How can Donald Trump win at this point?

[DSeid]

@Aeschines

The canceled Red Wave of 2022 is a very strong narrative. It’s been debunked? Sincere request: direct me to a good starter post in the polls thread, and I will read.

Start from here.

Polling: Unskewed Polls and comments on polling (moved from Harris Thread)

You mean … omigosh! Polls did not call every race right?!!! It is not a quibble to dispute the false narrative of a predicted Red wave, especially when it is being used to imply that polls are predictably skewed in a direction. Reality check as linked a bit above: polls almost always systemically err one way or the other, in Senate race 5.4%, and House races 6.1% on average. Both directions occur apparently randomly. ‘22 was actually a better performing year than usual.

‘22 was as on the money for polling as it gets. Some pundits selected polls that allowed them to tell a narrative that drove clicks, but the forecasts based on the aggregated polling were amazingly good.