Trump complaining about rigged elections is not some sort of preemptive acknowledgement of an expected loss. It’s a rhetorical line that serves him either way. If the election goes against him, it was fake and illegitimate. If he wins, then he marshaled his devoted followers to beat the attempted rigging. Don’t overthink it.
Yes, and the “please pretend to fellate the microphone” vote was already going to trump anyway.
Well, he is not wrong that this line is what his followers believe. “I feel something’s this way. It’s got to be. But my parents, my teachers, my bosses kept telling me not to say it because it’s rude. Well, HE gets me! Who cares if he rants, the point is finally WE can rant and not be shut up!”
How grand of him to change stories just a week before the election when all of the anti-electoral grievance-mongering has already worked its magic. If he had only broadcast this before the “uncommitted” movement’s position was set in stone, it might have helped. But at least he can’t be blamed for a bad outcome now.
The odds are tighter than I care to see, perhaps too small for daylight to pass, but how are you arriving at well over 50%? A Trump decisive lead is the only situation that I can not see, it’s a squeaker at most.
I would say Electoral College bias, for starters. The Dem candidate has to swing more and harder than the Rep does. And after 2020 more of that election’s Biden states lost EVs, and more Trump states gained, than otherwise.
Let’s hope many of the idiots who threaten to vote for Trump because he’s “entertaining” will be so busy entertaining themselves with YouTube shorts (or internet porn, or whatever crap they “entertain” themselves with these days), that they’ll neglect to actually get out and vote.
So, just saw this on CNN. I know Iowa isn’t going for Harris, but how is it even possible that a poll could show Harris leading there?
I take it as a preemptive indication that if he does lose, we can expect all sorts of unpleasantness again, as we saw in 2020 and as was already planned in 2016.
Trump has been doing this his whole LIFE. As a businessman it was always his approach to cheat others and claim he was being cheated.
And he’s managed to get most of the Republican Party to go along with it. It’s an evil but possible decisive strategy. If Harris wins a thin EV margin, there’s not a doubt in my mind a Republican-controlled state she wins will try to change the results.
The pathetic little 2020 things where a dozen disaffected Trumpists gathered in a few parking lots to put together “alternative electoral votes” to send to Congress? That was a dress rehearsal, folks.
Trump is an experienced cheater. He’s trying to win outright, and he well may. But he’s got a Plan B.
The simple and likely explanation is that it’s just wrong. Selzer has a good track record, but this is one poll that only got 808 responses.
The poll may well be wrong (outlier),but one explanation I’ve heard is that Iowa just recently passed some draconian abortion laws, and the women of the state are PISSED, and are blaming Trump.
He also has the - apologies - trump card to play, as long as one state could swing the outcome. The only question is whether two of Roberts, Kavanaugh and Barrett will go along with it.
The court showed in 2000 they would put their thumb on the scales over one close state, but in 2020 they wouldn’t stick their necks out that far when it took three states. Would they do it for two? I really don’t want to find out.
So, another ~ 1000 of his supporters sent to prison. May be ‘plan B’.
I sure hope we are ready.
The county I work for is getting ready by having police at polling places. But we are blue, so shouldn’t be a problem. Ya never know about these yahoos though.
We can vote by mail (already did myself) but there are a number of places to vote. I worry for my colleagues that have to manage this.
We’ll see, but clearly the Supreme Court’s Trump wing has abandoned all pretense of real jurisprudence and, given the opportunity, will cheerfully choose the GOP over the republic.
I just hope that Trump’s Plan B serves to terminate his candidacy.
There is a fair amount of discussion about this poll in the “Is polling broken?” thread.
So on the one hand Selzer has a long history of putting out polls that look like crazy outliers only to be right when the votes get counted. On the other, yeah it is just one poll. Emerson says a very different number and neither Silver nor 538 are moving Iowa to tossup on even her one poll.
But the big deal is if she is catching something that other pollsters, with their best guesses as to what the voting electorate will look like, are missing: that white rural voters, led by pissed off women, are coming out for Harris more than the models are allowing for.
IF she is right, the question is if it is only true for rural white Iowa or also true in rural WI, MI, PA …
Which is not how Trump wins.
Might terminate some of his MAGA followers if he tries the same thing again. The National Guard needs to be ready.
It’s also the case that Trump’s tariffs hurt Iowa farmers particularly hard.
It was so bad he had to bail them out. And, as I understand it, his attempt to mollify the impact of his trade wars was pretty pathetic
Many elections are going to have one surprise state outcome that nobody saw coming - whether it was Indiana going to Obama in 2008, WI-MI-PA going to Trump in 2016, or Georgia going to Biden in 2020.
Iowa going to Harris is going to be the surprise state of this election.