What is the Import of Mike Johnson's Win as Speaker of the House?

Politics & Elections
1

Not wishing to hijack this thread:

But I have some thoughts.

I hope I’m wrong, but I fear from this outcome that the takeaway is that Republicans will devote all their efforts to steal the next election in 2024 in the same way they attempted to steal it in 2020.

Johnson was a key architect in the 2020 effort (gift link):

I believe Republicans will spend the next year putting as many fixes in place as they can to do “legally” this time what Trump was unable to accomplish in 2020.

Between Johnson’s experience to rig the election; Trump telling his supporters to not worry about voting because they will have enough votes and to go out and harass watch poll workers instead; pending rulings by SCOTUS re racial gerrymandering in South Carolina; Elon Musk’s efforts to undermine Ukraine as well as allow unchecked propaganda to run rampant on his X/Twitter social media company, well… we’re in for a rough ride, and I’m not sure there isn’t a cliff we’re going over at the end of it.

2

Who is a possible actual Congressperson for Speaker that is not part of the nutty extreme that wants to overturn the free election process?

3

Well, Emmer was. There was another in the running whose name escapes me at the moment, but he dropped out. I’ll post the name when I figure it out. His entry into the fray was fleeting.

4

I’m not worried about the election being stolen because VP Harris won’t allow it, because of the Electoral College Reform Act of 2022, and also because of thinking Trump will gain another term legitimately.

McCarthy was successfully replaced with a more extreme Republican due to willingness to compromise.

I’m more worried about Johnson being against aid to Ukraine, and prospects for a long shutdown.

5

I think a compromise needs to be reached between a fairly moderate Repub and the Democrats. Get behind this mythical creature and give him enough votes to beat the crazy caucus.

6

Dems offered to do that repeatedly. No takers.

7

That figures. So impasse.

8

Yes.

After the supposed moderate Republicans all voted for this extremist, I can’t see them turning around and signing a discharge petition he opposes. At least - not this year. Hope I’m wrong.

9

he is giving quite the religious speech.

10

Aargh!

11

Reposting my thoughts from the other thread:

Overall, the Dems acted appropriately after the Republican House coalition collapsed. They offered a very mild power-sharing arrangement, far less than most parties would have demanded. Then they stayed firm and united.

The Republicans considered Dem support to be a poison pill during GOP primary season and never pursued it.

The GOP scrolled down its alternatives. In the beginning the RINO Chaos Caucus told the GOP: “You obey rules. We don’t. Sucks to be you. Jordan 2023.” That went over ok with the vast majority of Republicans, but unfortunately for Jordan’s supporters (about 40% of the House GOP), a little over 20 were averse to abuse and domination. Most Republicans were fine with that though. Various nominees came and went before they landed on a far-right guy who wants to ban abortion nationwide - but seemed willing to cut deals. This could create some heat for swing district Repubs in 2024 (or not) but it also might keep the government open for at least 90 days.

If skeletons emerged from Johnson’s closet at the last minute, it would have been Elise Stefanik’s turn. After that, they might have seriously considered people who were not House members, but honestly it’s hard to think a good candidate.

The scenario where 10 Republicans jump ship and join the Dems would have been unprecedented: something like that would only happen if the GOP was collapsing under its own weight. We’re not there yet.

If Johnson is a professional (which I suspect given his resume) his personal beliefs will recede in importance. Whether he’s able to bridle the Crazy 8, giving them opportunities for TV exposure without real power, remains to be seen. That’s his main challenge.

I suspect that the Crazy 8 won’t cause too much additional trouble this year. They’ve already sent a letter to their colleagues requesting punishment. House rebels say, “Punish us.” – Kevin Drum

Letter: https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000018b-4df7-df06-a9cb-ddff2ffc0000

The other wild card is Gaetz’s adventures with the House Ethics Committee. Dumping the guy would probably be smart. Gifted October NYT article for background: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/03/us/politics/gaetz-ethics-committee-house.html?unlocked_article_code=1.5Uw.Zm6S.FvbEgakfh3Ud&smid=url-share

As for overturning elections, on the plus side it will be somewhat more difficult than it was in 2020, due to reforms to the Electoral Count Act. Legislation matters. Electoral Count Reform and Presidential Transition Improvement Act of 2022 - Wikipedia

Lots of moving parts.

12

Do you mean that they’ll use powers in the house to fix the certification process? That to me seems unlikely especially when they would be trying to install a president rather than shield an incumbent from being ousted. I’d also be curious what specific powers you’re thinking of if that is the case.

If your point is that in general the most antidemocratic Republicans keep getting rewarded and they’ll continue to normalize their practices and bring in more support and legitimacy each successive time, I agree. Although a lot depends on whether Trump is convicted for his election conspiracies or not.

13

Unfortunately you might be right, and that may mean Ukraine aid is stalled or massively cut.

Johnson has now seen the “moderates” cave to him on the speaker vote and will likely dare them to oppose his budget priorities.

14

I think we’re likely looking at a very short window (possibly through the report in the prior thread of one CR through January) during which the FC, who ended up eating a lot of intra-party hate, will be less obstructionist. Not a lot, but enough to let tempers cool and to let people forget that this was largely their shit show.

Then, if their crazy (and almost certainly impossible) demands aren’t met, and/or if Johnson doesn’t move heaven and Earth to shield Trump, then it’ll all start up again. And it seems likely that Johnson, by the very nature of the currently fractured Republican party, will have made new enemies. And we’ll likely be back at the prior thread again.

I am not a professional psychic, all predictions are followed at your own discretion and risk, all rights reserved.

15

Yeah. Not a good day to be an atheist.

To the greatest extent possible, yes, and we should be highly on guard for it. I’m not sure at this time what specific powers could be utilized. Maybe none or maybe few. But if it’s exploitable, they’ll exploit it.

I agree with this, too. It’s just such a scary time, and this Johnson character scares the crap out of me. He believes himself to be anointed.

16

Dear Tim (Scott), Nikki (Haley), and Vivek (Ramaswamy):

Don’t read too much into this. You’re still our beloved candidates for '24!!

Regards,
Ronna Romney McDaniel, Chair
Republican Party

17

In regard to the budget, the House is almost certain to pass a continuing resolution to fund the government through early next year. The FC will let Johnson do this because he’s their guy and he has the excuse that the House pissed around for three weeks making it impossible to get the budget done by the mid-November deadline.

Longer term, he’ll try to shepherd the remaining appropriations bills through the House. They’ll pass on partisan lines and be filled with all kinds of kookiness – slashing funding, conservative policy riders, etc. The Senate will pass their own version of each bill that does not include these provisions, and Johnson will have to negotiate with Chuck Schumer and Biden over what kind of agreement can be reached.

This is where he will be tested. How much leeway will the FC give him to compromise? They had a special kind of hatred for Kevin McCarthy, will they be more willing to accept a deal that accomplishes some (but not all) of their goals if it comes from Johnson? And if not, is Johnson willing to push it to a vote if the majority of House Republicans support it (i.e. Hastert rule), but it will still take Democratic votes to pass?

18

Nah, I think the test will come almost immediately with Ukraine funding.

The freedom caucus has already won a victory with a “clean” continuing resolution that doesn’t include Ukraine funding at all. Then they picked their own speaker and further solidified the ability to block Ukraine aid.

A majority of both houses supports Ukraine aid, but in the house they have yet to show that they will draw a red line on the matter. This issue is probably important enough to Democrats in the senate or Joe Biden that they are willing to risk a shutdown over it. We’re probably to that or a similar game of chicken.

19

No major law will pass other than budgets.
But they will be all kinds of anti-democratic bills up to the floor. Even abortion bans.

20

There is zero likelihood that Senate Democrats or the Administration will shut down the government over aid to Ukraine. More likely the Senate passes a clean CR, and separately a package that combines aid for Israel and Ukraine. Maybe some border enforcement to sweeten the deal.