That’s a good point. Trump likely isn’t getting any pressure from the people he actually interacts with (his minions and his audiences) to change out Vance.
He does look at polls, though, and there are polls specifically about Walz v Vance, now:
If that continues—or gets worse—it will bother Trump (especially if it turns out that most news stories that mention “Trump” are actually about how badly Vance is polling).
So who would he choose then?
He won’t because he cannot admit mistakes. And if he picks Nikki Haley, no diffrence to election. Trump will not get back the women he already lost.
Unless Vance were to resign from running for VP (and no idea why he would) I don’t see Trump replacing him. Virtually all polls show any lead one presidential candidate may have is by the margin of error or less. IIRC, there’s a Newsweek poll showing Trump in the lead by 3 or 4 %, so no, I don’t see replacing Vance especially when victory for Trump is well within reach.
The RNC was fully subsumed into Trump, Inc. not too long ago. i.e. Trump controls it completely and doesn’t have to demand anything from them he can just dictate.
He doesn’t even have to dictate: “Oh, that’s getting in he way of what dear leader wants to do? Here ya go, Sir, we’ll take care of that for ya. Easiest thing in the world!”
Earlier this year, in fact. The co-chair of the RNC is now Trump’s daughter-in-law, Lara Trump (Eric’s wife).
It won’t happen. Vance has no reason to quit and Trump can’t make him.
“But Trump controls the RNC”
Not really. He has no idea how to wield power effectively and wouldn’t be able to figure out how to replace Vance if he tried.
“They’ll offer him X to step down”
What could they offer him that’s better than a job with no responsibilities, from which he can’t be fired, and where if his morbidly-obese McDonald’s-loving benefactor dies, he gets to become president?
I keep seeing this, and the first question that keeps coming to mind is: why isn’t he running with Pence now, like he did then? And the only answer that makes sense to me is: because of course Trump is willing to admit that someone turned out to be the wrong pick for a job, sure as he’s been famously known to use You’re Fired as a catchphrase. Remember how many people got shown the door when he was president? Remember how he’d then talk shit about them, despite being the guy who hired them back when?
He would say Vance made the mistakes.
And I do not see how Vance can stand up against an order from Trump that he drop out.
However, every day Trump fails to pull this trigger, it is less likely he ever will.
Trump: “Drop out.”
Vance: “Or else what?”
What’s Trump gonna do? Campaign against his own running mate?
Trump would review, with J.D., the private polling Susie and Kellyanne used to convince Donald that Vance is box office poison. And I think Vance would be loyal enough to fall on his sword.
If Vance was stubborn, Trump would tell him about how the RNC can have an emergency zoom meeting to change any rule Donald wants them to change.
I’m not predicting Trump will try to get Vance off the ticket. But I do predict that if Trump tries, he will succeed.
Vance is very popular amongst Trumpists. Trump has no reason to get rid of him.
You make it sound a lot easier than it actually would be. In practice, they’d have to reconvene the Convention, draft and pass a rules package allowing the replacement of the nominee, carry out that process, pick a new running mate, have a roll call to nominate them, and fully litigate any legal challenges brought by Vance, and they’d have to do it all in about 9 business days between now and Ohio’s deadline for finalizing the ballots. This would not be a happy honeymoon like Biden stepping down was.
For a party as dysfunctional as the QOP is right now I don’t think it can be done.
Vance, unlike Trump, isn’t stupid. He knows Trump has nothing to offer him that’s better than what he has right now and that “loyalty” will buy him nothing if he agrees to jump under the bus.
Pence isn’t that stupid.
Vance legally challenging Donald Trump is too much of a Democratic dream for me to take seriously.
Looking at the Republican National Committee rules, I see they have to post an agenda ten days before they meet. So what? It’s an emergency, so they waive that. But because they are capable of breaking rules, Vance would not make them do it. Donald Trump is not a follow-the-rules guy, and Vance knows it!
If Vance is as disloyal as predicted, why would he even want to remain a Republican? And if he wants to cross the aisle – a highly unlikely good idea – he will not want to remain Trump’s number two.
If Vance ever wants to be re-elected to the senate, he needs to avoid being the most disloyal Republican ever.
If he doesn’t get elected veep his political career is probably over anyway. He’ll coast through his term and get a cushy Fox News gig like Paul Ryan.
Well, I beg to disagree. He ran with the man, probably against his own convictions.
Truly Vance would be better off dropping out, So many of Trump’s compatriots are in jail, indicted or black balled.
That trail is so full of pot holes and quick sand if I was a politician/lawyer of any ilk I wouldn’t stand in the same room with Trump. He’s poisonous.
Trump doesn’t have to actually reconvene the RNC. He just has to make Vance think he would.
But that’s not the real threat. The real threat is that Trump would blame Vance when he loses. Sure, he can’t say anything now, but Trump has shown he can still command the party after losing. The rabid fanbase we’re worried will be violent can be directed towards Vance as well.
Heck, the narrative is already there. I tried pushing it myself. Trump’s VP is the guy who compared Trump to Hitler. He can easily be spun as a Democratic operative. And, no, the fact that Trump didn’t realize this won’t count against him, as Trump is axiomatically always right for his most devoted fans.
Plus, even without all of this, I see very little sign that Vance has a backbone.
Don’t get me wrong: I don’t think Trump will try it, for reasons already stated. But I do think that he has enough leverage to push Vance out if he wanted to. I’m not sure Trump would even use anyone he didn’t have that kind of leverage over.
It does raise the question, though, who would accept the position? Any halfway savvy candidate would give it a pass, I imagine.