Continuing the discussion from
Hi folks - After consulting with the Mods the consensus is to retire the “McCarthy’s ouster” thread I started ten whole days ago. My, what an eternity in politics. Is it a coincidence that this is exactly one Scaramucci? I think not.
That thread, along with McCarthy himself, is over.
We can pick up here with Is it Scalise or Jordan or ???
As things stand I expect it to be Scalise. I’ll even go out on a limb and predict it will be decided in less than 5 ballots.
I’ll take the over on that. Scalise is not even close to the number of votes needed an the FCers (pronounced Fckers) will try to bleed him for every concession like they did with McCarthy.
The last bit about Santos in the old thread amounted to:
I, the Great Santos, demand a veto on the Speaker.
While claiming to want to be part of a team with leaders and followers, he actually wants to lead from the cheapest of the cheap seats. My, how … Republican … of him.
You vote your right wing in
You vote your right wing out
You vote your right wing in
And you shake it all about
You vote for Kev McCarthy
Pretty soon you vote him out
That’s what it’s all about
You may well be correct but Scalise is nowhere near as hated by the Gaetz Gang as McCarthy was.
[snerk] Thanks for the earworm.
It’s not about hate. It’s about power.
I’m wondering if they even get to the point of bringing a vote any time soon.
They can count and be pretty sure that a vote won’t pass passed on who has said what. They don’t want the very public display of dysfunction, especially in perceived time of crisis, again. They may keep things off air until they believe they have the votes. And I think many of all sides are feeling like they’re getting bullied and don’t want to take it. Very school yard stuff. Hurt feelings. Grudges.
I don’t know how long it CAN last but won’t be shocked if it takes well into next week or even beyond.
If Scalise does become Speaker, the only question left will be how long he will last if he dares to work with the Dems in order to get something done.
We’ll find out in … (looks up days until government shuts down).
On a related line, what’s the over/under for a shutdown just in time for Thanksgiving? I’m assuming even if the Speakership gets resolved before the continuing resolution runs out, any leader the GOP can agree on (especially if it’s Jordan) will be even less willing than McCarthy was to make any deal with the Democrats that could pass the Senate.
My WAG – Patrick McHenry gets voted in as official Speaker. Scalise has at least a dozen Republicans who won’t vote for him, and he won’t progressively cut his balls off like McCarthy did to secure their votes (especially after seeing what good it did McCarthy). There’s never going to be 217 votes for Jim Jordan. The two sides will battle each other to exhaustion, then decide they might as well give the gavel to the guy who’s already holding it.
Also what more does he really have to give? Seems to me like McCarthy already gave away most of the power he is able to give away as speaker.
My prediction might be a bit Pollyanna-ish, but with all the turmoil in Isreal I think the Dems could possibly be convinced, if asked nicely and publicly and offered at least a token concession, to help Scalise over the line. I think they could explain it to their constituents as working for the greater good to get the House moving again.
Not that I think for a single moment (even when I’m deep in my cups) that the Republican would be so mature and forward-thinking as to ask publicly and nicely for Democratic support while offering a token concession. THEIR constituents would never accept any explanation or excuse for working with the other side, ever, for any reason.
The Pubs may think offering to keep the government open is a concession.
I’d guess that Scalise is screwed. Jordan wants it, Trump wants Jordan, and enough people will demure to go against Trump’s wishes to the point that without Democrats abstaining and/or providing token support, that he’s doomed.
And let’s be honest, I don’t think he has the votes to change the rules even if he squeaked in - so he’d piss off some FC / Not bail out Santos / etc and be right in McCarthy’s situation.
The Democrats are going to probably (?) let the Republican’s lynch themselves, and (hopefully) sometime REAL soon start making pointed speeches everywhere that the Republicans haven’t been able to select their OWN leader even with a majority after a WEEK (or two, three, maybe more!).
A couple of weeks of no damn movement towards functioning government may persuade Republican donors to … convince the “stays bought” Republican crowd (moderates have all been forced or retired out) to make a deal with the Democrats for some sort of compromise. Sure, most of the Republicans are terrified of being primaried out, but they’re also terrified of not having money / sinecures upon leaving, and it wouldn’t take too many considering that Jeffries is holding his team together so well.
I’m not sure who you intend “they” to refer to, but IMO the Rs consist of two sorta-teams.
One team wants the external appearance of unity and would do as you seem to suggest. They’re hard rightists ideologically, but they understand normal politics as a process.
The other “team” isn’t really a team; it’s 5 or 15 or maybe even 25 privateers who’re only interested in their personal power, self-aggrandizement, and media profile. And who each individually are happy to have (and cause) plenty of public dysfunction as long as they can claim they they personally are the ones in charge calling the tune. Even if said “tune” is shear nihilistic destruction and discord.
When each of the nutters is shouting “my way or the highway” while each is pointing in a different direction … well … the clown car of state ain’t going nowhere.
I read elsewhere that the job of Speaker is the new political version of Spinal Tap drummer. 
Hell, they wouldn’t even need to “explain” that, I’m pretty sure it would be blindingly obvious to most Democratic voters that they decided, in a time of multiple crises, to pull the Republicans’ nuts out of the fire, again.