This moderator was on the cusp of moderating the Harris discussion in this thread, and your post pushes it over the edge. You and others know to discuss Harris matters in Harris threads and Trump matters in Trump threads. To link a thread:
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I would guess that Biden and/or his top State and National Security people could inform you of a number of incidents of them declining to provide “unlimited” support for Netanyahu. (I’m no expert on this topic but I do feel confident that the Biden Administration doesn’t see “unlimited” as a fair characterization.)
This part I’ll grant you, though I’d challenge anyone to describe how they’d make both sides happy. I don’t think that’s possible. As @HMS_Irruncible wrote:
This seems inarguable to me. Though I believe there are some who want ‘just a cease fire,’ I’d suspect they are but a tiny fraction of the whole, who hope for (and may demand) more.
This seems to me to be another unanswerable problem with the American pro-Palestinian/Uncommitted movement. It lacks fairness as well as practicality. A vote isn’t a message. It’s a tool you can use to get as close as possible to what you want. And Trump’s election is NOT what the Uncommitted Movement people actually want.
As for ‘how Trump can win’—he can win if enough people mistake their vote for A Message.
Yes, and of course the presence of third-party candidates helps with that ‘mistake your vote for a message’ phenomenon. Just as in 2016, Jill Stein is ready and willing to bring down democracy. Vlad will be so proud!
Poor Donald, having to be grateful to Jill Stein. (Oh, who am I kidding—he probably didn’t even send her a card after Election Day 2016…)
All the election models seem to have converged to around 50-50; as if the election gods always willed it that way. Interestingly Polymarket has diverged a bit in the last couple of days with Trump now at 61%.
My subjective sense is that it is a coin-toss with a small edge for Harris. A couple of weeks ago I thought Trump had the edge and a couple of weeks before that Harris.
Reasons for Harris:
Anecdotal reports of a better ground game
Approval ratings a few points ahead of Trump
The Puerto Rico garbage story seems to have broken through unlike almost everything else
That Selzer poll !
Ultimately it’s not much and all of it could overwhelmed by pollsters modestly undercounting Trump voters. Nobody knows anything till the counting starts and perhaps not for a few days even then.
Using the previous elections as a benchmark, Trump ain’t winning this one, he’s not winning over independent voters this time round and his brand is literally toxic, which means another four years of the professional managerial class smugly proclaiming how ‘Girlbosses’ Won it and no real introspection as to how and why Trumps presidency came about in the first place (GFC 2007-8)
That doesn’t sound very believable. More likely we’d get another four years talk about “bipartisanship”, “the norms” and the need to submit to the Republicans no matter the cost.
Bi-partisanship and the norms is code for not trying to open up uncomfortable truths in respects to how the crisis of '07 has negatively reverberated across large swathes of the US working class and how that’s fuelling resentment, and relying heavily on the minority vote to raise their advantage rather than commit to any structural change.
< Republican > perhaps if we fuck over the working class MORE and give more tax breaks to the ultra wealthy, that will solve the problem! As long as we can blame it all on those dirty immigrants!
Not looking great for Harris right now. Any hope of a comfortable win seems to be gone. It’s going to boil down to PA, MI and WI and right now Trump seems to have the edge in PA though there are still a lot of votes left. If Harris wins it will probably be by the skin of her teeth with a margin of a few tenths of a point.
