Trump’s odds in the betting market have changed a lot due to this:
Election prediction markets tilted heavily towards Vice President Kamala Harris overnight after a bombshell poll released Saturday showed her ahead of former President Donald Trump in Iowa.
A Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll found the Democratic nominee three points up on her GOP opponent, 47% to 44%, among likely voters.
The survey was conducted by the highly regarded pollster Ann Selzer, who has a long track record of producing results that uncannily mirror final election tallies.
Oooh…another one! I hate being hopeful after 2016 and the mess of 2020 but seems good news if you support Harris:
Former President Donald Trump is seeing support from Black voters decrease just days before Election Day, a poll published on Sunday shows.
According to the final national NBC News poll of the 2024 presidential campaign, Trump, the GOP presidential nominee, is only earning 9 percent of Black support, lower than the 12 percent he received during the 2020 presidential election when he ran against Joe Biden.
Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, leads Black voters with 87 percent, NBC News’ poll shows.
The poll, with a sample of 1,001 registered voters, was conducted between October 30 to November 2 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
I find the whole “betting markets are reality because real money is at stake” to be incredibly tiresome for a broad number of reasons. Here we can see the one glaring weakness that the predictive value only emerges at the last minute, because new information is being developed all the time.
But I have to admit that it does a pretty good job of reflecting the accuracy and import of these bits of information as they emerge. This morning I didn’t know how real the Iowa news was, and whether it mattered at all. Now the betting market is showing us that people are risking money on the assumption that it’s real and it matters. So I do appreciate that much about it.
I have lost track of where it was posted (here on the SDMB) that the betting markets are clearly manipulated. There was a huge (yuge?) divergence a few weeks back when one big bet was put down. It seemed more a scheme to manipulate the election rather than a real belief it was a money-making bet.
Returning to this with the Selzer Iowa poll, and this interview with Selzer in mind:
I suspect older white rural Georgian women are not TOO different than those in Iowa. Her result was driven in particular by older women who broke two to one to Harris.
As has been stated many times, Selzer could just be way off here, but if she is as right as she usually is then those older women voting may be good news for Harris after all, Republican registration or otherwise.
Look at how the polls and endorsements have shifted over the last week. The mask-off display of racism at that rally, and Trump’s constitutional inability to apologize or disavow it, was the last straw for a lot of people and it’s why undecideds are going to break for Harris.
The final days of this campaign are going to be studied in the future as an example of why message discipline is so important.
