Why not just tell the truth? That Trump killed a bipartisan border bill. Trump put his personal interest ahead of the security of the United States.
The border issue is not going to decide the election. I believe that the people who think that illegal immigration is the number one issue in the US are the same ones that voted for DJT in 2016 and 2020 and will do so again in 2024. Easy way to tell is this- if anyone uses the term “illegals” to describe immigrants, they 100% are MAGA Republicans. If one person every century crossed the border, they’d still be having conniption fits. The motivation is racism. But racists already vote MAGA anyway, so there aren’t any votes to be had by appeasing the racists.
Harris was not the “border czar”. She was tasked with heading diplomatic efforts to reduce the need for emigration from Central American nations. As always, diplomatic efforts take time. But to say she was the border czar and did nothing is unfair and inaccurate.
The criticism that Harris had 3 1/2 years to fix the nation’s problems is beyond silly. Name one thing Mike Pence did as VP before Jan 6, 2021.
Once again, if people insist on using the fake yardsticks pushed by the RW propaganda machine, legit politicians of any flavor will fall short, and probably far short.
There is the small valid point that the RW propaganda machine has spent years and billions of dollars to inject these false yardsticks into many voters. So for those voters, BS measurements are the only measurements they know or understand. And on a timeline of less than decades, those voters are not reachable, so don’t bother trying. Recruit a new voter to counteract their misguided vote, don’t try to recruit them into changing their misguided vote.
The counterattack is not tit-for-tat. There’s no way in a debate sound-bite to offset decades of continuous indoctrination.
As to the border / immigration specifically I would keep harping on one message: We, Ds & Rs alike, had a mutually agreeable solution. Trump torpedoed it from the sidelines because he’d rather have millions of immigrants can he bitch about than have the problem solved. How nice for him. Not so nice for any other Americans, D or R.
Re the honeymoon period:
Owing to recent circumstances, Harris is one of the most unusual candidates in American political history. Even we Liberals were debating on this board about a year ago whether she could win in 2028, and most here were down on her chances (I was completely enthusiastic). So I think it’s fair to say that her polling at this stage exceeds expectations to quite a high degree. Will she get a significant convention bounce, or has her sudden candidacy already felt like a mini convention in its own right, thereby reducing the bounce? I think it could go either way. I can also imagine both her hitting her ceiling soon and surging even higher. What I don’t think will happen is Harris suddenly falling due to a gaffe or Republican dirty trick.
But what further complicates things is Trump himself. He is not “steady state Trump” right now. I watched clips from his North Carolina “economic speech” yesterday. The speech itself was that of an imbecile, but at least he seemed a bit peppier than on other days, in which he seems deceased. If Trump can avoid the spiral and at least maintain his dickish energy, then I think he has a chance. If he implodes, then obviously he doesn’t.
So it’s a feedback loop. The better Harris does, the worse Trump does. Trump needs to control his role in that loop better. Can he do it? I have my doubts.
Re immigration:
There is one way in which Biden was a shitty president and really shitty candidate: communication. A long, long time ago, he should have had a press conference on immigration and talked about, you know, numbers, which both Republicans and Democrats fail to use when talking about this issue (and most things, actually).
Another important thing that I have not seen mentioned here is that covid had an effect on immigration, and so Trump’s numbers were probably different from the norm for that reason. But I’m not an expert on that.
Immigration is the issue on which the GOP is most nazi-like. They might as well be screaming Juden! Juden! Juden! for all the subtlety they exhibit. It’s hard to counter such hate speech with anything rational.
I think it would be smart for Harris to say something along the following lines (and she has in fact said some things already):
- We’ve had some key successes but did a poor job of communicating them. As president, I will hold regular press conferences to communicate to the American people how we are doing on this issue.
- As Democrats, we take a commpassionate approach to the people who want to come into our country. The Republicans do not. Remember child separation? We will continue to refine our approach while respecting the human rights of migrants.
- We worked with Republicans on a solution with real teeth, but Donald Trump killed the bill in order to improve his own political fortunes. As president, I will get that bill passed and continue to refine our approach going forward.
I am unsure why this oughtn’t be the very first sentence in response to any question about immigration.
“after Trump loses, he will no longer care about the border bill, and we can get it passed.”
Because many progressives were opposed to the “bipartisan compromise” legislation they felt would undermine due process rights for asylum seekers while doing nothing to help Dreamers and other long-term residents normalize their status.
And yet despite that opposition, a bill was put through by Democrats, until Trump single-handedly stopped it. Trump does not care about the border. He is lying when he says otherwise and there is evidence. He also lies when he said he almost finished the wall.
Trump is actually vulnerable on border issues. The only reason to not attack him on it is because Americans don’t actually care much about it.
Or like telling coal miners he’ll get their jobs back once we clean up all the coal.
I’m not sure what you mean by a bill was “put through” – the bill failed to overcome a filibuster in the Senate with six Democrats voting against cloture. Anyway, my point is that “Trump stopped us from fixing this” is not as clean a message for Harris pursue as one might assume.
Yep. That time was unique and it is gone.
I think harris will win, but with the usual GOP dirty tricks, it will be very close.
The whole “Harris was the border czar” is a GOP lie. The only reason why border crossing were up- is Covid. The border was kinda shut during the pandemic.
She is the VICE President. The “bucket of warm spit” position. and trump campaigned like crazy in 2020.
I know. And you know what- I dont give a rats ass about “border crossings”. Those people come here to work hard at jobs American dont want to do. Let them come- screen them, sure, but "Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free"
Remember this thing called the Covid Pandemic? 
Right.
They had negotiated a deal in the Senate and even got Mitch McConnell on board. Yet when it went to vote, only 4 Republicans approved it. It would have passed were it not for Trump’s influence.
It’s a very clean message that Trump is full of it when he says he is concerned about the border and he will fix it. No he won’t. He doesn’t give a crap.
No. Harris’s assignment was to “lead the White House effort to tackle the migration challenge at the U.S. southern border and work with Central American nations to address root causes of the problem.” Either she or the Biden administration later chose to focus on the second half of the assignment and not the first. The announcement of her assignment in March 2021 was done as a staged event. It was clearly meant to boost her profile and give her a significant policy responsibility. The main focus of that policy was to reduce the number of illegal immigrants. That’s why “lead the White House effort to tackle the migration challenge at the U.S. southern border” was in the first part of the task description.
You guys love cheerleading, so this is what actual cheerleading looks like:
New Cook Political Report polling looks horrendous for Trump, and this guy says that, if the election were held today, Harris would win in a landslide. Plus, he only sees her going up from here.
First, it’s a good, pretty quick video on this polling, so it’s worth watching IMHO. But I also want to point out that a lot of people like this guy, who says he’s been reporting on politics for 20 years, are a lot more up on Harris than even I am in this thread.
There’s a ton of dour, pessimistic posts here. Which is OK, but it’s not necessarily the conventional wisdom among people in the know out there.
Moderating:
Let’s not joke about rape. We’re trying to get away from that sort of thing here.
No warning issued.
I have seen none. Realistic ones, yes. A “dour, pessimistic post” would be “Harris has little chance of winning,” and no one that I’ve seen has claimed that.
We’re all thrilled – to the point of real tears, speaking for myself – at the turn of events in these past three weeks.
But some of us have a better feel (based on experiential knowledge) for how polls work and what they mean and don’t mean. It’s possible to be optimistic, thrilled, eager, psyched up, overjoyed – AND to caution that this is far from over, and we all need to get out and vote, and many of us need to do more (write letters, contribute funds for advertising, talk to our friends…), to make this happen.
Good grief. That’s a quote from the AP’s top-level summary, not the details. Here’s the press release from the White House.
Here’s the original executive order:
That single article’s top-level summary can, if you squint, be read to be talking about “border security.” But everything else in that article, as well as in the primary sources, as well as in what everyone directly involved in the effort says, contradicts that interpretation.
You would think that math adds up, but people are weird and don’t always conform to expectations.
Until Harris is polling above the margin of error in states totalling more than 270 points, I will remain cautiously optimistic. But to bring it back to this thread about Trump, his supporters should be pessimistic right now.
Same here, and even if that were happening today we are still months away.
If she is polling above the margin of error a week before the election I’ll be ecstatic.
If I was a Trump supporter… Well, I’d say I’d be worried, but honestly I don’t know what kind of information I’d be allowing myself to consume anyway, since I’m a Trump supporter, so I have no idea how I’d feel.