How can Donald Trump win at this point?

I think it matters, and I’d look a bit deeper, into the very favorable or unfavorable numbers. Looking at the last YouGov one, they are both underwater on that. Among likely voters Harris is -13, compared to Trump -19. Among self-identified Independents it’s Harris -13 again and Trump -24.

My suspicion is that the “very” group drives voting behavior much more than “somewhat” does.

It is a surprise to me that Trump does not have larger numbers in each of the “very” groups. I had expected opinion of him to be love or hate and Harris to be more “somewhat” approval, but Harris is two points ahead in the “very much approve” among likely voters, along with her four points less in the “very” unapprove rating. And among self-identified Independents that very much unapprove difference is starker, her better by 11.

Team Trump’s effort to get her hated by those outside his base has failed so far. None of the shit he’s thrown has stuck yet. Tactically he likely is correct that he needs to more disapproving of her intensely enough to vote against her to win, but fortunately his execution on negative campaigning has been ineffective to date.