We knew how when Biden was the candidate: Biden was checked out and down in the polls. Trump was probably going to win. Maybe the polls were wrong and Biden could barely win. But Biden wasn’t doing anything to change the dynamic. Then came the debate, and he was definitely going to lose.
So, now that none of that is the case, I think it’s fair to ask how Trump can win. If Trump were still up in the polls and the Harris campaign were having trouble getting the engine started, I wouldn’t be asking this question.
This is what gives me hope. Even at this late date, there’s still a few votes slipping away from him. Every day the Democrats keep the pressure on him adds a few more to that total.
Don’t be that guy who celebrates before crossing the finish line and gets passed by the guy in second place.
Cenk Uygur of the Young Turks put out a video today saying that, now that Harris has picked Walz, she was definitely going to win. He was overjoyed. So you are not alone in that sentiment.
Voters love confidence. Kamala needs to go about publicly guaranteeing victory every chance she gets. It will get under Trump’s skin and enrage him even more into worse and worse comments.
But anyhow, back to the OP, the only way Trump can win is to do blatant vote rigging nationwide at this point, and he can’t.
Hold on to that good feeling but this is FAR from over. Complacency will kill us.
How can he win? A combination of 1) the inherent electoral college advantage to republicans, 2) voter suppression, and 3) cheating (election deniers have been elected as vote certifiers in numerous battleground regions).
This needs to be a blowout. Vote as if we’re 20 points behind. Vote as if our lives depend on it. Because they do.
By this point, Trump’s best hope may be to agree (behind the scenes) to drop out of the race for “health reasons” in return for Kamala going FBI-lenient on him after she wins the presidency.
I think you are right. I don’t see those things happening at this point. One big thing in our favor is, ironically, the late but very solid start. I think the Clinton campaign had a bit less enthusiasm than Harris’s (hard to measure) and was flagging a bit at the end, whereas Trump was accelerating until the finish.
Actually, Anthony Scaramucci, Trump’s former communications man, was something just like this in a video a couple days ago. He suggested that Trump might drop out if he can get a deal not to go to prison from the various authorities.
I agree that we need to put a stake through its heart and garlic in its mouth so that they just won’t have the lifeforce to try to rig it after it’s over.
There could be any number of events - stock market plunge, Mideast/Ukraine/China - stuff way out of Kamala’s control, but enough to convince the no-nothings that “this happened on the Dems’ watch. We need a strongman like TFG to fix it!” Utter BS, but unknowns can be scary.
I agree with all who have said the top Dems oughta be cancelling all vacation between now and November. Pedal to the metal - all hands on deck!
I rate them “highly unlikely” as well, but highly unlikely has been the theme for this last whole month.
I mean, if on July 4th, I’d offered you a bet that Trump would narrowly avoid assassination, then Biden would drop out, then Harris would surge with massive enthusiasm and record fund raising, and then she’d pick a VP with serious cross-demographic appeal, what odds would you have given me?
What can happen is that a bunch of ill informed or misinformed voters beleive the Fox News Propaganda that the Economy is in shambles, and crime is overwhelming due to Biden’s open border policy, can decide that change in necessary and Trump is what is needed.
If we lived in a rational world Trump wouldn’t stand a chance, but as it is, the polls show a very tight race. Harris’ nomination injected some very much needed enthusiasm in a dejected Democratic base, but its no guarantee.
The Orange Felon is seeing his poll numbers falling and the prospect of prison looming. Of course he’s becoming unhinged – think Hitler in his final days in the bunker. I’m sure there will be lots more desperate lunacy to come if Harris-Walz starts dominating.
Simple math. He can win if he can get a few more people to come out and vote for him in a few key states. Or something happens to keep certain demographics from coming out for Harris. It’s still very close and will remain very close until the end.
In my defense, I do not believe that this is the best of all possible worlds.
But this is the starting point from which Harris has sprinted. Can Trump and Fox cause this message to penetrate further at this juncture?
This is, if I interpret correctly, the “Trump limps over the finish line with current momentum” scenario. I don’t find it completely implausible. I just wonder if there is any other plausible scenario at this point.
