How can Donald Trump win at this point?

Nicky Jam did, for one.

I’m seeing a real final push from the Harris side. Ads following the local football game, (Harris/Walz) signs have just popped up in neighbor’s yards. I haven’t seen any Trump signs. I’m in north Florida.

I’m still too cynical about the U.S. and its fundamentally broken, poisonous politics to allow myself to feel hopeful that Trump will go down in well-deserved flames, but I’ll say again what I’ve said before: Harris has run a nearly flawless textbook campaign under extraordinary circumstances, and win or lose it will be held up as a model for future study.

I used to think nobody likes cheaters, but now we have stacked courts and state politics pushing quasi-cheating, or plain cheating or ad hoc unchallenged shenanigans. It’s so close. I don’t think wanting Trumpers to go away in total humiliation works, I would love it, but not gonna happen. Probably will want some concessions.
I’m still trying to figure out what happened after Jan 6, when L Graham et al, were saying how toxic things have become… then completely changed their tune around Jan 10th or whenever to feed the monster. Mind boggling

I had a reason to be back in my old NH neighborhood over the weekend. I was there for 2016 (but not 2020) when NH just barely went Clinton. At that time it was either a Trump sign or no sign. On Saturday there were HUGE numbers of Harris signs. Still a fair number of Trump signs, but the Harris signs were morer and biglier.

Indeed. Astounding breach of their oaths to the Constitution. They’re all “America-hating fucksticks,” int he words of Doper kaylasdad99.

But, in the end, you have to put most of the blame on the fascist-adoring, infantile, willfully ignorant voters that scared Graham et al. into their acts of treason.

On January 6, Graham’s terror caused him to have a moment of clarity and honesty. A few days later, he realized that if he wanted to stay in the senate and not be primaried, he’d have to sell the lie. Graham has spent his life living a lie, so it comes easily to him.

It sounds like we’re setting up to again falsely blame Sanders for Democrats’ failures.

The administration’s unlimited support for Bibi, including supplying weapons, is appalling and Sanders is right to draw attention to it. But also politically; Democrats simply haven’t played this well. Clearly the goal was to not alienate people with either sympathies, and they’ve failed. They have acted as though Palestinian protestors have no legitimate grievance (not even given them a chance to air their grievances), and Harris has given no signal that anything will change.
If they lose a lot of the Muslim vote they have no-one to blame but themselves.

To be fair to @LSLGuy, it surprised the hell out of me, too, that Fox News covered this story. Must have been an accidental slip, though, for which someone was probably fired, because the related links are absolutely true to form. One of them that I followed, for instance, trumpets the fact that early voting in rural Georgia is hitting record levels, and rural Georgia is predominantly pro-Trump! Yay Trump!

So what? That’s like announcing: water discovered to be wet! What is far more interesting, and so typical of Fox News, is the pair of illustrations of Trump and Harris in that totally superficial article about Georgia voting, They must have scoured hundreds of thousands of images to find the ones that suited their purposes: an extremely rare photo of Trump without his usual hateful scowl, looking almost normal, and an odd photo of Harris – who is almost always smiling – with an evil snarling expression. Must be just coincidence, just some photos that happened to be available, amirite? :roll_eyes:

This is simply false. It’s not hard to find Harris hearing out their grievances and validating them. For example here’s an Al-Jazeera article from August 2024

Now go ahead and show us the ratchet-effect, tell us that the above is meaningless unless she does this one additional step, which will then be declared inadequate unless the next demand is met, and so on, and so on, ad infinitum.

These people have given every reason why they deserve to be ignored permanently if Dems win in spite of them. That’s why they’re scrambling to backtrack now that the Dem victory is looking more likely.

It is easy to point to the MSG rally and say it is the reason the polls shifted against Trump. Now explain why the month before that the polls were shifting towards Trump? because there is literally nothing that would explain that. The polls are simply trying to get as close as possible right before the election, we are not seeing any back and forth movement of voters. Voters are too polarized to have those type of short term swings any more.

Bear in mind, there is a special situation in Iowa this year. Just this past July, the state legislature enacted a very strict abortion ban. So it’s fresh in the mind of voters.

It was even fresher in the previous poll that had Trump up by 4 over Harris.

I have to agree with this. I strongly doubt it was ever possible to avoid angering at least one side, but they’ve obviously failed at their attempt to please both.

As expected, really; the usual result of any attempt to make both sides of a strong dispute happy is to make both angry.

No, her previous poll was in June and the new law is from July.

The June poll was Biden v Trump with Trump up 18. The first Harris poll was after she became the candidate, in September, with her down by 4. To many cries of “nah.” After the law was passed.

I don’t appreciate this preemptive accusation.

Especially when it’s a bit of a rhetorical trick; that if I don’t accept the example given then I must be arguing in bad faith.
The reality is, I hadn’t heard that particular line, and it’s good to hear. It’s not nothing. But it is a pretty weak platitude at the same time as continuing to supply the weapons and, like I say, not give a hearing e.g. let someone speak on this topic.

What are you talking about the next demand ad infinitum? What concessions do you think the protestors have achieved?

That’s the ratchet in action. There’s no point where these activists will let up on their rhetoric. They’re calling her “Genocide Kamala” when the VP is prevented by statute from forging her own foreign policy. She makes statements of condemnation, now they want to hijack her convention. They won’t relent when the arms shipments stop, they won’t relent when there’s a ceasefire, they won’t relent until Israel is dissolved, which we know because of their repeated insistence to continue “from the river to the sea”.

That’s not to say I don’t hope Harris will forge ahead with her own humanitarian plan and peace plan. But hopefully she’s seen that the activists should be ignored because working with them is nothing but downside.

“Look what they made me do! And it’s all the Democrats’ fault for stirring them up so!”

:roll_eyes:

Back when dinosaurs roamed the earth and large enough cities had two newspapers I noticed where, say, one supported the President on some issue and the other did not, they’d both run the same AP or UPI story of him making some speech but the photo on one would be him with a regular expression and the other he looks like a doofus.

I wondered if the wire services offered up two photos of such stories.

Since this thread began I may have given dozens of reasons Trump can win. My number final reason is the international trend where incumbent parties lose.

Here a new link on this:

Keir Starmer’s record rapid popularity collapse iis another sign that anti-incumbent fever still rages.

P.S. Since the moderators have been letting us also put reasons why Harris could win in this thread, my number one reason on that side is J. Ann Selzer’s poll showing Iowa going for Harris (with two Iowa House seats flipping from R to D). Unfortunately, that is not as good of a prognostication reason as 20 out of the last 21 Latin American elections going to a non-incumbent.