If Trump dies before the election (say by natural causes) could Vance ride a wave of “sympathy” to the White House, or would the GOP just implode? I don’t think he can keep the MAGA cult alive by himself.
Like he falls out of a window? Og forbid!
The only way Vance could win would be if the voting machines actually were rigged this time and Harris voters just stayed home because they thought this one was in the bag.
Maybe he could be elected dog catcher in Springfield. Maybe.
Never say never.
He certainly is hoping for just such an event. I bet Trump is writhing with fury that he chose someone so obviously angling for the job which rightfully belongs to him only, in perpetuity. He only wanted a doglike adoring stooge and look what he got.
Vance may be that thing we have all feared, a fascist white nationalist misogynist racist asshole who is politically sharp as a tack and clear headed.
He’s not at all “politically sharp as a tack”, as can be seen in any of his public appearances. He’s a disturbing weirdo, and this is clear to any non-MAGA folks around him. He’s not a buffoon, but he’s one of those on-paper smart guys who’s just really awkward around people, and when that is combined with wanting to control women’s bodies and hatred for child-free women, you get a disturbing weirdo who can’t connect to anyone outside of a very narrow subset.
For one night he seemed normal, articulate, and even somewhat bipartisan. On the stump, he’s a firebreathing MAGAcile. I think it’s a certainty that he runs in 2028 but he’s as lacking in charisma as DeSantis and I believe will meet the same fate.
If Trump were to die today, it’s almost certainly too late to replace him on the ballots. So people would have to vote for Trump with the understanding that JD would ultimately receive those electoral votes.
But, it’s not guaranteed that electors so chosen would support JD. Absent “faithless elector” laws, electors are free to vote for whomever they please. I’m sure that the vast majority of any Trump electors would support Vance, but if it’s a close vote in the electoral college all it would take are a few gone rogue to throw the election to the House.
Of course he could get elected on his own. From where he is today. Remember that about half of American voters simply vote for “Whoever (R)”. And if per the OP, trump was to die tomorrow, Vance would 99% likely step right into the “whoever” shoes. And stands a decent (not great) chance of winning in Nov.
Different scenario: Now let’s assume Harris wins in 2024, trump dies or becomes inertly senile well before 2028, and now Vance is one of many contenders for the R nomination in 2028. Based on all the potential R contenders we know about now, will he get the nomination? I think this post nails that scenario:
My bottom line: as a politician, Vance hit a bloop single getting to be the OH senator. Then trump walked him around to third base. And were trump to die, might well walk him to home plate. But there’s no way Vance himself hits a home run on his own.
[Related topic]
We have discussed in several threads how succession works.
It’s 100% clear that after the inauguration, the sitting VP is very much the immediate spare President if the prez dies.
It is very unclear what happens if the elected but not yet inaugurated president-elect dies. Or if the presidential candidate dies before the election, but their party wins anyhow.
Before the party nominating convention it’s easy: the party picks somebody else according to their normal process. But between the party nominating convention and the inauguration the situation is murky. And may be different as to the two parties.
My own personal contention is that the general rule for a pre-election candidate death is that the affected party will promptly elevate their VP candidate to prez candidate and pick a new VP candidate. And IMO the 2024 Rs will do that if necessary. Because the internal war to do anything else will take them too long. But it will be noisy.
And that’s like, just my opinion, man. More learned folks may have better ideas.
I don’t really think it’s all that unclear. For a few scenarios:
- President-elect dies after the EC has confirmed his victory: the VP-elect becomes President on January 20.
- President-elect dies between election day and the EC voting: the President-elect’s electors will cast their votes in line with state laws. Some states have laws that specifically anticipate this scenario, allowing the national party to name a replacement. Otherwise, the electors may vote for whomever they please. Being stalwart party men, they will almost certainly vote for whomever the party declares as the replacement.
- Presidential candidate dies post-convention but before election day: both parties have processes in their bylaws for replacing a deceased candidate. Depending on when this happens, it may be too late to replace the deceased candidate’s name on the ballots but any vote for the deceased would de facto be a vote for the new candidate. Should the candidate win, the electors would be obligated to him in the same way that they would have been obligated to the deceased candidate.
This is the concern. He looks and sounds like what the MAGAs think a smart person looks and sounds like. Even some undecideds/independents may be swayed as well. This is why I think Vance is a much better candidate than Trump (if we are just talking appealing to voters here). He also lacks Trumps overwhelming baggage. Scratch the surface and take a look at his political positions and it gets uglier, but these days people are swayed enough by the superficial and wont bother taking a closer look.
He’s Ted Cruz with a better nose.
Had Vance done a Presidential run clean, without being tied to Trump, he might have pulled it off. He’d have had to do a better job of whitewashing his past statements than we have actually seen, but I think part of why we haven’t seen that in reality is because no one really expected Trump to pick Vance this time. Getting caught by surprise cost Vance a lot of preparation time.
But as it stands now? Trump suddenly dying will screw everything up. Sure, some MAGAs will continue to vote, either in memory of Trump, or just reflexively being Republican as they have always been. But some will lose faith, and fall away. And some will, as they are wont, do a deep-dive into conspiracy theories. Trump isn’t dead, the GOP kidnapped him. Trump isn’t dead, the Democrats kidnapped him and the GOP was too weak to save him. Trump is dead, but was killed to stop him. The list could go on. Those people will end up all over the map, in terms of voting behavior, and will cost the GOP the election.
Agreed the CTs will be all over the map. But if you’re a MAGAphile, the best way to honor trump and thwart the shadowy evildoers will be to vote R. So that’s what they’ll (mostly) do.
Agreed. Vance in ten years, barring some kind of weird meltdown? Sure, he could run and maybe win. Vance on his own pulling an Obama (in that he’s a young and relatively unknown politician winning the big chair)? Unlikely without whatever toxic charisma the Great Pumpkin uses and which Vance lacks.
But it’s that “mostly” that’s the key. As with everything else in this election, the results will turn on a small margin in some key states. The GOP losing even 2% of the MAGAs to some CT would probably secure the win for Harris in those states.
I like this one:
By Nick Anderson, found over on Daily Kos.
Trump voters show up for Trump, no one else.
Trump is a weak candidate.
If the Republican National Committee announced that Vance was the replacement nominee — and they would — get ready for President Vance. J. D. would easily beat Harris.
Does anyone say Vance is the Second Coming of Jesus? No, Vance would lose, the really hardcore MAGAs wouldnt know what to do.
Trump’s last words probably would be something like Vote for J.D. And even if not, Trump is not Jesus. He’s King Cyrus. A very slightly kinder and gentler Cyrus II would do fine.
Don’t know how that happened but I did not post that. Trump has tried to get people to vote for other candidates when he is not on the ballot already, he has a very very poor track record. Trump voters only show up for him.
Not a fucking chance.
If he’s capable of speech at that last moment, he’ll be using it to scream at whoever is there to save him.