By this point we can pretty much rule out the possibility of Biden winning by less than 100 electoral votes. He is stacking up a big margin overall, even in historically purple or reddish states.
Beating Trump by over 100 electoral votes = not too particular. This would be in line with Obama beating McCain and Romney, although both McCain and Romney were seasoned, sensible opponents. (Actually, in the case of McCain, he lost by a margin of nearly two hundred EVs.)
Beating Trump by over 200 electoral votes = Clinton beating Bush Sr. and Dole. Pretty emphatic. A tone-setting election.
Beating Trump by over 300 electoral votes = now we’re getting historic. We’ve never seen anything like this since the 1980s, and that was a society which was much less bitterly red-blue polarized than America.
Beating Trump by over 400 electoral votes = almost impossible, but this would go down in history. Two entire generations of Americans haven’t seen a result like this go down, not since Reagan won 49 states. This would also imply massive coattails, perhaps sweeping Democrats to such a large majority in the Senate that they wouldn’t even need to abolish the filibuster. Democrats might get their biggest House majority since Vietnam.
Beating Trump by over 500 electoral votes = essentially impossible, so no poll option for this.
An incumbent president with the worst economy since the Great Depression, a botched Covid pandemic response, an approval rating that has never risen above 50 percent and whose voter base has seen millions die out since the last election while his opponent has gained a few million, whose 13,000 Tweets have aggravated a nation for four years and also was the only the third president to get impeached?
…I don’t see how that could possibly translate to an incumbent victory or incumbent loss of a less-than-100-EVs margin.
Biden is one gaffe away from losing this election. The guy is a gaffe machine, and the media will pummel him if he makes any mistakes. The last election showed that small missteps on the Democratic side will be amplified, in order to prove the they are balanced, while the torrent of corruption, racism, and toadying to Russia (bounties on US troops? Whatevs.) will be glossed over.
There are tons of Republican voters just itching for an excuse not to vote for Biden. If he gives them that excuse (maybe he says Woman Person Man Camera TV instead of Person Woman Man Camera TV), they happily pull the lever for Trump.
He still hasn’t picked his VP – once he does, it will be “the one woman he shouldn’t have picked, and now he’s handed it to Trump.”
In the debates, if he isn’t sharp as a tack, the media will be all over him, and as long as Trump doesn’t shit his pants, he’ll get a pass.
We’ve seen this movie before – Bush couldn’t put two sentences together, but Gore rolled his eyes or something. Kerry, who actually went to Viet Nam, was somehow less of a warrior than Bush in his bullshit flight suit, even though Bush spent the war over here. Hillary Clinton feels a little ill one day and it’s “is she dying? Is she too unhealthy to handle the presidency” for days.
Trump has never really been below 40%, even though he lies to his supporters, fucks them over with his trade shenanigans, puts their lives in danger, and is easily the most corrupt president ever. Combine that with Barr’s corruption and their willingness to do anything possible to fuck with the votes and voters, and you have a recipe for reelection.
I see plenty of possibilities - an early vaccine that works, a terrorist attack, a bombshell surprise against Biden, and most worryingly, voting irregularities, from things like hacking voting systems, sabotage from the top (appointed USPS boss) delaying or losing mail in ballots, very low turnout due to virus fears, or any combination of all of the above.
If Nate Silver isn’t confident, then neither should anyone else be.
Joe Biden is largely incommunicado, which means people are free to project all their hopes and desires on him.
We aren’t going to know what this election is going to look like until at least after the conventions, and especially after the debates. If Joe Biden comes out and starts slinging word salad like he’s been doing, Trump could still win. Also, if the Democrats keep playing footsie with rioters and taking their side against the people being hurt by all this, you could see a preference cascade.
And this just in: 100 police organizations have pulled out of their plan to help protect the Democratic convention in Milwaukee. And there is now a revolt against Biden by the ‘woke’ left. And from their point of view, for good reason.
Trump is currently a big underdog, but the election season has been delayed by COVID, so all bets are off. And there are still three months of campaigning and world events to go. Given that this is 2020, the big election issues will likely be the August supervolcano, the September alien invasion, or the October discovery of a planet-killing asteroid heading our way.
Well for one, he won’t defund the police. Biden has always been a law and order Democrat. That doesn’t exactly fit with the tenor of the times.
Biden has a bit of a tightrope to walk. He has an increasingly activist base, plus the need to keep the center. Trump is helping him as much as he can, but events could easily spirat out of dontrol in any dirextion. Theae are dangerous times. If they get too dangerous, the middle class will vote for whoever will promise to protect them.
That’s Trump’s only trump card. Events could hand it to him.
I think Biden will win - I hope he will win - I’ve already donated to his campaign, have a bumper sticker on my car and a sign in my yard - but to suppose he will win with even a 100-vote margin in the Electoral College is extraordinarily optimistic.
I don’t think Biden is capable of tossing his word salad more than his opponent. For example, here’s Trump’s explanation of why people are protesting:
So I’m not too worried about Biden winning the word salad contest.
First, police organizations are some of the most authoritarian garbage institutions in the United States. I’m not super-worried about this specific behavior by them. Second, no, there isn’t a revolt against Biden, there’s continuing criticism of him by people who dislike aspects of his policies.
There’s a saying on the left: we don’t have political allies, we have political issues, and sometimes we can work with people on issues. Criticizing people is part of that process.
Trump’s word-salad tendencies are baked in already. If Biden started rambling the way Trump does, it would seriously harm him.
The media will harp on any misstatements and gaffes that Biden does in a way that they don’t for Trump. Hell, the news that Trump put pressure on the US Ambassador to have the British Open moved to one of his properties would have derailed another president, and it was in the news for less than a day. He has totally ignored the Russian bounties on American troops (Republicans support the troops!), and nothing. Meanwhile, the media still spends time on Biden’s gaffes, and his touchy feely way of interaction.
I will be perfectly happy if he gets to 270 indubitable votes. Making no predictions. BTW, unless the Dems also win the senate, McTurtle will guarantee that Biden can accomplish nothing.
My best guess is 344-197.. If the virus continues to pummel the red states, it could well be as his as 413-125. Of course, the Barr Gestapo may be on the march Nov 3 to block crucial precincts.