Yeah. Nice calm day. I have a plan. and then 
AHHHHH.
Oh and Excel energy called to say that power will be out from 8am until 4pm tomorrow. Ok. I have a couple of books downloaded into my Kindle. I won’t be able to do anything for work. Or Jack at home tomorrow. I won’t have water either. At least out of the faucet.
I suspect I will drive about an hour, go to a Verizon store and talk to them about replacing my phone.
This appeals to me on a few levels. Harris looks much better by not getting into the mud with a pig. She removes Trump’s most effective weapon (controlling the narrative), and makes a much clearer distinction between a candidate with policies and one without.
“He’s got nothing!” and ignoring every insult will be a very effective attack on Trump because it highlights just how small he really is.
Verily, you are correct!
New polls are out looking good for Harris. Kos himself delivers the news:
Dunno, guys, this all looks good to my eye. Good news in the Senate as well. 538 has her back up to 58.
Trump is inert right now. Will “They’re eating the DAWGS!” be the last smidgeon of interest (negative, to be sure–but that’s all he does) he ever generates?
It doesn’t look like a good position to be in as we count down the last 32 days…
It depends on how much interest comes out of the latest Jack Smith filing that went public and has some damning quotes in it.
Yeah, that certainly doesn’t look good for Trump, but I meant things that Trump was doing to generate buzz, etc.
I saw one new video of him today where he seemed… really, really bad. He’s gone beyond “low-energy” to “Has he just woken up from a defibrillation?”–but I don’t think that counts…
I am afraid that the dock workers’ strike is going to swing the election to Trump. Prices are going to go up and people who may have felt the economy might be improving are going to blame the Democratic Party and vote for Trump.
Until and unless prices do go up within a month it’s not going to have much if any effect on the election.
ETA: Here is one article:
And the relevant quote:
A prolonged work stoppage of several weeks or months could rekindle inflation for some goods and trigger layoffs at manufacturers as raw materials dry up, experts said.
The election is just a month away, and unfortunately for the Republicans it doesn’t look like they have enough time for this to affect consumers in a significant way before they vote.
How much interest?
Zero. That’s my guess.
Other than Msnbc junkies, nobody will know or care.
I looked briefly at the new indictment, and it’s basically boring. It lists anonymous witnesses with redacted names like “p5” saying things that might be pretty bad.
But it offers nowhere near the level of excitement that will look good on TV and actually grab the attention of the only vital audience which matters–the still uninformed and uninterested voters who will determine who wins the election.
If the graphic photos at Mar a Lago (cartons of secrets in the bathtub) didn’t convince people that Trump’s a crook , then Jack Smith’s words won’t either.
I tend to agree with you, but why/how is it less juicy than Comey’s comment on possible emails?
Every little bit helps, especially when momentum already seems to. be moving in one way.
Smith would get more attention if he put the court date a week after election day.
Don’t give the big manufacturers any ideas.
Every single vote he gets is acquired this way.
I took @Czarcasm to mean, among other things, various ballot-counting and election-certification shenanigans. I posted about an October 1st Status Kuo article detailing why Trump’s realistic paths here are far, far more limited than is commonly imagined. And that may be an understatement on my part – Jay Kuo lays out the case that the election-muddying doors are essentially shut.
I don’t really disagree. In another thread (I think it was a different one at least) I called this the “October No Surprise”. I expected there not to be anything new to anyone who was paying attention to this case before, and anyone who wasn’t paying attention is unlikely to start now.
I’m allowing for the possibility of some new, shocking revelation that could impact the election, but I don’t really expect it.
I suppose one surprise that could very well happen is full on war break out between Israel and Iran. I mean we just had missiles fired from Iran into Israel. Not a proxy, but Iran. And Israel will undoubtedly react with some military counterstrike. What’s the tipping point to some full scale military engagement?
And then what are the reactions of the rest of the countries who have a vested interest in the region or outcome? Russia is unlikely to get involved, if only because Ukraine is taking all their resources. But what happens with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, etc? And does China insert themselves into the conflict, even if limited to weapons supplied to Iran?
The US will undoubtedly lead a coalition of continued sort support for Israel, with more money and weapons. Does the US get sucked into participation beyond defensive measures for Israel?
Then what are the policy differences been the two candidates, and how might that affect the election? Would an open conduct necessitate Israel pulling back on Hamas? Would a strong support for Israel against Iran be expected from both parties?
Would Biden limit to support like with Ukraine, and would Trump push for active military deployment?
Is there a way this helps Trump win? A way to sink Trump’s chances? Or would it be a wash as the policies would be effectively the same?
I suppose that may need to be a new thread.
I’m not sure what sort of full scale engagement is possible when the two countries don’t border each other. Air strikes are as far as this can go and Iran’s missile stockpile is already significantly down.
Iran isn’t going to invade Iraq and Jordan to get to Israel.
There was one that included such, but it got itself locked down.
Narrow focus I suspect enlarging conflict helps Trump. Biden/Harris need to publicly support Israel’s responding to Iran’s middle barrage with “consequences” and they (along with the region, but keeping an election lens here) are best off if the response is calibrated such that all sides can back down from all out war with many additional civilians killed.
Iran has more to throw and only one has to get through landing in a major city to be … bad. Israel can destroy nuclear plants and more. American interests could be targeted by proxies. Other actors can see opportunities…
Do not underestimate how bad it could get.
It could get bad, but the question is could it get bad enough in the next month to affect undecided Americans, who by and large don’t pay attention to the news. If its just Muslims and Jews killing each other on the other side of the world, I don’t think it will sink in, particular if, as is likely, its more Muslims getting killed than Jews.