I know it’s not the optimal strategy, but how bad of a blackjack strategy would it be to never take a hit on a 12 or higher (unless it’s ‘soft’), regardless of the dealer’s card being shown? Basically, how much worse is it than playing “perfect Blackjack”?
You might need to specify a bit more here. Do you split 6s and 7s regardless of dealer’s card, since you’re not going to hit when basic strategy says you should? Or do you stand on those?
Good question, as I knew my question seemed too simple. The basic premise is for someone who has never played, and doesn’t know the odds or the ability to figure them out. So I think the “split” strategy in this case would be to split if your pair card is higher than or equal to the dealer’s show card. Thus, you split the 6’s or 7’s only if the dealer’s card is lower 7 (I think).
Thinking about it more, there are two questions here:
- What is the optimal blackjack strategy that can’t bust
- What is the house edge against that strategy
The first question might be a simple modification of basic strategy or it might not. There are also unfortunately a bunch of variants of blackjack, so the full answer to this is probably going to be a multi-input calculation.
I got trained in black jack by a bunch of quantitative invesment banker traders (before computer algorithms took over. Just for fun they read a bunch of blackjack books and memorized the statistical tables.
Rule of thumb, assume the dealer’s hidden card is a 10. That drives whether you hold or hit. Of course the probabilities change depending on what the dealer face card is and what you have.
While I don’t actually play blackjack much any more (I like craps and roulette more for different reasons), my Stats professor gave us cards that showed the optimal strategy for every card situation back in 1990 or so. I think casinos would actually give these out for a while, and dealers in Vegas and AC will help you if you ask.
The reason I actually asked the question is that I recently played at a Caribbean resort and was helping a young lady next to me (but with no luck). But I had long forgotten the optimal decisions, and since some of them are counterintuitive, I wasn’t confident that I was actually giving her the right advice. So I wondered if a “no bust” strategy would a work for a newbie. Ultimately, the odds are against you either way, but how much worse is my imperfect strategy?
Wizard of Odd (Michael Shackleford) is a respected expert on the maths of various casino games.
Here’s what he has to say:
Sorry, @China_Guy. Assuming a ten in the hole is the worst strategy.
Obviously it’s a lot more nuanced than that as you pointed out. The probabilities change dramatically depending if you have a 12 and dealer is showing a 6. Just a rookie rule of thumb to assume the hidden 10. YMMV.
Another rookie tip is ALWAYS split aces and eights. You can only better your odds by doing so.
Memorize the probability tables, double down odds, and vary your bets depending on the odds is a good way to play if you can pull it off.
Assuming those quoted numbers are correct, the never bust strategy has less of a house advantage (3.91%) than any roulette bet, which has a uniform house edge on double zero tables of 5.26% according to google.
Comparing to craps, that ~4% edge is roughly equivalent to Place bets, which are perfectly acceptable (but far from optimal) bets to play. They aren’t considered sucker bets like playing the Field or any of the other prop bets. (Resolved immediately on the next roll; house edge is mostly double digits on those, up to ~17%.)
So in general, the never bust strategy seems like a relatively benign noob strategy, better than playing roulette and roughly on par with Place bets in craps.
To expand on that, splitting aces is good because an ace plus a random other card has pretty good odds of being 21, and splitting eights is good because a hard 16 sucks for both hitting and standing.
Playing the ‘intuitive’ way (doing what most of the other players or dealers advise) gives a house edge of around 2 percent; it’s not all that bad to just follow the herd. That is taken from a study tracking several hundred thousand hands in Las Vegas. Note that most dealers play typical tourist strategy – very few are actually ‘good’ players.
Most of the mistakes (departures from correct basic strategy) are from incorrect doubles, splits, and soft totals, with a few from incorrectly not hitting bust hands like 12 or 13.
You should split aces and 8’s even when the dealer’s face card is a 9, 10 or Ace?
It’s terrible. There’s no other way to put it. You are going to lose an immense number of hands you should have won, and not win nearly enough going the other way to make up for it.
If you stand on 12 against a dealer 10, you are 15% likelier to lose the hand than if you hit. That is a BIG swing.
Even in less extreme scenarios you’re handing away money; if you stand on 15 against a 10 you give up 3.5% edge. That might not look like much but remember that if you play ideal strategy the house’s overall edge is just one percent or so (depends a little on house rules) so that’s a bit giveaway.
Yes. It gives you a very, very significant boost. You are still at a disadvantage, but splitting eights against a ten reduces the house edge by five or six percent, and splitting aces makes you a significant favorite.
Unless you are a skilled card counter, yes.
Thanks. I actually just meant that question for the 8’s, as I always have split Aces. But to me, doubling your amount at risk with 8’s versus a 9, 10 or Ace seems like throwing good money on top of bad.
Well, and even if you have an accurate count you’re still going to usually split eights and almost always split aces.
Players don’t split enough, actually. Deuces and threes should be split against weak dealer upcards but most people don’t do that.
16 is the worst hand and you expect to lose money when you get it. If you split 8/8 you still expect to lose money. If you don’t split them you expect to lose even more. The dealer doesn’t always make a good hand even with 9 or 10 showing.
Short-run you can never lose more than your initial bet if you don’t split. Long-run you lose less by splitting but sometimes lose more. In the long-run it it better to lose less.
How much does the house rule (literally, it’s a rule for playing with your buddies) of “Dealers Must Hit on 20” change the game?
I hope it’s for real money because the players will win in the long run.
I have never, ever been to a casino with a “dealer must hit on 20” rule. Please tell me where this is, because I want to play blackjack there.