bad for mccarthy.
there would have to be a vote for adjournment to stop the bleeding. democrats are not going to stop the bleeding. this is going to be really ugly next round.
I didn’t mark the time they started, but it seems like about 1 hour per round of voting. Does that sound about right, or was it a little less? Im trying to figure out how many rounds they’ll go before having to call it a day.
Yep, the second round is going to be very interesting and potentially bloody. If there isn’t a significant shift toward McC then he will be getting into dangerous territory, particularly with this many defections on the first ballot.
I’m going to give it 50/50 between McCarthy and Jeffries.
There’s some chance that the crazy caucus buckles after the umpteenth round of voting. But there’s also a chance that the sane caucus realizes that the crazies really aren’t going to buckle and so switch to “present”.
At this moment in history, the sanes might realize that the universe has perfectly teed up the shot to demonstrate that doubling down on stupid is self-defeating, and that once you get to vote 3, voting “present” is really not going to be all that damaging to your re-election chances.
I really don’t find it unlikely that we get Jeffries.
It could go either way.
Best case for the country, McCarthy strikes a deal with Jeffries for some extra committee seats, banishes the heretics, and wins on the second or third ballot with some Democratic support. Then you have a working “centrist coalition” to get us through the next two years while Democrats hold the Senate and White House. But that seem impossible.
More likely, you get someone like Scalise that is a bit to the right of McCarthy and has been McCarthy’s right-hand man for awhile. Which basically means this was all performative/vindictive by the right-wing base. So nothing really changes except McCarthy looks like a chump (and Trump is once again the political kiss of death).
ETA: By “support” I mean Democrats voting Present to lower the threshold McCarthy needs. Jeffries himself potentially being one of those as gesture.
Agreed. I think some Republicans are going to look at how Mackie went to the hard-liners, hat in hand and getting slapped down for his troubles, and decide it’s not work the next two years working for a complete milquetoast. They’re going to change their votes to “Present” on the third go-round; then they can spend the next two years collecting their checks and blaming the Democrats.
This is what happens when you elect so many people who honestly don’t care about legislating. They have no interest in doing the work of Congress. They don’t care who the Speaker is. They’re having a blast. It’s political theater, and they’re at center stage. McCarthy shares some of the blame, of course.
McCarthy’s been publicly aching for the Speaker’s gavel for eight years now. This is just so sweet to see him sweat, having to furiously whip his ass off with no guarantee that he comes away with anything more than political carpal tunnel.
I think it’s impossible because if McCarthy approaches Jeffries, even more Republicans will defect from McCarthy.
In the era of texting, I feel somewhat confident that McCarthy could figure out how to negotiate without anyone knowing it.
Yeah–this morning, he apparently shouted at his entire caucus, “I EARNED THIS JOB!” I cannot imagine that a single person who otherwise opposed him was persuaded by this outburst of petulant entitlement. What a stupid move.
Sure. But any member can change their vote in the middle of the vote. If Jeffries or some other senior Democrats like Pelosi and Hoyer vote present, they’ll see what’s going on and realize that McCathy negotiated with the Democrats and then change their votes from McCarthy to Biggs.
Yes, exactly. Any side of moderation will explode in his face. So either he plays hard-ball with the “switch your vote now or you are kicked off committees and Congress doesn’t start until we have a Speaker” or he backs Scalise or somebody and slinks off into the sunset.
Based on how relatively spineless he’s seemed to me in the past the latter options seems more likely.
It’s just barely possible that the Democrats decide McCarthy with a neutered right-wing caucus is better than Scalise with a united GOP and a large block vote Present on the second vote just to fuck with the GOP. Not sure if that makes sense politically or not. They would need plenty of cover from Jeffries (and others).
Yeah, this is the rub. So probably better for the Dems to hold firm and the the GOP figure out their shit-show on their own.
Likewise, Jeffries relays the deal to some centrist Democrats, they switch their vote to McCarthy, and the Republicans figure that McCarthy did a deal with the centrists. He says that he did a deal with a Republican centrist, that the Republican centrist pulled in a few Democrats, and that the crazies paid the price for playing politics worse than the centrist Republicans did.
It doesn’t hurt him much because, in the end - so far as anyone knows - everything still happened between Republicans.
If this goes on for several weeks, it’ll actually get into the realm of hurting our nation. But if it’s just for a few days, it stays in the realm of making Republicans look like bickering clownbabies. If I were in charge of the Democrats, I’d consider installing a popcorn machine in the Democratic locker room.
I’d reject the idea, but reluctantly.
Any Democrat that does that is signing the death sentence on their career. If any end up doing so, it’ll be the elderly Democrats retiring from leadership who have nothing to lose, like Pelosi, Clyburn, and Hoyer, not some centrist Democrats from a purple district.
For anyone saying he should make some deal with the Dems to create some centrist coalition, if any Charlie Brown falls for that football again, they should be removed from their seat immediately.
There is no centrist coalition with these Republicans.
Does anyone have the final vote count? Did every single Dem vote for Jeffries?
Word is that a second vote is forthcoming.
Or not. Centrists are voted into office by centrist districts, not hardcore “all who touch the red are forever tainted!” types.
So, to the extent that they take some flack during their campaign, they say, “We negotiated and he agreed to do X, Y, and Z, including reforming health coverage. The alternative was that the Republicans eventually elected Marjorie Taylor-Greene for the role, she sets up a guillotine, and there would have been two years of everyone hiding at home for fear of having their head chopped off, and no X, Y, Z, nor health care reform.” And that all seems reasonable.
They just need to get McCarthy to agree to make the world a better place. If that happens then they’re safe.
Is it simply really really bad for the Republicans? Will this just delay their obstructionism? Because if so, then … Good.