Her ads give the impression of being “tough” AKA hawkish. Check links from here:
Harris’ campaign advertisements portray tough-on-immigration stance
Biden’s approval - disapproval, at 538, is minus 18 percent. Trump is at minus 9 percent. If Biden is beloved, Trump is more beloved!
Actually, neither is beloved by swing/uncertain voters.
Also, Biden will make gaffes if he keeps appearing with Harris. That sure won’t help.
@DSeid is correct. Systemic error doesn’t work the way you’re thinking. Your description is how independent errors work. If there’s an unknown systemic error, everything can be off in the same direction.
Compare weighing squirmy toddlers. Each measured weight is going to have an error independent of the other toddlers’ errors. But if the scale is not level, each measurement will be off by a similar amount.
This is the lesson Nate Silver taught us in 2016, but it’s hard to internalize.
So true!!
I think it’s difficult to pick out the various factors. Is it policy? Age? Communication style (or lack thereof)? Perceived connection to perceived bad economy? Etc.
I think that Biden has been a highly effective politician on policy and has demonstrated an exceptional ability to get things done despite GOP control of the House. But he has been a poor communicator and cheerleader for America. Plus, dude is old.
I don’t think Biden has made any significant gaffes, though there have been many times where he has been close to unable to speak at all.
All of it is very complicated, and I don’t pretend to be an actuary or statistician. Silver himself is OK. I don’t hold him in as high esteem as others do here. But I do consider his perspective to be a data point worth raising in discussions like this.
OK, just saw this. Holy shit, guys, take a look:
And they say Harris isn’t doing interviews? This is worth 100x a bullshit MSM interview.
Some thoughts:
If these guys lose to dogshit Trump and Vance, it will at least be an interesting story about how such a thing is even possible. Right now, they are doing everything right.
I have no fucking idea of what your point is here.
Is that your point- she should distance herself from Biden? That would be a terrible idea.
There is no “they”- it is the NYT. And this doesnt could for the NYT, they insist she has to give them an exclusive, or they will attack her.
Yep. Idiots.
That is my point.
Biden is by some measures — I say most measures — the least popular first term president since polling began. This is from May, and it has not gotten better:
Fact Check: Multiple Polls Say Biden Is Least Popular US President in 70 Years?
Harris should not tear down a mentor swing voters mostly see as a doddering old man guilty of causing an inflation spurt. But almost any Democratic candidate not assured of victory in November needs to distance themselves from our extremely unpopular president.
P.S. I’m not saying Harris should completely shun him. That would look cruel. Just keep it to a minimum. I actually think she is doing that already.
P.P.S. Remember when Harris being less slightly popular than Biden was given as a reason for not making her the nominee? The main reason she was so unpopular was association with Joe Biden.
Thanks for the link, despite being in the wrong thread. 
I’m linking to it on Facebook to push to my right-wing friends. It really shows how they are regular people.
Well, he’s definitely working hard to lock in the military vote.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/08/15/2024-election-campaign-updates-harris-trump/#link-XYNJJRNQBJGERNKZFNMBXO6M2U
Wow. My immediate reaction is – bigger mistake even than picking Vance.
Normally when Trump says something attention-getting and outrageous, I think that he must know what he is doing. But I find no way to spin this in a way that that would explain how he can win.
Yep, cool! I mean, it shows what Trump is up against at this point.
That is extremely on crack.
The depressing thing is that this is consistent with how he has disparaged the military for years. Yet, here we are. So I’m not sure how much it will hurt him, if at all.
Trump has been spitting on members of the Armed Forces of the United States for a long, long time. The earliest I remember is him insulting John McCain for getting shot down. His followers, many of whom claim to be patrotic pro-military types, are fine with it. I don’t know why insulting members of the military now would make any difference, but then maybe Trump Fatigue Syndrom is starting to take effect. Maybe people are just sick of Trump and what he got away with in 2015 isn’t going to work in 2024.
One can only hope.
In politics, the less you plan to do about something, the more you must talk about it.
Not really, see they poll MAGAs too (almost half), and MAGAs will say Biden rates terrible, awful no good, 0 out of 10. Whereas honest Democrats with say he is doing the best he can with a recalcitrant congress- maybe a 7.
This is purely a product of MAGA hate. It has nothing to do with reality.
Note that Historians rate trump as the worst president ever.
If you take a look at current approval polls, Biden is a couple points worse than trump.
And no swing voters do not think that- MAGAs do, and of course Biden curbed inflation, trump caused it.
This seems to me an actual new low.
The “suckers and losers” thing was a private remark to Gen. John Kelly. I’m sure Trump said it, but he has repeatedly denied it.
The statement about POW’s was a political put-down of John McCain. Or, at least, if inclined to forgive Trump, you could think of it that way.
By contrast, I cannot see any excuse for dissing the Medal of Honor winners.
I think his real intended point was to indirectly apologize to Miriam Adelson, a big GOP campaign contributor he gave the Presidential Medal of Freedom to but has lately insulted. He wanted to flatter her, and did. No one will see this as an excuse.
I’m not saying Trump will lose millions of votes over this. But tens of thousands, yes.
.