I agree. Republican interference in the election is Trump’s only realistic hope for winning.
Keep counting those chickens before they have hatched! Worked for Hillary, almost. And even with all her flaws, she was a much better candidate than Joe Biden.
Joe is just a place holder for getting the Democratic party machine back in office. He has nothing else to offer. Maybe that is enough. Maybe.
Progressives don’t love Joe Biden, but they’re learning to love his agenda [Vox.com]
Biden is not progressives’ champion: He does not push the envelope in the ways they want, and he has not endorsed their most ambitious ideas. But public opinion has been shifting leftward, and Biden’s thinking has shifted with it, creating a platform that progressives are genuinely excited about. It’s “the most progressive platform of any Democratic nominee in the modern history of the party,” Waleed Shahid, communications director for Justice Democrats, a group famous (or infamous) for backing left-wing challengers to incumbent congressional Democrats, tells me.
I disagree. The evidence is pointing towards a strong Biden win. If the election were held today - based on this week’s poll numbers - Biden would beat Trump 372 to 166. And the movement in the poll numbers is towards Biden.
I agree that the media used to go easy on Trump. I think this was a misguided attempt to be even handed. Trump was objectively telling more lies but the media didn’t want to file more stories of Trump telling lies so they threw out some of the stories.
But I feel this is no longer the case. Here’s an example from a story I happened to read earlier today:
“Nobody likes me,” the president said in a rare moment of self-reflection. “It can only be my personality, that’s all.” The lament came on the same day that the nation surpassed the grim benchmark of 150,000 deaths as a result of the worsening pandemic.
“Remember, he’s working for this administration,” Trump said of Fauci, who is not a political appointee who serves at the pleasure of the president. “He’s working with us. We could’ve gotten other people. We could’ve gotten somebody else. It didn’t have to be Dr. Fauci.”
They’re still reporting what Trump is saying. But they directly state how what he is saying does not match reality.
There is still a fairly good chance Biden does not win by 100 EC votes. Winning by 200 is pretty close to a pipe dream. Even if Biden does get Florida, Arizona, North Carolina & somehow takes back Ohio, he won’t quite get to 200.
Really one of the silliest political polls I have seen.
But ya know, the election is NOT being held today.
We still have a campaign ahead, and Biden is going to destroy himself.
Maybe I should start a new thread called “let’s predict how Biden will lose”. But this thread has already listed most of the reasons.
Once Biden comes out of his basement, he won’t just make a few “gaffes”–he’ll make dozens of terrible, terrible, cringe-inducing sound bites that will go viral. Example: I can imagine him referring to people of color as “the colored people”.
And worse than a just making a few “gaffes”, he will show his senility too often.
If he makes several hundred public appearances, and in two of them he has a “senior moment”, he will lose a LOT of credibility.
Example: I can imagine him facing an interviewer, starting to answer the question, but then rambling off topic, and then saying “sorry…what was the question again?”.
Yes, Trump may do the same thing–making not just gaffes, but full-blown obscenities, and not just “senior moments” but full-blown loss of faculties. But Trump is immune to criticism. Biden is not.
Democrats need to stop their overconfident bluster, and start worrying.
I think his chances in a free and fair election are well over 50% but am still not as optimistic as the OP, as the election is a long ways off.
I think his chances of being President on Inauguration Day are only slightly more than 50% once you take everything into consideration.
For every Biden gaffe, trump will make a dozen- and worse. And Biden has been making his gaffes for decades- didnt stop him for getting into the senate or Veep.
And if anyone is senile and dementia - its trump, not Biden.
Which is why I pointed out that the numbers are moving in Biden’s direction.
All you’re saying is that people who want to vote for Trump will vote for Trump. And obviously that’s true. But I’m saying it won’t decide the outcome of the election.
Trump voters will vote for Trump. Biden voters will vote for Biden. But neither group is big enough to decide the election. The election will be decided by swing voters.
The people you described aren’t swing voters; they’re Trump voters. The fact that they’re looking for a reason to vote against Biden isn’t a negative for Biden; he was never counting on their votes. The fact that a hundred days before the election, Trump voters feel they need to look for a reason to vote against Biden is a serious negative for Trump; his base should not be feeling any reluctance or doubts .
Now step away from Trump’s shaky base into the swing voters. These are the people who aren’t inclined towards Biden or Trump; they’re going to compare the two candidates and choose between them. Do you honestly believe that any swing voter is going to compare the amount of dumb things Biden says and the amount of dumb things Trump says and pick Trump?
If Biden performs at his events as he did in this one yesterday he’ll be fine.
30 minute speech on his economic plans. 30 minute press conference. No gaffes or sign of a stutter here.
Whew!
I think this thread is especially funny, since I’m pretty sure the OP said he wasn’t voting for Biden.
The OP is amusing in the light of protest in a recent Dope thread that nobody here was guaranteeing a Biden victory.
It’s somewhat disturbing that with all Trump’s baggage (steamer trunks full of crazy, stretching to the horizon), he was only down 8 percentage points to Biden in a recent nationwide poll.
I project that Biden will at least match GWB’s 2000 electoral college margin over Al Gore, but I tend to be the John Banner of political prognostication.*
*“I know…nothing!”
The OP has not historically demonstrated a particularly pro-Democratic or pro-Biden viewpoint in the past. One might wish to take his “guarantee” of a Biden landslide in that context.
Personally I think if Biden wins it will be with a margin of less than 100 EVs, and that’s assuming we have a free and fair election which is in no way guaranteed either.
“I see plenty of possibilities - an early vaccine that works, a terrorist attack, a bombshell surprise against Biden,…”
No vaccine will be available until well after the inauguration. The only thing that will stop Biden from sweeping the board is … Biden.I think he will win anyway, but not dramatically, whereas a more charismatic candidate could walk all over Trump. But, it ain’t over till it’s over, so just possibly something weird will happen and Trump squeezes in to a very narrow victory. Of course, I hope not.
But will ignore the zillions of Trump gaffes. Gotcha.
I’m not saying that’s how it should be, I’m saying that’s how it is. Right-wingers constantly accuse legitimate news sources of being biased, so they go out of their way to coddle right-wingers and beat up on Democrats.
Gaffes hurt Biden more for the same reason that a stumble by Geralf Ford mattered more than one by Carter. Ford had been mocked for being clumsy, and therefore anything that fit the narrative was news - despite the fact that Ford was an actual athlete and Carter wasn’t.
The narrative on Biden is that he’s going senile. Therefore, anything he does that advances that narrative will be news in a way that the same mistake by Trump wouldn’t be. Unfair, but that’s the way the news works.