It could further push Muslims in Michigan and Georgia away from Harris.
And on that note…
Tomorrow the line at Costco will be out the door with people returning their 126 rolls of toilet paper.
Okay, are those people who finally ran out of TP hoarded during Covid now gonna regret doing it again? Shelves were empty. Now TP doesnt go bad, but they were buying up all the bananas too. I bet Google gets a lot of hits on 'what to do with overripe bananas" and searches for banana bread recipes. 
“When will they ever learn…”
“Lightly used.”
OK, inching back from the ledge but not inside the building yet. I doubt I will feel safe until this election is resolved (in the correct direction of course).
The Republicans will never stop trying to break democracy and install themselves as a permanent Baathist-style authoritarian minority, from this election to beyond. There is no “safe,” there is only eternal vigilance and aggressive defense. I apologize for any effect on your anxiety but it’s the truth.
If Israel and/or the US attack the Iranian oil industry, which would constitute a massive escalation, it’s likely that oil prices and consequently gas prices in the US will skyrocket. It would be hard to come up with a worse scenario for the Democrats hitting voters in the pocketbook just before the election while memories of the 2022 inflation are still fresh. It could easily swing a close election all by itself.
The latest shit move on the part of Donnie’s campaign is claiming that FEMA is broke because Biden gave all the money to “illegal immigrants”. Not a shred of evidence for this, you can look up FEMA’s monthly report to Congress and look at how the money is accounted for and know that it’s bullshit. But it has resonated with the morons, as has recreational outrage that “only” $750 is being given to the victims. Look, this $750 has been given for immediate relief for EVERY natural disaster in recent years. It’s all FEMA can do without Congressional approval. Yet you’ve got right wingers spewing smoke from their ears and flames from their mouths about how “illegals” get everything and Americans get nothing. Hopefully, it’s only believed by those who were already MAGA in the first place but this has the potential to grow legs that it doesn’t deserve.
Heh, that resonates, whenever there’s a hurricane or such at home in PR people start complaining about it “because it’s discrimination against us”, regardless of how much more is approved later if/when Congress authorizes and appropriates supplemental funding and actual claims estimates are reviewed.
Flames from their mouths?
Flames. Flames on the side of my face!
Poetic license.
LMFAO 2x!
Just looking at swing state poll results, cribbing off the ones listed on Silver:
ARIZONA: Trump seems to be ahead; almost all polls have him between 1 and 5 points up.
FLORIDA: Trump consistently ahead but not by as much as I thought; his lead sits at 3-4 points. That’s fairly wide in a large state, but, still.
GEORGIA: Quinnipiac claims Trump holds a 5.5 point lead; no one else agrees. Everything else is close to even, taken together. Given that the cheating here will be significant I think Trump is the favourite but it’s not over.
MICHIGAN: Generally Harris-leaning but Trump has been ahead in two recent polls.
MINNESOTA: Harris ahead consistently, the lead is likely around 5 points.
NEVADA: Polling here is oddly inconsistent. Harris has two recent really good polls, but a few polls claim Trump may have a tiny edge. Generally it appears Harris is winning here.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Harris is well ahead.
NORTH CAROLINA: Or what’s left of it anyway. Trump is consistently ahead in every poll save one by AtlasIntel, who are consistently one of the weird outliers in every state. It’s a thin lead, but consistent.
PENNSYLVANIA: Very concerning. Trump is almost certainly ahead here, by 1-1.5 points, I’d say. The last really good poll for Harris was over a week ago.
TEXAS: Trump will win by 5-6 points.
VIRGINIA: Virginia isn’t really a “Swing state” at all now; Harris is probably well ahead by 6-7 points. Some polls show lower leads but they all have her ahead.
WISCONSIN: Nearly a toss up but I think Harris is ahead.
I still think Trump is a slight favorite, based on the evidence. If I’m generous and give WI to Harris then just plugging in the states above and assuming everything else is like 2020, it’s Trump 280, Harris 258 (I have NE-1 for Harris, which seems near certain, but I did not give ME-2 to Trump. Apparently New Mexico is now a solid blue state.
The GOP/Russia propaganda machine is really succeeding at riling people up. Pennsylvania being slightly Trump costs Harris the election, it looks like. But that’s my analysis; note that 538 is still claiming Harris leads, but only by 0.4, a terrifyingly narrow margin.
The thing is that this has been more or less the same for a long time now.
Not if Harris wins Florida.
I know JD Vance killed it in that debate, but I don’t see anything actually altering the polling numbers. Trump seems barely alive and he’s had no new messages or surprises (except more legal troubles), so I think the ups and downs of the polls are just the same old random walk down Wall Street.
As I did the last time the polls were looking perkier (which was, like, literally, two days ago), I think Harris has better fundamentals that the polls aren’t capturing. The GOP is broke as well, and their ground game is famously terrible this year. We Democrats have money coming out of our ears; we are buying ads and knocking on doors like crazy. We are going to win.
As mentioned elsewhere, if there’s been a swing over a week, I’d be interested in where and why that swing took place (and why all the polling swings seem to favor Trump; not that I don’t believe it, necessarily, but knowing why could be the key in countering it).
What’s your source here? Looks more like Harris is up in some, Trump is up in some.
From today’s Hopium Chronicle comments section:
Travis:
Frustrates me that 538 continues to accept all these horrific red wave polls. The data guys just don’t have it in them to call bullshit when it is so clearly bullshit. There is no way on earth they should be letting these firms fuck their averages like this - they’re being used and its bad for everybody. Alternatively, might be time to start some Blue Wave polling if this is how the game is going to be played. You can’t operate in good faith when you’re dealing with the Trumps and Trafalgars of the world and I have no idea why ppl continue to do it. You’re not being “fair” you’re getting absolutely played by the worlds worst pplJarrod Emerson:
I hear you. Maybe we’ll get there at some point in terms of “blue wave polling”. In the meantime, don’t let them exhaust you - that’s exactly what they want. I don’t even bother with 538 myself these days (for the most part) because I know the forecasts will most likely be contaminated by these garbage polls. This community has helped me not be paralyzed with fear. The next time you see a frustrating 538 average or a melodramatic headline about bad polling for us, you might remember the wise phrase that has helped me many times when dealing with the right (and also happens to be the title of a Dee Snider solo album). It goes a little like this… “Never let the bastards wear you down”. Keep calm and campaign on sir!
“Well … are they right?”
