For whatever’s it’s worth. The NYT just came out with a poll showing Trump with a whopping 13 point lead in Florida. Seems hard to believe. But it makes me skeptical that she could win it.
The same poll shows Harris up by 4 points nationwide. Which makes me wonder: if she’s down so badly in Florida, she must be up by a lot in other states.
Discussed in another thread, but Florida (as you might expect) has pretty robust procedures in place to make it easier for voters displaced by a hurricane to still vote and federal law could potentially allow the state to extend voting past election day.
Back when Republicans realized that lying to others was fine, and telling the truth to their own was the way to go?
The only thing less likely than this being true would be saying Trump is not going to win Texas.
Trump will win both of those states.
FWIW, with the new NYT poll included, 538 still give Harris a nearly one in four chance of an upset there.
NYT has made a different methodological decision than other pollsters: they are not recall weighting. The result is a XM smaller Harris lead nationally with less EC advantage for Trump, and bigger leads for him in Florida and Georgia than those who do the recall weighting.
Florida may give that NYT result. Wouldn’t shock. But I also would be only mildly surprised if the referendums on abortion and pot, on the hurricane double header, make polling fairly worthless. One in four seems right to me.
Harris is behind in Florida by the margin of error, Harris is behind in Texas by a LOT. Harris can win Florida.
Right. Possible, not probable.
Highly unlikely. The GOP has 5.3 million registered voters in Florida. The Democrats have 4.3 million registered voters. The Democrats have lost 1 million registered voters since just 2020
The belief Florida will go back to being a blue or at least purple state is wrong. It has become deeply red.
And there are 3,544,576 unaffiliated voters.
The polls are showing that Harris is behind by the margin of error, 2-4%, If it was just party affiliation, she’d be behind 10+ %
Note to mention in 2020 trump only won Florida by less than 4%, so party affiliation is clearly a boguis guide for Florida.
According to today’s NYT poll, she’s behind by 13% in Florida. Just saying.
But their been laying the groundwork for different results. Purging rolls. Intimidation during voting. Pressuring sane election officials to resign and replacing them with extremists that will question the vote results and choose not to certify. If they can’t win, they want to break the election process and then declare because the system is broken, it’s the Dem’s fault so they have to be the winners. Come suits and appeal all the way to the lapdog court at the top. They don’t need evidence, just devoted fortitude.
I’m more cynical. I think Republicans know their days winning votes are limited with their current ideas. Rather than seek better ideas, they are set on gaming the system to create the impression voting is untrustworthy.
Even getting caught cheating themselves just aids that narrative. When enough people don’t trust elections, that’s when they pull the power move to offer all alternative where voting is superceded by something else, and democracy goes away in favor of some sort of “we’ll take care of that running the country and deciding how people should live for you.”
Trump wants that power for himself. The Heritage Foundation wants to make an extreme Christian theocracy. I think Vance is using both of those, but his goal is a different kind of autocracy I’ve been discussing about Curtis Yarvin. But whichever of those were to happen, the result would be equally bad - a loss of democracy to an autocratic system at the whims of a malignant or corrupt leader.
Or, a “night of the long knives” situation, where the various right-wing factions fight each other for whatever remains of the country.
There doesn’t seem to be any swing state now where this will make a difference. Georgia was in question, but it seems to have been addressed fairly substantially. Yes, the GOP has done a lot of gerrymandering, voter suppression, etc., but that has been baked in for a while now.
Which state? Which method? Who will lead the effort? They don’t have anything in place right now. They barely have a ground game in the actual election. I’m not saying some dickhead won’t try something; but I am fairly confident in saying that the fascists are not capable this time of repeating 2020, much less improving on it.
Agreed, although I think this is more of a gut-level understanding than an openly discussed strategy among them.
Trump was obviously doing this. However, here again this can’t be openly discussed across the GOP or even a substantial number of insiders, as they would get caught. What they can do and will continue to do is support legal measures like voter ID laws, etc., for which they can have the ostensible motivation of “maintaining election integrity.”
They’d never get that far. This country is powder keg and would come apart if anyone tried that kind of thing. Same thing with the idea that, if Trump were to be elected, he would actually be able to do what he wants. E.g., if he tried to deport millions of “illegals,” we’d have an instant undoing of the contitutional order, with some states moving to protect them, etc.
To paraphrase the famous quote, when the GOP fully understands that its ideology and platform are not successful in a democracy, they don’t give up on the ideology, they give up on democracy.
Edit to add: found the actual quote.
Whelp, Trump and his team could simply play this clip. TikTok - Make Your Day
When Kamala was asked if she would have done anything differently in the last 4 years than Joe, she replied that nothing comes to mind. I think this will crush her.
Yep. That one little thing. Totally done.
I don’t know about that. I can’t think of anything I’d have had Joe do differently.
He’s done a nice job under difficult circumstances.
Trump is magic, and this election will just bend his way for reasons. Harris has zero chance – everyone knows that, c’mon.
Yup. It’s a done deal!
Joe has done pretty well, outside of the area of communication and promoting his administration and accomplishments.
Btw, I’m sure everyone here has noticed that suddenly Harris is doing a bunch of interviews and kicking ass in them. Whereas Trump ran away like the poltroon he is from his 60 Minutes interview.
I think the thing with Michael Moore is this: he has a different perspective and has access to some different voices. If we believe him, then it seems that the belief that Trump is “toast” is widespread among people more in the know. That, I think, is interesting.
I don’t think Trump is in a very good place for less than 30 days left. Harris is dynamic, perhaps gaining a voter or two. Trump is sad and static; I can’t imagine him winning many hearts and minds with the way he is. Further, all October semi-surprises have gone against him: you have the Jack Smith stuff and the new Bob Woodward book.
We shouldn’t be in the position of worrying about Trump at all, but I think we are doing pretty well, all things considered.
A few months ago, I met an immigrant, granted asylum, who plans to vote for Trump. I explained it here, and it was kindda understandable.
Today I met a second immigrant, from Mexico, who says she is on the fence. This was less understandable. How could she be on the fence when she told me her father is a Mexican politician who explained to her why Trump is bad for Mexico? As best as I can understand, she feels a need to show native born Americans that she patriotically votes for the U.S. national interest, rather than that of Mexico, and that it would be close-minded not to give Trump proposals benefit of doubts — given that some Harris proposals are also mistaken or impractical. It brought tears to my eyes that I tried to hide. Good people, because they are good, give Trump fair-minded consideration he does not deserve.
She also thinks, as someone whose presence in the U.S. was always authorized, that she should not be cavalier regarding immigration laws. However, she never said they should do what she did. And, without prompting, she acknowledged that there are insufficient immigrantion visas and some jobs that Americans really will not do.
I tried saying that Trump is a cruel mercantilist who thinks Mexico and the U.S. play a zero-sum game, while their actual interests are aligned. I hope this fits what her father says.
I suspect she will vote for Harris, but that other family members will not.