Precisely, and well put.
But that’s the thing: just “trying something” (many somethings) undermines many people’s faith in the system, even if few of the shenanigans eventually hold up in court; — plus there’s the constant whining and lies before and after the election (“millions of illegal immigrants voted for my opponent,” etc.)
Exactly. Every individual complaint is just another beat of the drum in the grand Fuck Democracy symphony.
And the really terrible thing is that the people whose faith has been undermined will probably never change their minds and, consequently, the resulting damage to democracy is going to be a permanent thing.
From the summary of a new Ipsos/Reuters poll:
“Trump appeared buoyed by widespread concerns over immigration, currently at its highest level in America in over a century. Some 53% of voters in the poll said they agreed with a statement that “immigrants who are in the country illegally are a danger to public safety,” compared to 41% who disagreed. Voters had been more closely divided on the question in a May Reuters/Ipsos poll, when 45% agreed and 46% disagreed.”
(Note that it’s the “concerns” that are at a bizarre high, not the immigration itself – that has ebbed considerably over the past year).
I wrote a letter to the editor published in my local (swing state) newspaper, refuting the error that immigrants tend to commit more crimes. This really worries me, though. When I canvassed for the Dems over this past week, I talked to about twenty people, and about seven of them said “the border” was their biggest issue – and four of these were convinced that their personal safety was somehow magically threatened by illegal immigration. I wanted to cry.
They forgot to ask if they were concerned about illegals eating their cats and dogs. Geese too, maybe.
“Everybody cheats” therefore it’s a contest of who cheats better. And if your side is the one that stands for Real American Righteous Truth, then of course anything you do is right and necessary, Righteous Truth cannot be subject to majority choice.
Did you tell her no one will know how she votes, only what she tells them? Given that Trump’s policies are horrible for Mexico, horrible for America, horrible for her, and horrible for her family, there’s no doubt to benefit from.
Whereas Harris might have a few impractical or mistaken ideas, doesn’t she deserve the benefit of the doubt on those?
After Trump loses, it will not be a sustainable strategy (aside from the basic, legal voter suppression).
Trump did it once to try to stay in power. It’s not clear that he will do the whole thing over this year. I don’t think he has the energy for it this time. And if he doesn’t do it, no one in the GOP is going to pick up that “strategy” (which was really just a failed, one-time ploy) and run with it. Though there may be individuals who try it in the future, such as Kari Lake.
OK, I just bought a Harris-Walz t-shirt and tacked on a small donation. Money isn’t a problem for the campaign, but I still felt I needed to do it.
I pretty much daily look at National Review to see what the Other Side is saying, but I don’t post a lot of links here from there, since, even though the site is a comparatively reasonable and rational presentation of the Right, it’s still pretty stupid overall. But this article is not stupid:
I think he makes a pertinent point about Harris failing to break with Biden more. I think, “Biden was great, but I’m going to do some things differently,” is a concept that’s pretty easy to sell to both Democrats and convinceable others. Also this:
I somewhat disagree in that I think the “joy” has sold well, especially to the Democratic base, but could also be combined with some stronger messages that address the genuine malaise out there a bit better.
But is there a “vibe shift” at all? I don’t think so. I think that there has been constant worry from the start of the Harris campaign, as evidenced by this thread. OTOH, I would say that there have been daily low-scale vibe shifts: it’s been like riding a roller coaster with only small hills and small dips. It definitely feels that nothing, whether positive or negative for either candidate, affects things much.
My guess, as before, remains that Harris has substantial but not massive support that is not reflected in the polls, and we will have a solid win. I also think that the news for Trump is really bad at this point, and it will slightly erode his support up to election day.
I’ve said it before but it looks more and more like GOTV is going to determine who wins, particularly in PA. I think this is likely to be a Harris/Dem strength so I remain hopeful but it is just so annoyingly close.
Agreed!
Here is a pretty good video that has footage of recent Michael Moore comments:
Remaining swing voters, in my opinion, who break for her, will do so not because of her policies, but because Trump is just too bad of a human being. Watering the contrast down with last-minute flip-flopping would be a mistake.
Helpful analysis - thanks. Yeah, it’s not so much a vibe shift; it’s more a distressing recognition that the positive-vibes thing has reached its limits (perhaps inevitably). It’s distressing not only because we’re left with a coin flip (more or less), but also because so much of the other side’s negative vibes (economy, immigration, who was and is responsible for what…) is bullshit. (Not all of it is bullshit, as you cited from that National Review piece – international wars being the suckiest part, if unfairly attributed to the Biden/Harris administration – but most of it).
Agreed. She’s played it very safe this campaign, and it’s been a good, effective strategy, but not one that can’t be criticized in some respects. I don’t think she should change it at this point, and probably can’t.
Yes. Plus, it’s fear-based and not healthy for the country or democracy, even if it’s true. The fact that it is mostly BS, as you say, makes it maximally unhealthy.
Seeing this posted, over and over again, is one of the reasons he may win. If you want Harris to win, please stop.
Wait, wait. You’re an atheist-materialist, right? Aren’t you guys not supposed to believe in jinxes?!
The “No need to worry-Trump will obviously lose” mantra stopped being funny a long time ago.
Well, I ain’t saying that or implying that. And I have affirmed the opposite of that many times in this thread.