel comfortable if it were just DOMA, but I’m not positive that Prop 8 isn’t a step too far.
Shit, this is it, the One Ring to decide them all…I mean, the one year. By this time next year, we’ll all either be transported back in time to the 1950’s or in line for our government mandated gay spouses after being forced to divorce from our straight spouses.
Paraphrasing Comic Book Guy: For many of you, this will be much less sex. For me, much much more 
Are they hearing the cases simultaneously, or separately? How common is it for them to consider related cases in the same hearing?
Anybody else keep hearing “STOP! In the naaaame of love…” when they see this thread title?
I think we’ll see DOMA go the way of the DODO in this decision.
As for Prop 8, it’s pretty complicated. OTOH, it’s hard to argue with the idea that The People should be able to amend the constitution of their state, but OTOH, it’s not clear that it should be quite so easily to take away a right that had already been granted. I’d really have to see the arguments on both sides.
Contrary to what YogSosoth declares, the march towards SSM rights is moving forward, and this decision won’t stop it. More states will continue to liberalize the laws (even if some don’t), and at some point DOMA will be voted down the way DADT was. The way to the future isn’t always through the courts.
Very curious as to how this ruling will affect people. I know it could force the federal government to recognize SSM for those who married in a state where it was legal, but what about those of us who married abroad?
And if they do uphold either or both DoMA / Prop. 8 as Consitutional, how strong would that be? Would DoMA be safe for a year, a decade, the foreseeable future?
Do the current laws recognize or fail to recognize foreign marriages of the opposite-sex variety? I would hope that if the SCOTUS were to equalize marriage rights such that any two people can get married, they will also amend the recognition of foreign marriages to reflect that.
Federal law does not recognize foreign SSM or Polygamous marriages for that matter. Keep in mind that many countries allow Polygamy.
But the point is, this decision won’t legalize gay marriage across the board. Therefore, in my very limited understanding, it is not a necessarily the case that it will recognize foreign SSM, but it is also not a foregone conclusion that it won’t. I am hoping someone has better knowledge of the specific case.
They haven’t released the schedule for the hearings yet, as far as I know, but I don’t think they’ll be hearing them simultaneously. They were announced separately in today’s orders.
My WAG is that it would depend on your state of residence. If Bob & Jack got married in Portugal, and now live in New York State the federal government would recognize their marriage, but Susan & Carol, who got married Canada & now live in Idaho who’s have their marriage recognized.
Yeah, but Susan and Carol would have really fresh, delicious potatoes, so there’s that!
So in my case, I don’t have a state of residence, but I vote as a Californian because that was my last residence before leaving the US. So when I file federal taxes, would I decide whether I’m married or single based on California’s laws?
Yep, I couldn’t remember if Diana Ross and the Supremes were even still alive.
I was seriously wondering what Diana Ross had to do with DOMA…
Wow. This is an opportunity for the Court to decide whether they want to issue this generation’s Plessy v. Ferguson or its Brown v. Board of Education, and whether they want to be remembered as this generation’s Taney or Warren. Choose wisely, your Honors.
I’m hopeful that Roberts and Kennedy will side with the liberals, but after the Obamacare debacle it sounds like Kennedy has no good will left toward Roberts so he might just go with Scalia, Thomas and Alito.
I say Roberts is our best chance at overturning Doma and Prop 8… but yeah, that’s not saying much.