Indeed so.
Engaging at hubris is incredibly premature. Don’t slow down to take selfies with onlookers before crossing the finish line.
I was listening to Mark Levin yesterday. He’s normally unhinged, but especially so now. He was literally spitting mad. So, “pessimistic” puts in mildly.
Well above, me thinks.
That really isn’t the standard, however. Sure, polling above the margin of error in all swing states is pretty definitive, but being positive in all or most swing states but within the margin of error can still be statistically quite impressive, since the chance that the candidate is actually underwater in all of them is low. Further, there are correlations between the polling results of various states based on historical data, such that positive results among two or more make it less likely that all of these results are in error.
The aggregators take all of these things into consideration–and a lot more. That doesn’t mean they are automatically correct, however. I’m just saying that a layperson saying, “I’ll feel positive when Harris is up 15% or more in all swing states” (an exaggeration, mind you), is just that: a layperson’s gut check. This applies to my own opinion as well, of course.
I’m curious, too, about how they actually feel right now. I haven’t seen polling on that yet.
If, however, we were to take the same personalities in this thread working from the same logic and imagine that we were all Trump supporters, I can guarantee that there would a lot of rending of garments and gnashing of teeth. The same people saying it’s a tie or a tossup (discounting Harris’s chances) would be extremely worried that Trump was going to lose.
I’m talking about what it would take for me to feel confident and not worry about it. So I’m telling you, that is the standard. 
I get it. It’s a personal standard. But people reading this thread can get the impression that, if a bunch of smart Liberals think this way, then it must be true. I think the mood in this thread is well below that of professional Liberal political analysts and commentators.
Yeah. trump and his wacky followers is a threat that really needs to be nuked from orbit to be sure. Anything less than total ridiculous overkill has too large a chance of turning out to be underkill.
I’ll be breathing easier after I see the total ridiculous overkill. And not before.
Some of my desire for gross overkill is strategic.
If trump almost wins, the main lesson the Reactionary Wacko Traitors will take away was that RWT is a popular and potentially winning formula, but that aging rapidly seniling-out trump didn’t have quite enough left in the tank to deliver. So from now to 2028 they’ll be in a full court press to invent a newer, younger, more vigorous, more reactionary wacko to lead the MAGAty masses to the Promised Land. And we’ll be having these same kinds of discussions about the runaway RWTs 4 years hence.
OTOH, if trump goes down in massive ignominy, as does any down-ballot candidate with particularly MAGAty credentials, the lesson the Right in general will take from that may be that RWT / MAGA really is a bridge too far and them tacking back to e.g. 2010-style conservatism is more likely to lead to success in 2028.
I mean, if that’s the case, I can’t see that as anything but a good thing.
I agree with the nuke-from-orbit strategy.
The thing is that massive enthusiasm–the Kamala-Walz joy–on our side is a very potent weapon against the fascists. It’s probably the best trajectory for the nuke to follow.
Given that Hillary was doing better than this in the polls in 2016, no relaxation here until Nate et al. give a 90% chance and we’re too close to the election for events to play in (so like the day before the election).
I agree with Aeschines that the optimism and joy is itself part of the power pushing the polls into positive p… p… territory.
Be enthused, be confident, be cheery…AND work to GET OUT THE VOTE!
(The “mood” in this thread, and with professional Liberal commentators, is joyful. That’s our hearts talking, and it’s real, and justified. But we can use our heads, too at the same time. Nothing “pessimistic” about understanding how polls work, what they’re telling us and not telling us, and allocating resources – our time, our money, our communications – based on this.)
Nope.
If one is wrong for a systemic sort of error then likely they all are.
The polls are not separate dice rolls.
Interesting to reflect on the psychology of the moment here - getting to this point in the polls from where things were last month feels great and joyous. But getting to this same approx (or better) polling point in 2016 felt terrible because it was coming down from the other direction.
Answering the thread question, Harris can keep doing this:
Sorry, I meant that if, say, two were high, and one was low, then it is less likely that the lower one is actually low. And vice versa.
Yeah? Biden got the deal done with Putin, and today a historic negotiation of drug prices was announced.
One could be in worse company.
Biden was unpopular (to the extent he was) simply because many feared he would lose to Trump. No one who is going to vote for Harris had any beef with Biden’s policies. Biden’s presidency has been an unqualified success, and I’m happy to see him campaigning with Harris.
Exactly right.
This only makes sense for people who were already committed to vote against Trump. They will not determine the election.
The Biden Approval Rolling Average is still close to the worst it has ever been, while Harris numbers are the best since her 2021 honeymoon. Biden is politically toxic, explaining why he had to drop out.
If true, Harris might as well give up. But she is not giving up and is at least giving the impression of being more of a border hawk. Another policy change is tax on tips. Maybe she is sincere, maybe not, but she had to differentiate herself by more than just being younger.
The only people who are going to like seeing Harris with Biden are already voting for her.
P.S. My last sentence is not literally true, but damn close.
She and Biden both want a secure border. I’m not sure what “border hawk” is.
Anyway, I’m not saying she can’t have fresh agenda, but only that Joe Biden is beloved and his occasional appearances with her can only help. ETA: Especially in PA, MI, and WI.