+3 for Harris in PA on the latest NYTimes poll is probably the best bit of polling news she has had in a while. OTOH some weak numbers in WI and MI with Harris behind or tied in quality polls from Emerson and Quinnipiac. The bottom line is the election is a toss-up with at best a slim edge for Harris.
In non-polling news the Democrats have unleashed their big weapons with Obama and Bill Clinton hitting the campaign trail. In general there is little question that Harris has much better surrogates than Trump. She also has a big advantage in money and organization.That might give you a sliver of hope that Harris will outperform her polls and get the clear win.
I was leafing through a book on American voters. We do have to give Trump credit for his giant strawman. Reagan got the current hatred of the federal government going. But then it was a sort of “so what?” situation. The issue has to go over some threshold for them to vote. The low info low income voter did not really get involved in policy, or voting. The brilliant move was to make migrants and Democrats the cause of their misery. Add to that fear of migrants as criminals and the soup was ready.
They are grown-ass adults with agency, not keepers, and are responsible for their own actions. The additional fact that they are destroying my country and everything it stood for, at least in theory, makes it impossible for me to feel the slightest bit of sorrow what befalls them.
I’ll go with a fourth possibility. He’s getting tired of speaking to the same slack-jawed idiots that follow him like deadheads from one rally to the next. He wants to rant in front of some fresh faces (and wallets).
But them suffering for doing ill-advised things like this may be the only way to get through to them. The MAGA nation are brainwashed. They need to come back to reality for the country’s sake. If it takes some real-world consequences to enlighten them, maybe it’s for the best. Nothing else is working.
They’ve been sold the flattery that They are the Real Righteous People–with the logical corollary that Nothing is Ever Their Fault. It’s always someone else’s fault. And the flatterers haven’t been reluctant to offer their dupes scapegoats.
Anything bad that happens to the eager consumers of this flattery is the Fault of the Other. The Scapegoat. (Black or brown people; women; gays; experts; Democrats—whatever).
If they suffer, they will not learn. They will just hate harder.
A key quote:
“In a way, Democrats are suffering the cost of having held the presidency for 12 of the last 16 difficult years. The period began with high hopes, most of all for Black voters. Today, voters remain deeply dissatisfied with the state of the country and the economy. Great expectations weren’t met.”
(As for the focus on “fun,” do I detect a whiff of racism there, on Nate Cohn’s part? Maybe not, but it seems he’s saying “young black men are complete idiots.”)
Here is what I’ve realized, having just spent some time with MAGA relatives:
Trump can win because it is so easy for people (not just MAGA) to immerse themselves in what they want to hear. None of them were aware of half the things Trump has said and done. I was met with outright dismissal of Trump’s sending testing equipment to Putin, despite the fact that the Kremlin has confirmed it.
Trump can win because there’s no such thing as news and truth anymore. I know this isn’t a revelation, but I think it’s the simple answer to “How can Donald Trump win at this point?”
I’d sure like to know what great expectations they have for a Trump victory.
Back in 2016, I was talking to some interns at work about the election explaining to them that this wasn’t normal. In 2024 I have to acknowledge that normal has changed. Cohn argues that that for many young Black & Hispanic voters Trump is normal and I think he’s right. (It’s likely true for young white voters as well, but this article isn’t focused on them.) Trump has been looming large over politics for as long as some of these kids have been half paying attention to the news. If you’re a 25 year old voter this is just politics as usual.
I know we’ve discussed here on the boards that many MAGA disciples like Trump because he’s entertaining which is another way of saying he’s fun. They’ve elected a reality television star and love it. Those who attend MAGA rallies love hearing Trump and others say outrageous things. It’s a big show to them.
What concerns me most are the 20% of Black and 40% of Hispanic voters who say we’re taking Trump’s words “too seriously.” For those of us who remember being told that in 2016, those voters sound like idiots. If someone speaks lies about entire groups of people in order to dehumanize them then you take that shit seriously.
One of the features of the under developed world is that people live their lives in a constant state of chaos, they lurch from crisis to crisis and have little control over their own fates. Trump rides that wave of chaos, Republicans dismantle our government’s ability to respond to events like natural disasters and gun crime and then they blame Democrats for the pain the GOP has created. This chaos is America’s new normal.
This is emblematic of what I don’t get about Trump supporters. This is a man who has explicitly and systematically blamed Muslims for ruining the U.S.–why is he getting a single Arab/Muslim vote?