With 24 days until election day, according to 538, she’s 3.1% underwater in the three largest sunbelt swing states (AZ, GA, NC), and only up by 1.9% in the industrial belt swing states (MI, PA, WI)
Union voters are falling away from Harris/Walz. “Especially concerning for Democrats is that Harris isn’t even polling as well as Hillary Clinton did in 2016 among union voters. Notably, Clinton ended up losing two key states, Michigan and Pennsylvania, where unions represent more than 14 percent of the workforce. The loss of those two traditionally Democratic-leaning states along with Wisconsin propelled Donald Trump to the White House. Clinton led Trump among labor voters by 12 points eight years ago, while Harris now leads Trump by only 9 points, according to polling data aggregated by CNN.” https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4916950-harris-lacks-traction-union-voters/
Trump is holding more campaign events than Harris. Note: the writers at 538 claim that this doesn’t indicate anything electorially, but it does show Trump is not just sitting around or golfing in the final weeks of the campaign. Trump is holding more campaign events than Harris - ABC News
Just thought instead of constantly handwaving this crisis away with links from bloggers explaining how much Harris is actually crushing Trump, we should have a list of stories showing otherwise.
Yeah, it is (in our and others’ minds) the battle of the stats at this point. I could add some negative bits and pieces to the ones you listed, and I could add some positive ones I haven’t talked about.
My logic at this point is this: It all comes down to whether Harris has hidden support that isn’t reflected in the polls (superior GOTV organization, superior enthusiasm, new registrations, etc., and perhaps even incorrectly weighted polls). If she does, then she will win, perhaps substantially. If she does not, then it will be a squeaker that either candidate can win, with the caveat that Harris gets to 270 with the poll numbers taken at face value (i.e., the polls would have to break against her in order for her to lose).
What I don’t think is the case is that Trump has hidden support and will outperform his polling numbers. Nor do I think he is in any kind of upward trajectory at this point. He is barely hanging on to what he’s got.
This election gives me an Alabama vs. Clemson January 2019 vibe. The vibe where, during the long buildup leading up to the actual contest, the media and everyone keeps hyping it up as a battle of equals, talking about how what a closely fought, narrow battle it will be…and it ends up being nothing of the sort. Not close. In fact, it becomes anticlimactic.
To me within 2 is tossup. 538 agrees with each as tossup. AZ they rate 57/43; GA 55/45; and NC 55/45 too. All coin flips. Not independent ones though. 3 would be more scary.
There very likely will be some significant systemic error shifting most numbers two or three one way or the other. No hard data way to know which direction it is going to be.
Your other points?
An article that hyperventilates over a poll’s subgroups (small n) is dismissible. Come back with pooled data maybe. I can buy the NYT Sienna 11 point overall deficit same as HRC had. It is the baseline. Will these casual misogynists turn out much? We will see. But I don’t think there is much more to done to win them.
Yes it would be nice to be stronger with Union voters.
The lack of support from Arab voters is regrettable. It is however baked into the current MI polling. Mostly I’ve seen is polls that have Stein as their choice. Will they come home? If not then the polls are no worse than they are now, which has her favored in toss up range. No question that Michigan is not a sure thing. Bibi is doing his worst to kneecap her.
Bottom line remains: polling is close. The unknowns likely will break significantly one way or the other. I’m personally convinced of one way. Those stories are more convincing to me. Might be wrong.
Harris has a 49% - 46% lead in the smoothed polling averages, which translates to a 52% chance of victory, not that different from the past month. Race remains 50-50. Harris has 3:1 odds of winning the popular vote, while Trump has a 25% chance of that.
Some doubts can be quantified. Silver’s model assumes that polls will favor one of the two candidates, though we don’t know which one yet. So those dubious about polling need to show how they favor Republicans more than they did in 2022. Because pollsters recalibrate to adjust for past errors.
Brad DeLong continues his open season on journmalism:
Can one reason with these people? Pundits misinform with overhyped statistical noise, while the truthful message of the “Silver Bulletin” is that little has changed and we still have insufficient reason to claim any useful knowledge about what is going on in this election…
Hype-driven takes from figures like Dan Pfeiffer and Nate Cohn serve only to muddle the waters. Pfeiffer’s claims about Harris’s gains in recent polls lack a solid foundation, based on small sample sizes and unreflective voter opinions. Cohn’s defenses of his Florida poll data showing Trump leading in that state by an improbably large margin raise even more questions. It is highly likely that both pundits are falsely presenting statistical noise as meaningful information. And so Silver’s work as a polling aggregator remains indispensable.
I volunteer. If Harris wins hurray. If Trump wins, well at least I tried and the fight for democracy doesn’t end. My middle aged grandfather left a thriving law practice to fight in WWII: I can jolly well textbank and donate dineros to the Dems. My fight has been longer, but far far far far far less intense.
At some point, I think they kind of do. If Trump is elected and his supporters start complaining about the leopards eating their faces it’s going to be very difficult for me to bite my tongue to stop from telling them to piss off with their complaints.
The people who buy generators, thinking that they will be reimbursed, are not necessarily his supporters. Some of them may have a genuine intellectual disability.
Trump scores points in CO (continued) Link goes to USA Today
Inside the rally: pictures of Venezuelan migrant gangs.
Trump: “I will rescue Aurora and every town that has been invaded and conquered,” Trump told the crowd. "We will put these vicious and bloodthirsty criminals in jail or kick them out of our country. Immigration takes center stage at Trump's Colo. rally: 3 takeaways
