Yup. When Dems do not vote to impeach or convict (if it gets to that) MAGA will proclaim it is the same thing as Trump. He wasn’t guilty…just politics.
Indeed, I think they are desperate to “prove” that Trump was innocent and it was just politics.
There just isn’t that much that’s that important that they’re going to go to the wire with this one. As far as I can tell the source of the hangup here is that the freedom caucus is angry that McCarthy’s loyalty to Trump slightly wavered and they want the procedural stuff so they have more ammunition in some future fight with the GOP leadership. Even for them this just isn’t really worth fighting over.
Also the hostages don’t get killed in intra-party disputes. No one on the GOP side is interested in having even a partial democratic takeover of their majority.
I generally agree with you – the Freedom Caucus is beating their chests right now (as is their wont) but it’s not like they have a viable alternative to McCarthy and they don’t really have an interest in delaying the Speaker vote. They’ll wring some concessions out of McCarthy then get on board.
Still, there are levels of madness within the Freedom Caucus. The majority are at least somewhat pragmatic. But if the Republican margin continues to shrink down to 2 or 3 seats, they could be held hostage by the few who truly want to watch the world burn.
@flurb @DeadTreasSecretaries thanks! I thought a plurality would suffice. Oh well.
Washington. And Newhouse did get re-elected.
Okay another try.
https://www.axios.com/2022/11/11/mccarthy-speaker-republicans-moderates
Sanity and pragmatism are relative of course but a narrow majority requires only a couple, not even a dozen.
I would just love, love, love if the democrats teamed up with one of those coalitions, offering the democratic vote to add to their conference in electing their preferred leader in exchange for the majority leader not being a total dick whose only priority is to stick it to the Dems. Maybe a promise to not put the super crazies in committee leadership positions. Do it secretly. That would piss off the crazies, McCarthy, and make actually governing so much easier.
Sounds great but I would not trust the new speaker to not be a dick once they have the position.
Given the absolute shit show that is likely to be the House Republican Caucus next session regardless of who manages to wrest the gavel, there are a few things that Democrats absolutely must do during the upcoming lame duck to limit the damage they can do:
- Suspend the debt limit through the end of the next Congress.
- Pass a continuing resolution to fund the federal government though the end of the fiscal year.
- Lock in as much support as Ukraine is likely to need for at least the next year.
- Pass the Electoral Count Reform and Presidential Transition Improvement Act of 2022, which would update the Electoral Count Act to eliminate many of the ambiguities and weaknesses that Trump sought to exploit in his attempted coup.
Republicans could attempt to filibuster some or all of these, but I think they might not. Senate Republicans are in excellent shape to add to their numbers in 2024, with about a dozen Democratic Senate seats in red or purple states in play. Really, only a debacle could keep them from taking the majority in 2024. And when the House crashes the economy because they can’t get their shit together to pass a debt limit increase, voters aren’t going to differentiate between House and Senate Republicans. Taking no-win scenarios like a debt limit crisis or government shutdown off the board is in their interest.
Thanks for this. I will write to my retiring congressperson (Ron Kind), who is himself a lame duck, as his seat was won by a heinous Republican (Derreck Van Orden).
How can the Dems not even try this, once the dust settles and the GOP ends up with (I hope not) the majority? If it’s narrow enough, 218-217 or 219-216, they don’t need to reach to an entire coalition, just 1 or 3 GOP moderates, to whom they can offer a wide variety of incentives. I even heard rumored that maybe they’ll agree to compromise on Adam Kinzinger or Lynn Cheney which would be a real kick in the head. Love to see it.
I don’t fool myself that any Republican would suddenly become a friendly ally to the Democrats and would champion their causes, but it would be nice just to get back to disagreeing about this and that, jockeying to get favored legislation passed or blocking things you don’t like, and just being the loyal opposition with different policy priorities. What we’ve seen the last decade or so is the Republicans reflexively blocking anything the democrats put forward, even things that are bipartisan that they wouldn’t mind supporting if Republicans were in charge, just to deny Democrats “the win”. Ex: Covid relief. Support for military harmed by burn pits. Infrastructure. The debt ceiling. Etc.
It is a stretch to imagine a Republican allying with Dems on anything, but this possibility seems like a win-win. One or three moderate GOPers would prefer a Speaker of their ilk. Let’s say it’s one, 218-217, and the Dems can’t hope for a majority. You’re the most moderate GOPer in the House, and the Dems offer you the Speakership, all 217 of their votes, plus your own. In effect, you form a coalition government. Dems win, and you get to be Speaker. Why wouldn’t you take this? You’ll never get this chance again. Why wouldn’t the Dems try it? It’s the best speaker possible under the circumstances.
This is a weird hopeless fantasy, like the ones where the Republicans saw the light after 1/6 and voted to convict Trump. Republicans in the majority aren’t going to build a coalition with Democrats under any circumstances. Democrats who want to avoid being primaried and to preserve a chance for their jobs aren’t going to work with Republicans on the very first vote to elect a Republican speaker. Whichever Democrats did defect would be tagged with having allowed every odious Republican action as a “friend and supporter” of the speaker. Nope. Not going to happen.
But the progressive Democrats would die rather than vote for a GOP speaker. There is no way that even Pelosi could deliver a unified Democratic caucus to vote for GOP leader. So the best they could do is allow a few Dems to defect in exchange for, let’s say, great committee assignments. The boot-licking self-serving deals that would come out would look awful in the next election cycle. It would be like working with the Vichy government in WWII. And even that would still mean getting a speaker that the overwhelming majority of Republicans would support.
Even if the only other option is to elect a GOP speaker committed to obstruction and weekly impeachment hearings? I understand that has its political advantages, but so would telling the country that the Dems found a way without a majority in the House, to have a moderate and functional Congress. I think Pelosi could twist a few arms to get the Dems in line with this.
So let’s say you want to tempt a couple of moderate Pubs to vote for a moderate Pub as Speaker. Who will it be because it sure as hell wouldn’t be Pelosi. And then how do you convince the rank-and-file Dems to not vote for Pelosi?
Kinzinger and Cheney aren’t in the next congress.
No need for the speaker to be a congressperson. You could be the next speaker.
Does the relevant Act provide for paying her/his salary as Speaker as opposed to as member-who-happens-to-be-Speaker? ‘cause then hell, why not, I’m throwing my hat in the ring.
Weekly grandstanding impeachment hearings would make Republicans look weak, insult the intelligence of voters, win them no popularity contests, and reinforce to at least some Americans who are on the fence that Republicans are incapable of administering the government. If that’s the worst that Republicans in the house manage to do during the second half of the Biden term, I think the progressive Democrats would cheer.