Regarding optimism, here’s a hypothetical scenario in which my current level of optimism would not be warranted:
I think this is actually more realistic than what’s actually happened! And yeah, if I were saying, “Harris is definitely going to win!” just because she seemed to be catching up, then I think some of the finger-wagging would be more appropriate.
But that ain’t it. Instead, she’s surging and Trump is drowning. She’s killing it.
Welcome to the thread! 
I wouldn’t say I was “confidant” in 2016. I simply took it as a truism, based on everything I was seeing in the media, that Hillary was going to win.
I am much more skeptical now.
I think Harris is in a much, much different position. Ceteris paribus, she is going to win. But I’m not counting on the ceteris paribus, if that makes sense.
Literally. I hope Trump doesn’t die before the election. Any candidate, any old sack of dog turds will do better than Trump is doing right now. If Trump’s curse is to be a political Sisyphus who always runs and always loses, I hope the son of a bitch lives forever.
It makes total sense. Harris shook up the race because swing/uncertain voters’s ideas about her were not glued down the way opinions about Biden were and are. But I think the voters in the middle (14 percent by some measures) and the voters vacillating between Harris, Stein, and West (maybe 3 percent?) are still not sure what they think about Harris-Walz. So there will be some movement back and forth between now and November.
As to where we are now, the polls say to me – tie.
I say keep the foot on the gas until these are +20% leads.
I say keep the foot down until November 6.
Absolutely. He will be a millstone around the neck of the GOP until he is dead, and only then will they start being able to distance themselves from him and his unending stream of logorrhea. I am praying he lives to 120.
+9 is already “FATALITY,” as they say in Mortal Kombat, but yes, I wouldn’t mind a few 15s and 20s.
With John Kerry, they had a lot of time for their Swift Boat attacks to work and they don’t have nearly the same amount of time for it to work on Walz. The mud they’re slinging doesn’t appear to be sticking and they’re going to have to scramble in the hopes of finding something, anything, that will stick to Walz between now and November.
Yes, and that’s only the VP candidate anyway. But I can understand their desire to smear him, since he’s totally kicking their ass!
Let’s talk when the 538 running AVERAGE for WI, MI, and PA — within each of the three — is at least 9%. Not just one poll.
(Right now, they’re 2, 3, and 1).
Until then, yes — a coin toss. Really.
(I love all your posts — well written, upbeat, got me through some hard times a couple months ago — but let’s not spread mistaken ideas about polling).
I don’t think anyone here is being complacent.
BUT I do see some folks being cocky about winning and it is way way way too early for that.
Well, thank you.
I wasn’t trying to present mistaken information. I just get frustrated when people say “it’s a tie” when the aggregators themselves are not calling it a tie, and saying “it’s all in the margin of error” when that’s no longer the case.
Now I think it’s fine to think/say the following:
But just to blithely state, “It’s a tie,” as though that’s a fact is not helpful, IMO.
No one here is saying this. Trump and his cronies are not above doing all manner of evil to screw over Harris. I am not fearful or filled with despair but I don’t trust those fuckers or their allies in the media.
Momentum can shift and lies can take hold and poison the race. Look up Chris LaCivita. The man is a master of dirty tricks and is running the Trump campaign.
Hope and positive rhetoric can go a long way so I would say the Harris campaign is on the right track but we are nowhere near the finish line yet.
Whereas I am advocating vicious and maybe even ridiculous overkill to the point of being able to look back after the election and saying “Gosh and golly, I almost feel slightly guilty. Oh, well-Time to feed the ocelot.”
The polls show a tie if you allow for a small shy Trumper effect as was seen in 2016 and 2020.
Also, state level polling has a bigger mean error than national polling.
That’s why I see a current tie, but it is fair to see it otherwise.
One thing I am more sure of — trying really, really hard does not win elections.
I love it, as it plays wonderfully well against the Harris chant of “We’re not going back!”
Better to say trying really hard is not sufficient to win elections. But it does help.
Well, “most” yes, but
https://www.justice.gov/usao-dc/36-months-jan-6-attack-capitol-0#:~:text=Approximately%20718%20individuals%20have%20pleaded,have%20pleaded%20guilty%20to%20misdemeanors.
Trials:
** 139 individuals have been found guilty at contested trials, including 3 who were found guilty in the Superior Court of the District of Columbia. Another 32 individuals have been convicted following an agreed-upon set of facts. 76 of these 171 defendants were found guilty of assaulting, resisting, or impeding officers and/or obstructing officers during a civil disorder, which are felony offenses, including one who has been sentenced to more than 14 years in prison.*
and-
https://www.axios.com/2024/03/07/trump-associates-prison-sentence-crimes-list
No less than EIGHT trump associates have been sentenced to prison.
and then-
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/many-trumps-orbit-have-faced-criminal-charges-2023-02-16/
Remember- “every accusation is a confession”- and “Biden crime family”?
So I will accept “most” haven’t committed any felonies, but I think we can state- Many have committed many felonies.
You know altho I despise trump, I dont see any point in name calling, I just use- *trump"
Well, Biden was also always within the MoE, but on the lower end of the MoE. It is promising to see Harris on the high end.
Oh, I was confident here- Lyndon Baines Johnson over Barry Goldwater (1964) and Bill Clinton. Not since then.
Trump only won when he was outspent 2-1. TV ads can easily backfire.
A certain level of effort is needed to get a candidacy to be taken seriously, and Harris is already there.