How can Donald Trump win at this point?

Politics & Elections
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2442

It is how Trump can win since it’s putting his opponent in a bad light. It’s being pushed by his campaign of course. Fox News has a rolling count of how long it’s been since Harris has done a press conference. As of today she hasn’t done any as a candidate and it’s been 70 days. If you want to “what about” Trump has done several and he sucked but that’s not the point. Even moderate and left leaning press are reporting it. I would love it if Harris were the perfect candidate then the answer to this thread would be different. But she’s not and some of her deficiencies are showing.

https://www.axios.com/2024/09/19/harris-media-strategy-hide-election

2443

Lack of a press conference or a NYT interview is not a “deficiency”. It is as insignificant as the 'worked at McDonalds" thing>

2444

Ok sure. You like beating the drum about the NYT. This is not about that. Read the Axios article. That’s a left leaning site. If this was just about the Times not getting an interview or what right wing sites are saying it wouldn’t matter. This is not that.

2445

I dont care. Maybe Axios reads the Times. But it doesnt matter- number of press conferences are not something you measure a candidate by. “Hmm, looks like the Fascist Party candidate has given more press conferences than the Sane normal candidate. Guess I have to vote fascist!” :roll_eyes:

Was this an issue in 2020? No.

They are just reaching for something, anything.

2446

Right. Because this election is a runaway. They are desperate.

It’s still a coinflip. There are still disengaged voters that don’t see things the way you do. (I know, how dare they!) showing a weakness that even left leaning media is taking note of is a bad thing. Even more troubling is the inability to answer what should be home runs the few times questions have been asked.

2447

Did. Right off I get confused by what they do and do not consider being interviewed. They are giving Trump credit for doing14 interviews? Really? And MSNBC doesn’t count because they are friendly?

FWIW another take, not completely uncritical but a bit more nuanced.

Personally my take is that interviews offer little gain to the campaign at some significant risk. There is little that she can do in an interview that will increase turn out and the unengaged voters she needs to reach are the least likely to be paying attention to them. Or to care if she gives them or not. But fumbles and misspeaks can happen, and while gibberish is just converted into something coherent for Trump any imperfection will be played in loop if it Harris.

That said their infrequency does make them more attention worthy in the news cycle when they do happen. As stated on the linked article, we can expect more in these last weeks, as they will be useful tactically to gain possession of the news cycle.

2448

The Harris campaign is making a calculation balancing the benefit of giving interviews vs the cost of having them go poorly, and is doing interviews based on that calculation.

They’ve been doing everything right so far so i’m willing to give the the benefit of the doubt and asusme they’re giving the number and venue of interv iews that maximizes their chances.

2449

Trump’s latest policy proposal is to do “The Purge”, apparently.

2450

A Man Was Lynched Yesterday

2451

Re my last post, I just realized that it might be against the rules (post with nothing except a link).

I was trying to think of a way to express my outrage over Trump’s call to violence that even a conservative swing voter might agree with.

2452

Gallup does keep track of developments, but they are more useful for long term trends. I’m not entirely sure where voters are moving to, but age of voters is getting older as we babyboomers refuse to die and get more medical cures. Changing demographics of US voters and Republican, Democratic coalitions, 1996-2023 | Pew Research Center
That sort of thing Gallup can predict for 4 or 8 years ahead. Quick things (Vance! Kamala!) not so much.

2453

They said they cut one Walz interview with MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow and 25+ interviews for Trump and Vance on Fox, ONN, and the New York Post. Those numbers wouldn’t help the balance comparison.

I did appreciate the CJR article. It mentions some smaller market interviews that still serve to get her message out.

Yep, nothing like a candidate for “freedom” to call for mass violence against petty criminals.

Here he is taking about “kids” with calculators trying to stay under $950, when everyone knows the real money in in real estate fraud.

2454

OK, closed on my deceased mother’s house, and then my 87-year-old aunt suddenly got sick and died, so flew to NYC for the funeral. Quite a week, so let me catch up a bit here…

Yes, Harris dodges questions a bit much for my taste, but answering them better is a non-critical skill that she can develop over time.

Similarly, the interview thing… I kinda admire this, as she is putting the dumbass incompetent media in its place. Do you know why Trump does endless “interviews” and “press conferences” (in scare quotes because, as another poster pointed out above, they are not even sincere attempts at being those things)? Because it’s free, mostly sedentary TV time for him. Perhaps it’s not so much that Harris doesn’t like to give interviews but that she feels her time can be more wisely used. On dailykos, a lot of staff (including kos himself) and diarists sneer at this criticism. There is no respect for the traditional media there, and I am with them.

You know what was a great “interview” that tested her on a bunch of different questions in a tough environment? The debate! And she killed it. I don’t think it makes sense to say that she’s hiding from the press when she is ready to represent like that.

Surely she sees that Biden was an inadequate (i.e., dogshit) communicator during his presidency and will not want to emulate the deficiency. What I care about is whether she does this job well or not–I don’t care whether she pays homage to obsolete media industry templates. I feel that I have a pretty good grasp of where she stands on the issues, and where she needs to fill in some blanks. I think that, right now, she dodges questions when she doesn’t have a media-ready answer. That she is doing as well as she has on such short notice is a testament to, well… a whole damn lot of good qualities, such as discipline, organization, resilience, and good old savoir faire.

That doesn’t mean I’m some sort of ultimate Harris fanboy, however. I think she will at least do a good job. She seems to have the potential to do an amazing, perhaps even transformative job, but time will tell.

Meanwhile, Trump has seemed to settle into a boring drone of saying dumb shit. I mean, it’s genuinely crazy and deranged, but he has no more energy to give and therefore can’t escalate further. He’s going through the motions–and there ain’t much motion. I was watching a bunch of political channels on YouTube, but now there just isn’t all that much interesting stuff to report. You’ve heard it all before.

More than ever, I am confident that Trump is going to lose. He and his campaign just have the vibe of tuna salad left out of the fridge accidentally for a few hours, and people are sniffing at it and wondering if it’s going to make them sick if they eat it. I think it’s fair to say that he has gained extremely few voters since Harris entered the race, and it really comes down to how many she has gained. We have destroyed in terms of fundraising, and our ground game makes theirs look like something they simply turned over to idiot Charlie Kirk with very little funding (oh wait, that’s just a fact, not a joke!).

It’s not a coin flip. She’s going to get a solid win. And no, there is no risk of “complacency.” We all know to vote. We will.

2455

Another experience with a Trump supporter at the post-wake dinner. So she is my aunt’s cousin’s daughter (my grandmother’s brother’s daughter’s daughter), which makes her I think my second cousin once removed?

Anyhow, nice enough person, but I was talking to her during dinner, and she said she, as a business owner, supported Trump for his “better policies” and didn’t think Harris was a very good candidate. I see this as a low-malice, high-stupidity situation. She doesn’t like JD Vance much, however! So I guess she ain’t all bad…

2456

It is not a 'weakness" Saying it over and over doesnt make it true. How many press conferences did Biden make in 2020? No one bothered to make any sort of big deal about it.

And from your cite-Local TV interviews: Trump, 7; trump has not done a single interview. If they count a asking a question and getting random BS as an answer, then they are sane washing and not worth listening to. Trump has given no real interviews.

And from here

[quote=“DSeid, post:2447, topic:1005351”] Columbia Journalism Review
“She’s not sitting down for regular interviews or fielding questions from the press, certainly not to the degree that her counterpart, Donald Trump, i[/quote]

Note they said 'field" questions, instead of answering questions, but still the idea is trump gives interviews. He does not.

2457

She is your second cousin.

2458

Yes, they are reaching.But the job of the Dems is to limit their reach, or stop it entirely.
Foxnews is winning on this. It’s an easy-to-understand issue, perfect for convincing low information voters that Harris is incompetent and scared.

And Harris could easily put an end to it, just by doing what all politicians are expected to do…hold some frickin press conferences.

This is a BIG issue on all the conservative media sites.
Harris is losing it, big-time.

She could easily take complete control over the issue, but she has decided to let Fox lead her by the nose.
Why?

2459

She was criticized on right-wing media for not giving interviews, and then she gave some interviews. Now they say she doesn’t have enough press conferences. If she gave a press conference, they wouldn’t acknowledge it, but would start complaining about something else; maybe that she didn’t do any town hall meetings.

She could continue chasing some right-wing approval that will never come. That would be letting Fox News lead her by the nose.

2460

It’s not a coin flip. She’s going to get a solid win. And no, there is no risk of “complacency.” We all know to vote. We will.

This. This right here. (I really wish I had an ability to embed that pic of Leonardo DiCaprio pointing at his late night TV just now!)

There are few things in discussions like these more vapidly infuriating than the false equivalency of outcome for its own sake.

“Whatever happens, it’s gonna be real close,” or “I’m calling this a toss-up,” indicate nothing other than someone simultaneously ignorant and desiring to be seen as knowledgeable.

It is not a close race. By any metric. She leads handily in PA & NV, the blue wall is very much holding strong, and the GOP are having a nightmare of a time trying to hold onto NC, GA, & AZ. She already has what she needs to win.
He, OTOH, needs to take all of those states. Not one, all. And manage to not lose OH or FL in the process. I do not think we fully understand how hard that is for anyone. Leave alone this guy.

Add to this the fact that it is very rare for elections to break close where swing states are concerned. 2000 was a notable exception. 2016, OTOH, the only election that trump was able to secure an EC victory, had all swing states break his way. That not happening in 2020 is how he wound up with so dramatic a loss. To Biden, no less.

Blue States are simply too numerous and EC heavy to defeat with anything less than every swing state the GOP can muster. And there is nothing on the horizon to indicate that’s happening.

Why?

Her campaign is centered around playing it safe and not playing the games the GOP and FOX, OANN, NewsMin, et al so desperately need her to.

What I see in her campaign is the same thing I see at commercial Air Shows. Yeah, you can look at the new plane up close, and they’ll even do a nice fly-by or two. But you’re not going to see crazy stunt flying all over the place, no matter what the listed capabilities are. Barrell rolls look cool, but crashes don’t help the order book, should something go wrong.

She’s playing it safe, and I for one think that kind of intelligence only adds to her appeal. It’s what we need in a US President, after all. Yeah, that’s kind of hard to get across; I get that. But I think most “undecided” voters either see that and will go her way, or were always trump tankies too scared to admit it.

In the other corner, trump is boxed into a virtually untenable position. He can’t dial back the crazy, as that will soften his base. But he also can’t go any further with it, as the steady bleeding of GOP endorsements over to Harris make plain. So what is he to do?

What he always does when it’s obvious he’s about to lose. Start blaming the system. While also hoping that claiming he won’t run in '28 will somehow lighten his Sentencing. These aren’t harbingers of victory, in case that needs to be explained to anyone.

There is no question that complacency is the real enemy here. Even in my super-safe blue state, I am absolutely voting and donating and volunteering.
But that’s how it was in 2020 also. The GOP, and to a le$$er extent, the click-driven media, have obvious motives for spreading stupid FUD like “close race” & “coin flip”.

But the woman is right. When we fight, we win.

Thanks for reading my TED talk…

2461

I do not know what it is gonna be. Guesses I got. Hopes for a major win with coattails, and even some justifications for those hopes. Optimism I got. And I have no interest is diminishing whatever benefit you feel you get from such highly confident pronouncements, from your preaching the “good news!”

I do however have to push back on false statements.

By the main metric we have, admittedly a very crude one, polling, it is a close race. She does not “lead handily” in current polling in PA or NV. Certainly those polls may be systemically off three or more points in her direction and an accurate snapshot would have her ahead handily. Could be. Or could be the other way.