Yep, just some very lame and rather expensive psy-ops. Which won’t matter after this year, as these dickazoids will have no chance at the presidency for the next 20 years.
No they are not. But we’ve discussed that ad nauseum in the polling thread.
He did better than expected, but most pundits are calling it a tie. Vance lied a lot.
But the American public (in the main) LOVES that. They want to be lied to by a slick snake oil salesman who tells them what they want to believe, and gives them permission to hate those who are different. It’s baked into the psyche.
Well sure, and also not if Harris sweeps the Deep South. Conversely, Trump could counter that by winning California.
Harris is losing in Florida, and is very, very, very probably going to lose it.
Well, let’s take these as two points.
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Vice presidential debates never change much. The debate didn’t matter.
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Your impression of what Trump looks like doesn’t matter. You’re one vote. What matters is the evidence as to who’s voting for who and there’s no evidence Trump support is collapsing. It will remain neck and neck until Election Day.
I do not think it is baked in, at least as I understand the phrase. Nativism rather goes in cycles. Alien and Sedition Acts — the Know Nothing Party — the anti-Chinese panic in the 1880’s —1920’s immigration restriction push — they all waxed and then waned.
I am wondering how long the average panic over foreigners lasts. I am impatient for this one to go! And I have no idea it is will wane next month, or if we’ll have four more years.
I’d take off at least two of those “very”s. Yes the forecast is nearly 3:1 against based on polling, but the point made here by others is that the abortion and marijauna referendums on the ballot may make for an unexpected turnout.
Losing PA but winning the EC by winning FL is my second favorite unlikely event! Winning both is my favorite…
A lot of pollsters are going to have egg on their faces when Harris gets 85 million votes and 330+ in the EC.
I know it has been observed before, particularly about Trump supporters, but I think you have a point here.
This post reminded me of an old George Carlin quote concerning Bill Clinton being elected twice.
The American people like their bullshit right up front, where they can get a good, strong whiff of it. Clinton might be full of shit, but at least he lets you know it. Dole tried to hide it, didn’t he? Dole kept saying, “I’m a plain and honest man.” Bullshit! People don’t believe that. What did Clinton say? He said, “Hi, folks! I’m completely full of shit, and how do you like that?” And the people said, “You know something? At least he’s honest!”
The objects of hatred may have waxed and waned, but the hatred of “other” is the central defining point for a large portion of the electorate, and has been for decades/centuries. And they’re thrilled that they no longer have to hide it.
Pollsters would only have egg on their faces if their polls were way off.
…which they are and have consistently been for some time. The numbers we’re being given make no sense and have been manipulated to make Trump look more competitive than he is.
And you have evidence for this… remarkable assertion?
Harris is behind in Florida by 2% according to the latest poll. Harris is ahead is CA by 28. One of these things is not like the other. Penn has Harris ahead by a half point. Harris certainly could lose PA and win Fla.
So, really 2% is not very, very, very probably going to lose it., Especially with abortion and pot on the ballot. You brought up absurdities, I brought up a very real possibility.
Good point. (The current wave is strange, as the economy is great – but it was in the 1920s, too).
And, amen to that.
When every poll points to a close race – they ALL are within a few points of 50-50, in the only seven states that matter – it only takes a minor, normal, ordinary, impossible-to-predict-or-prevent discrepancy* between the polls and the votes to give a LOT of electoral votes to one candidate or the other. None of the polls will have been proven “wrong” if Harris wins 319** ECs (i.e., all seven swings states). 2% off is not “wrong”! (Would you say they are “wrong” if they predict 64% in, say, California, but it turns out to be 66%???) This is a historically close race; the math doesn’t usually work out quite this way, but this time it does. Do the math!
*I won’t use the proper term, “error,” in this case, because some folks are misinterpreting this word due to its associations in colloquial English.
**Where are you getting your extra 11 votes? Florida? If Harris wins Florida, okay, fair point – pollsters who polled there might deserve some scrutiny for being off in that state (and only that state). But maybe not even there – polling has shown Harris to be only behind by 3 to 4 points there, maybe less. The problem with Florida is: 1. It has a large population, so even one point means a lot of people who have to change their minds (or fail to show up); 2. Florida always fuckin’ disappoints.
This thread is not good for my health. With each post I’m alternately reassured and reappalled.
In 2016 I was sure Clinton had this. Then, about a week (?) before the election I just sensed a change. I started a thread here about it
I just… don’t know…
There are things to worry about. But I have a few things to do to get my mind off election for a month. Mostly outdoors. Not much I can personally do at this point. My blog. Politics: a view from the prairie: "I just don't know enough about Kamala Harris..."
The over 330 in the EV is very much with the realm of the possible. Not much of polls being systematically off to have that. 85 million votes would be … a bigger stretch. Biden won 81 to 74 million, a 4.5% margin. With very high turnout, 66%. So even increasing turnout some and having fairly low third party you are getting to something like a 9 point blowout. So yeah, polls being off that much, enough to find her 4 million more votes than Biden got, would be egg on their face.
Pretty unlikely. But I’d love for it to happen. I’ll take a squeaker if it is a win!
This is the issue that overexcited Democrats tend to brush aside when they look at polling and excited declare that Florida or Texas are “in play.” Florida has twice the population of NC or Michigan. Texas, three times as much. A 2-3% deficit in FL and TX is just not comparable to the other swing states.
And generally, campaign resources don’t move voters as percentages, they move them as individuals. The most effective way to GOTV is to target each individual voter you want to motivate to the polls by door knocking, mailers, phone calls, etc. That’s many more voters and much more expense in FL. A campaign’s funds, time and attention are limited, so the choice is whether to focus those resources on states where they can be used most efficiently or go great white whale hunting.