I almost want to put this one in Factual Questions, rather than Politics and Elections, because I’m really interested in having my inexpert statistical estimates evaluated rather than having a discussion about Vance’s virtues and vices, but I’m guessing (Mod knows) it will end up in P&E, so here goes:
Start with the assumption that the Trump-Vance ticket has a 45% chance of winning in November, very conservatively. If that happens, I figure there’s a 50-50 chance that Trump will live through January 20th 2029, so that 45% goes down by about half. There’s also a small chance that Vance will die during the time he serves as VP, and a slightly larger chance that Vance will run for POTUS on his own someday and win that office, so I’m going to budge that figure upward a tad, and estimate that J.D. Vance has approximately a 25% chance, or 3-1 against his ever serving as President.
I’m almost certainly wrong in some of my assumptions, quite possibly all of them, but then again, the estimates may be wrong both high and low, and thereby cancel each other out, more or less. Would you place the odds of Vance serving as POTUS higher than 3-1 against or lower?
Quite significant, yes. If we use lazier logic and say Trump has a half-chance of being elected and a half-chance of not finishing out his first term, then Vance has a 25% chance of being POTUS.
Donald Trump is hardly the picture of health, but he seems to have no unusual physical problems for a man of his age (if he hasn’t had a heart attack yet, he probably won’t for at least another few years), he’s not going to resign voluntarily and I doubt there will ever be a 2/3 Senate majority to remove him from office.
I’d say Trump’s chances of living through a second term are considerably higher than 50-50, and Vance’s chances of succeeding him accordingly lower. Remember, Woodrow Wilson, who had suffered at least two strokes while he was President when medical care wasn’t nearly as good as now, outlived his successor, Warren Harding, and Franklin Roosevelt, who had congestive heart failure, outlived his much younger 1940 opponent, Wendell Willkie.
As for Vance’s chances of being elected on his own, answer unclear, ask again later.
My Magic 8 Ball cracked back in 2016 and has been just spinning randomly and occasionally spurting blue fluid. I’m afraid if I asked it about Vance, it would summon a malevolent reverent to darken my doorstep so I’ve wrapped the Ball in a restraining shroud and buried it beneath an old oak with a guardian sigil carved into the trunk. I don’t know what kind of eldrich magicks Vance might have learned from his “Maw-Maw” but I’m not taking any chances.
I would bet they’d get Trump on the 25th amendment and have Trump declared unable to serve. It’s a fair bit easier than getting a 2/3 majority in the senate.
Well, no documented/publicized chronic health conditions (i.e., he’s not publicly known to be diabetic, have high blood pressure, a cancer history, etc.). On the other hand, he’s overweight, sedentary, has an unhealthy diet, and, if numerous reports are to believed, has anger-management issues.
He’s made it to 78, without (again apparently) any chronic health issues, but given his lifestyle and personality, that seems to be more a function of good genes and luck, than taking care of himself. As time goes on, the odds of that luck running out decrease rapidly, IMO.
Why not take it all the way? If Loser Donald has only a 45% chance - and that number is sinking every day - then he will lose the election and become Loser Loser Donald. In that event, JD (no periods - he took them out) has a 0% chance of serving as President. Zero.
There’s also the possibility that Vance will be replaced on the ticket before the election. I’ve started seeing comments from some of my MAGA type Facebook friends that they are hoping for Trump to replace Vance with RFK Jr. IMHO the chances of that are less than 5%, but it’s not zero.
ETA: Trump’s chances are somewhat less than 50%. I suspect his chances of dying in office should he win are quite a bit lower than 50%. I’m also guessing Vance would have a very poor chance of being the candidate at the top of the ticket, even if he runs as a sitting VP in the Republican primary in '28. All that being said, I’d put his chances as being somewhere between 1% and 5% of ever being POTUS.
You think Trump’s hand-selected Carnival Cabinet of Curiosities are going to pull a 25-skidoo on him? Your optimism is boundless, unfettered by prior experience and rational expectation.
Loyalty is not really a thing among Trumpers. I fully expect anyone who works for him to be entirely selfish and do whatever is in their own best interest.
If Trump is clearly fading they will all run for the next safe haven and leave Trump behind.
Like they did in the winter of '20-'21? A few of those folks were even sane, and they didn’t do it even after he sent a mob to lynch his VP. That won’t be the case in his next administration. It will be kool-aid drinkers heading every department.
I’m thinking more that Trump is severely mentally addled (more than now) and it becomes clear old age will get him soon(ish) and the party needs a new Dear Leader.
Which is pretty much what the 25th amendment is meant for.
Read the Amendment closely. If the President tells Congress he’s able to serve, it would take a 2/3 vote to remove him. Only if the President can not or does not say he’s able to serve would the VP replace him permanently.
Once again the scenario would come down to whether Trump would volunteer to step down or Congress somehow rounding up the votes to drag him out of the White House.
But Trump merely needs to be incapacitated. If Wilson’s wife had allowed his condition to be known and the 25th Amendment were in effect then we may have had President Marshall.
I’d say it’s zero. It’s too late to change ballots in most places. Early voting starts as early as a week from now in some places.
People can quote the odds of an average person Trump’s age living for 8 more years, but you have to factor in the fact that the POTUS should have the best healthcare of anyone on the planet, which will increase Trump’s odds quite a bit.