The point is that phrasing is as
is accurate but a bit misleading. MC has had her leading by 5 fairly consistently. They are biased that direction relative to other pollsters. They’ve never had her 6, so her stable 5 is her highest yet, but there is no evidence of momentum there.
That’s certainly the thinking of the Harris campaign based on the grim subject lines of their emails and texts.
Yeah, I wasn’t putting too much stock in it. But the point was that any “momentum” for either side is simply a matter of perception (and there are good polls for our side, not just bad). The fundamentals haven’t changed.
I skipped the last week-ish of this thread = 200+ posts. So pardon if this is (recently) repetitive.
As to Florida perhaps being winnable for Harris. …
Here in the Greater Miami metroblob (Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach Counties) the farther north you go the more it looks like the rest of urban / suburban USA, both working class and wealthy class, both white and African American. The farther south you go the more it looks like a city in Latin America or the Caribbean with a far more nuanced ethnic mixture that is, on average, a lot less white than a typical US big city & 'burbs.
Up in Palm Beach County there are lots of trump ads on the video billboards along the freeway. And zero Harris ads. Which I’ve mentioned a time or two upthread. All of the typical trump banner format of his name in big bold and some catchy reactionary slogan down below all in red & white on a blue background.
What I have now noticed is that they all say “Paid for by [some guy’s full name].” IOW, entities that are not the R party or the trump campaign are producing and paying for look-alike pro-trump advertising.
With the result that any sort of spending comparison that any of us want to make about “this campaign is spending $X in FL and that campaign is spending $Y”, may be completely misstating the relative spend by all money sources.
It is sort of the same here in Phoenix metro. There are darn few Harris signs and none at all for Trump save some homemade ones for Trump. When I say homemade I mean it literally. They are hand-painted text on a colored background and not lettered by professionals.
TV ads are a different matter. Both campaigns are heavily hitting the airwaves.
Well, I guess we’ll just have to admit that Trump will win the Texas EV’s
I didn’t really notice it until I saw in this thread but the lack of Trump lawn signs (suburban Houston) is truly shocking. They were ubiquitous 4 years ago but nary a one in sight now.
I’ve seen a whopping total of one generic sign to vote Republican.
Not that I think the state is going to flip, but there’s a lot more holding of noses and possibly plans just to skip voting this time around.
There’s only two houses (the traitor houses, I call them) with trump signs in our neighborhood. Both are plastered with flags and banners and signs. Last go-around, there were many, many more.
I’ve seen various posts that both parties are displaying far fewer lawn signs .
I wonder if it’s just a matter of fashion and style. Maybe lawn signs are just old-fashioned and passe?
There was a time when lapel buttons were the huge fashion during campaigns. (From “I like Ike” thru the end of the 1970’s, say). Then suddenly, nobody was wearing political buttons.
.
It’s possible they’ve fallen out of favor, but it happened so quickly. There were folks in my area who kept their Trump 2020 signs up through 2022. It might also depend on where we are. I saw a lot of Trump signs in Colorado and Oklahoma within the last three weeks. Saw a good amount of Harris signs in Colorado as well.
Anecdotally, I’ve heard that many campaigns would love to do away with yard signs. They’re relatively expensive for what you get and there’s little evidence that they have much if any impact. But the campaigns don’t want to upset their supporters who want them, so they still have to make them.
It is like trying to stop pull-tab collectors.
There are tons of lawn signs in my neighborhood — but mostly for local positions, such as mayor, city council, and school board. These are all nominally non-partisan positions. Oddly, the only partisan position lawn signs I see are for the Republican candidate for congress, who has zero chance in this very blue district.
Fear not! There are plenty of Trump lawn signs in my neck of rural West Michigan!
(Harris signs too the closer you get to the cities.)
No Trump signs in my immediate neighborhood (red part of a blue part of a red state). A few signs for local Republican politicians and a bunch of No on 3! signs (Prop 3 is the Missouri abortion amendment; a yes vote enshrines abortion access in the state constitution). One Harris sign.
We just moved here so I have no basis for comparison.
Public political statements are more risky and provocative in an environment of extreme polarity. it feels funny even at a family gathering.
We tried to avoid it specifically at our reunion because the family is split. Still had one old fart who got his feelings hurt we asked him not to talk Trump. Caused an ugly loud moment. Things eventually smoothed over, but we know where the lines are drawn.
I live in a suburb of St Louis which is red, but slowly turning a bit purple. Yesterday I saw a No on
3 sign and right next to it was a Yes on 3. This was on a busy intersection. My very pro life neighbor has a No on 3 sign, too. If I drive just 15 miles into the east, I see more and more Kamala signs and Yes on 3s. Out here, I have seen a couple, and also some Trumps but it seems about equal. Which is why I think this area is about to turn purple.
I’m near Kerth and Butler Hill. Butler Hill seems to be a dividing line; north of Butler Hill there are a lot of Yes on 3 signs, south it’s all No.
The only Trump sign I’ve seen near me is on Butler Hill (on the south side of the road).
Yeah, in Evansville, I don’t see many signs for a presidential candidate but a significant number for local pols. The few Harris and Trump signs seem about evenly split.