With Detroit’s economy ,how will we keep Verlander and Porcello when their contracts are over? Will the team give up and run like a small market team? The future is grim if ownership decides to cut payroll.
Atlanta Braves
Strengths - Starting Pitching
‘Up the Middle’ Strength
Bobby Cox’s Farewell Tour
Needs: Relief Pitching
Right Handed Power
First Base
The Braves, after a late run at the Wild Card, faded and lost in the last week of the regular season. However, they did finish above .500 for the first time since the 2005 season, which was the last of 14 straight divisional wins. There is a lot of work needing to be done heading into the 2010 season.
First: The rotation is SET. In fact, it may overset. The Braves can trot out Javier Vazquez, Tim Hudson, Derek Lowe, Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, Kenshin Kawakami, and even second year man Kris Medlen. Unless Atlanta wants to try a 6-7 man rotation, someone has to go.
Jurrjens and Hanson - Both are in the early 20’s and have Ace potential. Jurrjens is more of a Maddux-type control pitcher, while Hanson has some serious stuff-very much akin to John Smoltz. I doubt there is a more promising duo of young pitchers in MLB anywhere.
Medlen and Kawakami did fairly good work in the pen late last year, but they would both be more valuable (in my opinion) as a starter. D. Lowe had an off year, but still won 15 games, but his ERA was north of 4.50, and he is 36. Hudson looked sharp coming off TJ surgery, and he is about to sign a very club-friendly 3 year extension.
Javier Vazquez had a very quiet season that, if he had ANY run support in the first half, would have had him in the talk for Cy Young. That being said, he has had several poor to mediocre seasons prior to this year. (JV may be the textbook case of the Bobby Cox syndrome - iow, players having a great year b/c Cox is such a player’s manager. Javy has appearently wanted to pitch in Atlanta for the last decade, and finally got his wish.)
Up the Middle - Brian McCann, Martin Prado, Yunel Escobar, and Nate McLouth. All 4 are young and are above-average offensive palyers for their positions. The Braves are set for years here.
Cox Retirement - This will no doubt inspire the team to play hard to give BC one more shot at glory.
ISSUES
Righty Power - The Braves are dominated by left handed power. McCann, Adam LaRoche, McLouth are alllefties, and Chipper Jones’ big power side is his lefty swing. The Braves’ top prospect, Jason Heyward (Baseball Prospectus’ number one prospect is also a lefty.) Obviously, in a perfect world, the Braves would have a right handed power hitter to break up the string of lefties. With LaRoche headed toward free agency, a 1b would fit in well here. Or, if the Braves want to keep Heyward down on the farm dor a bit more seasoning, a right-handed hitting OF could fit in well. Obvious targets like Holliday or Bay might be too expensive for the Braves of the late 2000’s. Look for one of the starters to be dealt this winter. An intriguing idea would be to send Lowe to Detroit in exchange for Magglio Ordonez. The salaries are almost a wash, and it would shore up potential weaknesses on both teams. Jermaine Dye is another target.
Bullpen - A strength last year can turn into a weakness when 2 of the top guys, Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano, hit free agency. Peter Moylan, a side-arming Australian will return, but lefties hit him hard last year. The Braves did sign Scott Proctor to a minor league deal, but one wonders how much he has left in the tank. Talk on Braves Blogs has the fans panting for Billy Wagner on a short term deal. Clearly, the team needs to shore up this area.
First Base - Adam LaRoche continued his career-long tendency of having HUGE second halves. He is however, a free agent, and the Braves have a hot prospect named Freddy Freeman who appears to be one or two seasons away. LaRoche appears to want a three year contract, and would probably give Atlanta a small discount to stay, as he originally came up in the Braves organization before being traded to Pittsburgh for Mike Gonzalez. But do the Braves want to tie up resources for three years when they may only need him for one?
Conclusion:
After dumping Jeff Francoeur on the Mets, the offense came to life, but was not consistently powerful enough to catch the Rockies for the NL Wild Card. The pieces for one of, if not the best rotations 1-5 are in place. Can the Braves deal for the right-handed power they need to balance an overly-left handed power lineup? And can they piece together a 'pen that can withstand Bobby Cox’s admittedly odd usage? If they can, they are certainly capable of returning to the playoffs, and a division win is not out of the question.
There’s a reason “You can never have too much pitching” and “These things tend to work themselves out” are cliches: Because they’re true.
Has the team *not *played as hard as it could? That wouldn’t speak well for Cox, or the players either, but it would explain a few things.
I still don’t quite see why the Sox dealt him for Kotchman.
Stories in Boston have him willing to accept arbitration, which would make him a set-up man but on a true contender. He’s a short-termer no matter what, of course.
Good summary!
gonzomax, betcha the economic outlook holds down FA prices this winter as much as it did last winter. Don’t despair; the Tigers might be able to afford to keep their guys anyway.
Look for the Red Sox to stay pat after re-signing Jason Bay, which I’d bet they do, and add some more veteran fill-ins. Alex Gonzalez should be back, too (who else could be next through the SS turnstile? Marco Scutaro?)
With one huge exception: Adrian Gonzalez. The new SD GM just came from Boston and knows what they have on the farm, so the deal is going to hurt. But the team does need to add a big bat, even with Bay and a healthy Ortiz and Lowell (not good assumptions). SD has no reason to keep him when they can load up on top prospects instead. I think they’ll do it.
Nice summary Wargamer. Thanks for that.
God only knows what’s going to happen in Toronto.
The team has effectively no second string, at least none worth mentioning, so if Marco Scutaro isn’t re-signed then the team has no major league shortstop. Apparently Edwin Encarnacion will be the third baseman in 2010, which is fine with me; he’s inexpensive and you never know, maybe he’ll harness his power.
The only rumour of note right now is Lyle Overbay to Arizona for Chris Snyder. This makes sense from Toronto’s perspective, in that they’ll need a catcher assuming Barajas leaves (or, as Yogi Berra would tell you, you’ll have a lot of pitches go all the way to the backstop) but I’m not sure why Arizona would want Overbay, but I suppose he’s reliable.
The outfield looks like Vernon Wells (gack) in center field/the bank, Travis Snyder in right, and since they seem very determined to have Adam Lind be a first baseman or a DH, who the heck knows in left. I’m assuming they don’t actually want to play Jose Bautista full time out there. If Overbay isn’t moved, Lind may be left field by default, or else they’ll do the usual SkyDome Shuffle, put Lind at DH, and recruit three or four hopelessly over the hill outfielders to each play four to six weeks of really terrible baseball out there. You can probably guess who they’ll be by just looking at the list of eligible free agents and picking out 3-5 guys over the age of 32 who’ve had okay careers but who you don’t want playing for your team.
The pitching will be fine; they have at least 14 legitimate major league pitchers, plus prospects, so it’ll be a matter of sorting them out in spring training. But hoo boy, it’s going to be a dreadful lineup. There’s really only one guy I’m confident will be a plus hitter: Adam Lind. (For all the homers, Aaron Hill wasn’t really that great a hitter in 2009, and he probably won’t hit as many homers.)
RickJay I heard some buzz on a three team trade. The principals being Overbay to Mets, Castillo(2b) to Cubs and Bradley (lf) to Jays.
As far as I’m concerned the day pitchers and catchers first report should be a national holiday so the sooner it comes the better. 
Well, by playing hard for Bobby, I meant they will have an ‘extra’ motivation, above and beyond the normal ones.
On the Braves blog I visit, I have also heard talk (wishful thinking?) about a Lowe for D. Lee and Bradley swap with the Cubs. I don’t know WHY the Cubs would do that trade (although I bet they’d dump Bradley in a femtosecond if they could get anything at all for him).
Another name I’ve heard wished for is Nelson Cruz of the Rangers. But I don’t think the Rangers would take Lowe or Kawakami for him straight up, and Vazquez has a No Trade clause to the AL and NL West divisions (he likes pitching close to Puerto Rico so he can fly there on off days to see his family, or so I hear.)
Oh, I think the Sox dealt LaRoche for Kotchman because he’s not really an OBP type guy, and his defense is average at best. Kotchman isn’t much of an offensive power threat, but he’s definitely got a better glove that LaRoche.
I’m looking forward to seeing what the St. Louis Cardinals do in 2010. One of the best coaching staffs in baseball, including pitching coach Dave Duncan, will all be returning, except that the hitting coach will be replaced by… oh, some guy nobody’s ever heard of. 
Which is a good thing, because the Cards’ biggest weakness in 2009 seemed to be that they couldn’t always hit.
It’s very much an open question whether Matt Holliday will be back, and if he isn’t, that’ll be the biggest hole they have to fill.
There was also talk of a straight up Wells for Bradley trade, though from the Cubs’ perspective that would be insane. It does suggest, however, legitimate Toronto interest in Bradley.
Bradley has a lot of baggage, but he can hit, and you never know. You can have an asshole around if you know how to accept it. He is certainly a better outfielder than any in-house option.
…did someone say San Francisco Giants?
Tigers have to cut payroll. They wasted money on Willis and got nothing in return. His arm seems to have been repaired but he couldn’t hit the earth if he was throwing at it. Polanco will get offers and probably leave. Seizemore ,in the minors was ready, then he broke his ankle. Inge has had 2 knee operations this off season. But with Laird, Granderson, Inge and others, they struck out tons and murdered rallies. They do not need that much help to contend next year.
Good one. I’m wondering if there’s an equally accepting town in the AL for him to play DH. Oakland? Same crowd, strong love of efficient hitters…
Oakland, yes, if you mean the Raiders instead of the A’s. 
If Bonds couldn’t find a job as a DH last year, I don’t see anyone picking him up in 2010. Lots of teams could have used him in 2009 and nobody touched him with a 39.5-foot pole. He’s not going to be any better in 2010 (though it would make him a four-decade player, which would be kinda cool) so why would the same teams that said “no thanks” last year change their minds now?
To be fair, taking on Dontrell got the Tigers Cabrera. I think that at least has worked out well. I notice that despite his high salary the Tigers have no interest in trading him. So think of Dontrell has part of the cash payment to get Cabrera.
Yeah, but then they gave him a 3 year extention for 30 million. They also are giving 18 million to Ordonez, an option that wouldn’t have vested if they stuck with their intended mid-season platoon.
Speakin’ of the Yankees, though, this is a half-old team. How long do you think it can stay together? Do you think they’ll be mostly intact for end of season next year?
That is why they need to left Matsui and Damon go or at most give one of them a one year contract.
Posada is nearly done and the Yanks have the best collection of Catcher Prospects in the minors though not the #1 catcher prospect. Rivera, Jeter & A-Rod are find for a while yet in my opinion. Andy should be on one year contracts.
The team is getting younger and this is good. Stay away from older free agents for now on.
Red Sox sign Marco Scutaro for two year deal to play SS.
What does everyone think of this and his defense?