How can Donald Trump win at this point?

[Atamasama]

@Son_of_a_Rich

He could still get his pardon, and he wouldn’t have to do any work.

He’s convicted of state crimes and facing more potential state convictions, and he can’t be pardoned for them. He needs to be POTUS.

One of many reasons why that would never happen.

Anyway, this is more the subject of this other thread:

What are the chances that J.D. Vance will ever serve as POTUS?

I almost want to put this one in Factual Questions, rather than Politics and Elections, because I’m really interested in having my inexpert statistical estimates evaluated rather than having a discussion about Vance’s virtues and vices, but I’m guessing (Mod knows) it will end up in P&E, so here goes: Start with the assumption that the Trump-Vance ticket has a 45% chance of winning in November, very conservatively. If that happens, I figure there’s a 50-50 chance that Trump will live through Ja…