I’ve responded to this line about fifty times at this point! 
She may be leading in a lot of polls, but in most of them the lead looks like right around MoE.
The recent swing state polling is still within the margin of error, unless I’ve missed something.
edit: sniped by @eschereal! I’ll add that even removing MOE as a consideration, the average polling leads would give her just enough electoral votes to win with no room for error.
The aggregators have her up, etc.
I am not counting on anything, since the untoward events factor will not be gone until after election day. But it’s not currently a statistical tie, and in terms of vectors, it’s Harris rising, Trump plummeting.
Let’s just say we have reason to be cautiously optimistic at this point in time.
I would agree with this, DJT is running a garbage campaign, but if he keeps chipping away at the right swing states, and she fails to maintain the surge, things could flip.
Though I would push back against all the 2016 fear-mongering. We can’t dwell on that forever, nor we’re saying that Dems can never be excited about a candidate or about winning ever again. Yes don’t get complacent, but let people be excited and joyful, it’s hard to win a race without that energy.
One problem with saying this is that the margin of error is big enough that a huge amount of polling can be ignored or invalidated in this way.
Let me put it this way: I sure didn’t feel that Biden was going to win, even though most (all?) of the relevant polls were within the margin of error.
Also, I have seen some individual polls for swing states in which Harris was outside the margin of error, but I’m not prepared to cite.
Is he “chipping away” at them now, however? Harris is up in polling of most swing states, currently.
As a scientist, all I can say is Never Rely On Your Feelings.
As a writer, all I can say is, Scroll up.
I think he is done.
My assumption with Biden was his voters would have come home when push came to shove. There was a lack of enthusiasm for his re-election because of his age. I think the quote he often used about “compare me to the alternative, not the almighty” would have hit home when it mattered and people understood the alternative really is Trump.
You see with a switch how that’s completely swung the enthusiasm pendulum around. Harris hasn’t really said anything new about what her policy differences would be, and conservatives are complaining she is being treated in the media like an insurgent rather than the incumbent vice president (see the border czar stuff which falls along the line of “you’re in office right now and aren’t doing anything to secure the border”). But guess what, people really dislike Trump and what his political project represents and more importantly now what it spawned. Non-MAGA republicans are losing primaries and being replaced by lunatics. Moderates turned out for Biden in 2020, stopped the hyped up impending red wave in 2022, and I think will turn out for Harris in November.
Good news and optimism are evil and must be rejected wholeheartedly! Otherwise you will get complacent and lose!
Bad news only! Fear only! Despair only! That’s the only way to win!
Campaigning in support of Captain Straw, are we?
I don’t think there’s a single thread on the internet with any sort of good news for Harris that does not have at least one person saying to ignore the news because it could make people complacent.
Indeed. It’s fatiguing.
Okay, I didn’t have a cite earlier but here is a new poll in which Harris is beating Trump beyond the margin of error in Wisconsin and Michigan:
I am not saying ignore the news. I am advocating cautious optimism 
The last time I was this confident of a Democratic presidential victory was 2016.
Yikes. 
It’s not cowardly by 21st century normie standards. But I think that the standards for a caudillo/strongman, who needs to keep focus on himself, are different.
Morally, it was correct to have the crowd exit so authorities could check for bombs planted. I’m just saying that he didn’t act his part, and if he loses, that will be part of the explanation.