Carried over from this closed thread, do you think Trump will stick with JD Vance or ditch him for a new VP pick? And if so, who will he choose?
I think there’s a very good chance he’ll get so increasingly desperate at the polling numbers, he’ll blame it on Vance and pick someone new. I wouldn’t put money on it, though.
I can’t see it. It would effectively kill Vance’s political career and no “Want to spend more time with my kids” would hide the fact that he got booted. In fact, I’d be worried that Vance wouldn’t leave quietly. Likewise, it world be a huge embarrassment to Trump to have to kick off his VP candidate for being a joke. I think he’s stuck with Vance.
Normally, I would say “definitely not”, but the writers of this season’s reality are really working overtime.
Trump’s poll numbers don’t seem especially bad to me. Are they worse at this point than he looked against Clinton?
Edit: Answering my own question, Trump is polling better against Harris than he did against Clinton at this point:
Exactly eight years ago on August 18, 2016, polling analysis site FiveThirtyEight, which became part of ABC News in 2018, showed Clinton with a substantial national polling lead over Trump. The polling average showed the Democratic candidate with 43.6 percent support compared to Trump’s 36.8 percent—a lead of 6.8 points for Clinton.
Comparatively, Harris is only 2.6 points ahead of Trump nationally in FiveThirtyEight’s current average as of Sunday afternoon.
From here: Kamala Harris Polling Compared to Hillary Clinton's in 2016 - Newsweek
Vance is still loyal, which is the first second and third quality Trump looks for in a lacky. “Strength” is next, but that’s mostly defined as being strong enough to stay loyal.
It is not, strictly speaking, Trump’s choice to replace Vance:
Republican Party rules governing vacancies
See also: Republican presidential nomination, 2024
Rule 9 of The Rules of the Republican Party provides guidance on how to fill presidential and vice presidential vacancies.[9]
It says that the Republican National Committee (RNC) is authorized to select a new candidate by majority vote or by reconvening the national convention to fill the vacancy. In the former process, the three RNC members from each state—comprised of a state chair, a national committeeman, and a national committeewoman—would be able to cast the same number of votes as the entire delegation from that state to the convention.[9] Under Rule 9(c), if the three RNC members did not all support the same candidate, their votes would be proportionately distributed.[9] For example, each RNC member would cast 13 of Kansas’ 39 delegate votes.
Whether Trump could successfully demand the RNC remove and replace Vance with another candidate for Vice President without Vance’s accedence is a separate discussion but it is not just Trump’s decision alone.
Stranger
According to tanTrump’s own logic (if I remember and understood it correctly) he would have to pay whatever Kamala Harris claims to have spent campaigning against them both and it would be a coup and completely illegal and soooo unfair were he to ditch his own pick.
So I really would like to see it, regret it as I might afterwards if it turned out to be a savvy move.
Trump demands loyalty, but the first thing he looks for is whether that person has something that can benefit Trump. J.S. Vance could be as loyal as a German Shepard, but if Trump thought he was a liability, he’d throw him under a bus without a second thought.
How long ago was Vance selected? He’s already lasted longer than some of Trump’s personnel decisions.
There is no provision in the RNC rules to remove a Vice-Presidential nominee – as you note, there are only provisions to fill a vacancy. The decision to make Vance the VP nominee was made by the 4,000+ delegates to the Republican National Convention, and only they could undo that decision.
I wouldn’t be surprised whatever happens.
Isn’t there some kinda contract or something binding the agreement a candidate would be a running mate, they’d have to sign? Seems like there oughta be
I’m delighting in the fact that I’m pretty sure even the Orange Dimbulb is well aware of what a liability Vance is. He can see his falling numbers, the criticisms Vance is getting, and the popularity of Walz. But for the practical reasons already mentioned earlier, I’m also pretty sure that Trump is stuck with him.
Even if Trump could somehow contrive to get rid of Vance, the optics would be an absolute disaster for the campaign, and that alone is reason enough not to do it. Vance is here to stay, and I dearly hope he’s instrumental in sinking the campaign.
Oh, come on. 1) Trump instructs the RNC to change the rules so he can do what he wants, and 2) Trump does what he wants.
If Vance is told that he has medical and/or family issues that require him to step aside, then he will have medical and/or family issues that require him to step aside. It won’t matter whether he’s happy about it or not.
This all will happen if Trump believes that Vance is getting too much press (for his awfulness) and that Trump needs a big story to break in order to get the press back for himself. Right now, all people are talking about is how weird Vance is and how small Trump’s audiences are.
This is unsustainable.
I cannot see him ever admitting he made a mistake. So no, I cannot see Trump getting rid of Vance. However, Trump can admit his son made a mistake in pushing Vance into the spotlight, so yeah, I can see some sort of shell game of “reasons” Vance has to step aside. Altho, they would have to Pay Vance off with something, maybe a sweet cabinet position - but if I were him, I would demand cash up front. Or maybe gold bars.
As I posted in another thread, JD Vance is the most unpopular VP pick in modern history, polling even lower than Sarah Palin at her worst. I think the idea that the most unpopular VP pick in history suddenly developed “medical and/or family issues” and has to be replaced will be way too much for most voters to swallow.
The inevitable impression will be that Trump pulled exactly the switch that he’s been accusing Harris of doing, except doing it even later in the election cycle and doing it by force. Won’t work, won’t happen.
Trump voters believe a dozen impossible things before breakfast. One more wouldn’t even be noticed.
Trump’s voters would love that Vance’s excuses are plainly fake, and that he was forced off against his will. It would prove to them how very very STRONG their Strong Man is.
For that reason alone, Trump might ditch Vance.
As for Trump suddenly doing something he’s accused someone else of doing—when has he not gloried in his own hypocrisy??
The Republican National Convention adopted the rules that the Republican National Committee operates under. The convention would have to change the rules. I know many here think Trump has a magic wand where he can just bend rules, the law and reality to suit his whims, but he still has to go through the process to have a legally enforceable outcome.
That being said, of course if Trump told Vance to resign from the ticket he would resign from the ticket. It would be politically impossible for him not to.
I’ve stated a couple of times here that I wouldn’t be surprised to hear that Vance claims he is stepping down because of all the mean racist things that liberals are saying about his wife and kids.
I lack your faith in supposed Republican determination to follow rules.
All right, Republicans will herpdy derp and then a new Republican VP candidate will just appear on people’s ballot in the fall.
Agree. I mentioned in another thread how the Republicans are such followers. They see how energized the Democrats’ ticket has been so I am sure they are pondering how to regain some momentum here. “Hey, they changed horses and look what happened! Maybe we should try that, too!”
One thing we are all sort of blind to here in these environs is that MAGAs and Republicans in general look favorably on Vance - while Trump is uber-sensitive to polling, most of the flock are not, and are just needing someone to tell them what to do next. I suspect many in the bubble do not have a sense that Vance is a liability at all - he’s one of them.